This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
This article will exclude the early games (CHI/DET, TOR/MIA, IND/PHI) from consideration and instead focus on the six-game slate available later in the day.
Sunday's main slate gives us James Harden ($11,300) headlining the action against the Mavericks, and his three-game average of 65 DKFP against Dallas is a reliable indicator that he'll beat value in this intra-state road matchup. The award for highest O/U on the night goes to the PHO/GS matchup at 235, but the Warriors are 17-point favorites in this game, and I expect neither Kevin Durant ($9,200) nor Stephen Curry ($9,100) to see more than 30 minutes in a contest that could quickly get out of hand. As a result, I don't see either player reaching into the 50-plus DKFP range and are poor candidates tonight.
This means that we'll likely have to look elsewhere for a player to compliment Harden at the higher price points, and at first glance, I think a certain Pelican is a great idea for that job (see below).
Here are some potentially exploitable injury situations tonight. All ongoing injury scenarios won't be mentioned.
Jrue Holiday (abdomen) OUT: Few things have crystallized here, as both Frank Jackson ($4,200) and Ian Clark ($3,400) have seen substantial minutes in Holiday's absence. Elfrid Payton ($5,800) remains the safe choice at guard, but guys like Kenrich Williams ($4,900) have also stepped in to pick up the slack.
Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) QUESTIONABLE: Towns had a brilliant game last night and helped me cash in several lineups. I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota exercise caution and sit their star center. If he's unable to go, expect Taj Gibson ($4,100) to start under center, with Dario Saric ($4,000) providing extra support.
Andrew Wiggins (thigh) QUESTIONABLE: Keita Bates-Diop ($3,100) started in Wiggins' place and saw 23 minutes on the court Saturday. I think this situation also benefits Saric, although Bates-Diop is a candidate to beat value if Wiggins can't go.
Dewayne Dedmon (knee) QUESTIONABLE: Dedmon didn't play Saturday, and it was all John Collins in the frontcourt for Atlanta in a heartbreaking two-point loss to Brooklyn. Collins only played 29 minutes, so I expect him to be ok on this back-to-back, but you can't count out guys like Alex Len ($5,600), Taurean Prince ($4,400) and Vince Carter ($3,800) as value-beating candidates if Dedmon sits.
Rudy Gay (illness) QUESTIONABLE: If Gay doesn't play I think the rest of the usual starting five will absorb a lot of his production, but Davis Bertans ($3,400) would likely draw the start if Gay is absent.
GUARDS
DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. MIL ($8,200): DeRozan always seems to show up for the big games, and he lit up the Bucks for 52 DKFP when they first met this season. I honestly think that DeRozan's price is a little high in relation to his typical value but we can take the ceiling potential here and at least hope for something in the high-40 DKFP range.
Derrick White, SA vs. MIL ($6,300): It's not often that you'll see me stack up a host of Spurs, but White has consistently outperformed his salary in three of his last four games. He's got just enough potential to warrant a separate mention, although I originally bunched him in with DeRozan as an alternate option.
Eric Gordon, HOU at DAL ($5,100): I do like Elfrid Payton down here, but I think Eric Gordon is a great option, as he should get some regular minutes and potentially a good bit of garbage time if Houston ends up running away with this game. A 30 DKFP total would make rostering Gordon an excellent play, and that's entirely possible if he can outperform his modest 25 percent 3-point percentage against Dallas this season.
Additional guards to consider: Chris Paul, HOU at DAL ($7,400), Terrence Ross, ORL at MEM ($4,800)
FORWARDS
Julius Randle, NO at ATL ($8,500): Atlanta suffered a tough loss last night, and they should be a little sluggish coming out of the gate. Randle was the Pelican I hinted at earlier in the article. We have no game history for Randle against the Hawks this season, but with Anthony Davis' status in question, I think you can confidently slot Randle at any eligible spot tonight, especially when you consider Towns' questionable status. And a face-down game for Vucevic. I realize I'm slotting him at forward, but that's due to value spots I see further down at that position.
Khris Middleton, MIL at SA ($7,100): Middleton saw only 29 minutes in last night's blowout, so I expect him to be a focal point of the offense in tonight's game. I was correct in my prediction that Giannis wouldn't hit 5x value on Saturday, and I think that is a likely outcome again this evening. If I can get 42 DKFP or more out of Middleton, I'd be happy with this play.
Kelly Oubre, PHO at GS ($6,400): Oubre's been one of the pleasant surprises in the second half of the season, and it seems like I'm regularly giving him an endorsement whenever the Suns are on the slate. There's good reason for it, as he still comes at a reasonable price that can match his value regularly, and is still surprisingly under-owned. On this smaller slate that probably won't be the case, but I still like his potential against the Warriors as he's averaged 36 DKFP over two games against last year's champs.
Additional forwards to consider: Dario Saric, MIN vs. NY ($4,000), Ivan Rabb, MEM vs. ORL ($3,800)
CENTERS
Dwight Powell, DAL vs. HOU ($,6300): Powell still sits at a price where I'm comfortable giving him a look in many of my lineups. While he doesn't have a great history against the Rockets, his recent averages have landed right at 6x value. With Maxi Kleber out, Powell should also see a full complement of minutes on Sunday.
DeAndre Jordan, NY at MIN ($6,100): Although Vucevic is on the borderline for me, the center section seems to be populated by some bloated pricing where I'll be hard pressed to find value-beating spots. This leads me to the potential injury exploitation for Jordan if Towns ends up sitting. It might very well be a suitable play even if Towns suits up as he notched a 46 DKFP score with the usual T-Wolves lineup in his last game against them. Noah Vonleh is also out tonight, giving Jordan more opportunity than usual.
Draymond Green, GS vs. PHO ($5,800): This is an odd place to slot Green, but Cousins' price has become too cost -prohibitive, and I would still like to have some of the Warriors' action against the Suns. As I said, Curry and Durant are unlikely to hit value, and while Klay Thompson might be worthy of consideration, Green seems to be worthy of an endorsement despite a mediocre history against Phoenix.
