This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
For the sake of this article, I am excluding three of the games available on the early side of the slate and instead focus on the four games available at the normal tip-off time. There is currently no game on the site where you can play all seven contests.
There are two schools of thought regarding light slates like the four-game offering we have on Sunday. Most novice and intermediate players prefer a slate like this due to the perceived simplicity of the selection process. While I can get on board with that line of thinking from a cash-game perspective, I think a tournament play is incredibly hard to construct due to the necessity of contrarian picks you need to distinguish yourself from the field. If you throw up a cash game lineup in a GPP on this slate there's a high likelihood that you won't cash. Usually, the number of games available dictate my cash-to-tournament ratio, and with only four to choose from, my cash games skew higher.
There really isn't a marquee game on Sunday from a fan perspective, but all four games are brimming with options. My favorite game is the Pelicans-Mavericks matchup, which features a hybrid of chalk and value plays to choose from, but the highest-paced game is the Nets-Clippers game which clocks in at a speedy O/U line of 226.
Our high-priced candidates on Sunday are headlined by Anthony Davis ($11,700), who is a virtual must-play in cash games. You can make an argument to leave him off in GPPs and instead feature Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,000) or Joel Embiid ($10,200), but neither player offers the kind of ceiling you could get with Davis against the Kings. A Davis/Embiid stack can be doable, but it is more difficult than usual to take the stars-scrubs approach on a thin slate like this one.
I'm offering one bit of news regarding the Knicks before I go to my selections. The Twittersphere reports that changes will soon be coming to the Knicks lineup moving forward. As they head into tank mode I can only assume that means more youth will be injected into the game. Emmanuel Mudiay is already starting, and we may end up seeing more of Frank Nitilikina, Troy Williams and Damyean Dotson if our hypothesis holds true. It may not mean that at all though, so the Knicks' player usage is definitely something to monitor.
I'll now highlight three players at each position, and all categories will feature a small list of additional players that holds equal weight in my predictions. I will endeavor to include at least one value play at each spot,
GUARDS
Jrue Holiday, NO at DAL ($8,200): It's hard to argue against Holiday in this fast-paced matchup as the dynamic guard has been out of his mind since the All-Star break, averaging 46.5 DKFP over the past four games. While Dallas will slow this game down and Holiday put up two games at around the 33 DKFP mark against them, both of those games occurred with DeMarcus Cousins on the court. Since Boogie's departure, Jrue's usage and FP per 48-minute averages have shot up, so I'd expect a different outcome on Sunday.
Dennis Smith Jr., DAL vs. NO ($6,700): While I've held the belief that Smith has been historically overpriced all season, I can find a few reasons to slide him into my lineups on Sunday. New Orleans will force Dallas to speed up, and Smith enjoyed the fruits of that labor by throwing up his only triple-double of the season against New Orleans back in December. This gives me the potential ceiling I'm looking for at this price point.
Emmanuel Mudiay, NY at SAC ($5,300): Both Mudiay and Trey Burke are priced the same now, and while it's been a coin-flip in recent weeks, I think you have to start giving the nod to Mudiay. I recently used a tortoise-hare metaphor with regard to these two, and I think Mudiay (the tortoise) is definitely on his way to winning this one.
Other guards to consider: Lou Williams, LAC vs. BKN ($7,700), De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. NY ($5,700), Milos Teodosic, LAC vs. BKN ($4,700)
FORWARDS
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. PHI ($6,900): It's hard to use the word 'sneaky' with regards to picking Middleton, but those who don't do their homework could overlook this gem of a pick. He's exhibited a solid 35 DKFP floor since the break, and has put up a whopping 52.1-point average versus the Sixers over two games this season. Granted, Giannis Antetokounmpo was absent in Middleton's higher-scoring matchup, but he did put up 43 DKFP in the other game. His dual eligibility at shooting guard is also appealing, so you have five places where you can roster him.
DeMarre Carroll, BKN at LAC ($6,100): Carroll has been one of the great finds in DFS this season despite some occasional volatility. He's not the best defensive player, but he exhibits a perimeter presence that most people lack at his position, and I think his style will keep him away from Tobias Harris most of the game, who would match up well against him. A floor of 30 DKFP is totally doable on Sunday.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at LAC ($5,500): Brooklyn likes to rotate at this spot frequently, but I keep coming back to Allen because he's a superior play over any other frontcourt choice on this roster. I think Dante Cunningham has a shot at pilfering some time from Allen, but aside from that, I don't see anyone butting in. DeAndre Jordan's defensive woes are well-documented, and I think Allen will do well in this fast-paced game.
Other forwards to consider: Ben Simmons, PHI at MIL ($8,700), Tobias Harris, LAC vs. BKN ($7,200), Dario Saric, PHI at MIL ($6,000), Allen Crabbe, BKN at LAC ($5,400)
CENTERS
This spot is woefully thin, so Davis and Embiid become a lot more attractive, but here are three other options.
DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. BKN ($7,800): This is an intriguing matchup under the basket as the aforementioned Jarrett Allen will line up against him, and while I feel they are evenly matched, both should see decent totals due in large part to the number of possessions that will occur in this game. There will be plenty of missed shots to grab for both guys, and Jordan will need to snag 15 to really be effective.
Enes Kanter, NY at SAC ($7,000): Kanter's enjoyed a good history against the Kings, and it looks like Willie Cauley-Stein may miss another game. I don't think it particularly matters if he happens to suit up, though. Kanter's floor hovers at around 30 DKFP per game and if this manages to stay close, his numbers should exceed that.
Dwight Powell, DAL vs. NO ($6,200): Dallas will be throwing everything they can at Anthony Davis, and Powell should end up besting Dirk Nowitzki as the better defender against the MVP candidate. Powell is no slouch on the offensive end either, so he makes for a great value at this spot.
