This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Phoenix Suns (-2) at Dallas Mavericks (o/u 214.5)
Miami Heat (-2) at Philadelphia 76ers (o/u 207)
Given both the series history and Vegas totals, the Phoenix-Dallas matchup is clearly the better offensive environment. In cash games and smaller field tournaments, it's viable to load up on the Western Conference teams and hunt for value. However, roster rates should be driven down in Miami-Philadelphia, making it a nice option to turn towards in larger-field tournaments in the hopes of the script flipping.
Injury Situations to Monitor
The Heat continue to make a mockery of the injury report and currently have Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker, Gabe Vincent and Dewayne Dedmon listed as questionable. Dedmon appears to be the only player with a legitimate chance to miss Sunday's game as he's currently dealing with an illness. If he's sidelined, Omer Yurtseven and Markieff Morris are the potential beneficiaries.
Joel Embiid, PHI (orbital): questionable
Embiid is formally considered questionable, but he didn't suffer any reported setbacks Friday. Expect him to suit up barring additional news.
Elite Players
Luka Doncic ($11,000) is the only player on the slate with a five-digit salary, and that is deserved. He's topped 50 DK points in each of Dallas' three games against Phoenix and by far presents both the highest ceiling and floor on the slate. He's an obvious play in all contest formats.
Jimmy Butler ($8,900) is another decent option to build through. Outside of Game 3, he hasn't scored prolifically against the Sixers, but has recorded multiple steals in every matchup and has consistently racked up either rebounds or assists. Given the total of the game, I want players who can rack up DK points in many different ways, and Butler offers that profile.
Expected Chalk
Jae Crowder ($5,400) has posted some big-time performances in the series against Dallas having delivered 27.5, 33.25 and 40.75 DK so far. His salary has risen as a result, but he's still an obvious value. In cash games and smaller-field tournaments, he's an easy play due to his chalk. In larger-field tournaments, I'd be happy to move off Butler as his production has largely been powered by the fact he's shot over 60 percent from three-point range in the series. That's bound to change at some point.
Kyle Lowry ($5,600) sticks out after playing just 25 minutes in Friday's loss to Philadelphia. He chipped in with only 11 DK points, which has kept his value deflated. However, Lowry should return to a bigger role Sunday and should project very well as a result. A return to 30 DK or more wouldn't be a surprise. I'd be more willing to roster Lowry over Crowder in large-field tournaments because his role is more prominent compared to Crowder.
Tyrese Maxey ($6,700) saw his salary fall heading into Game 4, presumably due to the return of Joel Embiid. However, his performance has not dictated a drop in value and is a good bet to play at least 40 minutes, which alone is reason enough for him to get plenty of attention. Maxey's also run hot with his shot, so there's a decent chance he fails to return value – particularly if Embiid or James Harden can take over the game.
Danny Green ($4,400) was a major reason for the 76ers winning Friday as he caught fire from the field. His salary slightly ticked up, but not enough to deter a significant roster rate.
Key Values
Tobias Harris ($7,000) is the forgotten man in Philly as Maxey has gotten a lot of shine and Embiid has stolen headlines due to his questionable health. Harris has quietly done what's needed for the team by hoisting a lot of shots and scoring points in Embiid's absence the first two games. With the big man back in the mix, Harris took on a lesser scoring role but produced a combined 18 boards and assists.
Maxi Kleber ($4,900) has seen his minutes tick up in the Phoenix series, and he hit 30 minutes for only the second time this postseason on Friday. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll maintain that role Sunday, but he's valued at a point to take that chance.
We've seen Philadelphia wings take turns producing against the Heat. Furkan Korkmaz was productive early in the season while Danny Green went off for a massive effort in Game 3. Matisse Thybulle ($3,100) is going to be disregarded as a result, which makes him an optimal flyer in Game 4. He's a shot in the dark, but that's sometimes necessary in small playoff slates.
