This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
The playoffs resume after a three-day layoff, and we're down to three games for Saturday's slate after the Heat disposed of the Pacers in Game 4 on Monday. Saturday's ledger takes on some extra intrigue with the absence of Damian Lillard (knee), a development that naturally will have a major ripple effect on the fantasy outlook for many of his teammates. We'll explore that further, along with the two potential elimination scenarios and another Thunder-Rockets battle that could certainly be the best source of fantasy production overall for the day, especially since Russell Westbrook is slated to return for Houston.
We'll begin by diving into one game to focus on and one to avoid Saturday, followed by an examination of the general state of each position, a review of key injuries and a look at expected chalk plays and both under-the-radar and popular value plays to consider.
Without further ado, let's get into Saturday's slate!
Slate Overview
Game to Target
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (Projected total: 227.5 points)
This should be the closest game of the day, with oddsmakers setting the spread at a fairly narrow five points in favor of the Rockets, which are commemorating the return of Russell Westbrook from his quadriceps injury. Westbrook reportedly looked right back to his explosive self in a team scrimmage Thursday, and the extent of his layoff is such that it shouldn't have affected his conditioning too much while also giving his legs some much-needed rest. With respect to the total, consider the two teams have combined for 226 and 231 points in the last two games, and they also put up a total of 231 in Game 1 of the series, all without Westbrook available for Houston. Therefore, this number could actually be exceeded by an appreciable amount, and the game itself should definitely engender a number of stellar fantasy performances.
Game to Fade
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 225.0 points)
The Bucks have put up at least 120 points in this series thus far except for one game, and the oddsmakers are apparently expecting they should be able to replicate the feat. Therefore, we should see some solid fantasy performances from the Milwaukee side, but the question is how much of it will come from their front-line players if this contest gets out of hand early. The Magic has been stuck between 96 and 107 points in the last three contests after broadsiding Milwaukee with a 122-point tally in Game 1, so although Nikola Vucevic remains an excellent play in the ongoing absence of Aaron Gordon (hamstring), it's difficult to pinpoint where the rest of Orlando's production may come from.
Positional Breakdown
PG: We have Damian Lillard (knee) out Saturday, but the return to action of Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) certainly helps fortify the depth at the position. Chris Paul should remain a very popular option below Westbrook as well. Eric Bledsoe, Markelle Fultz and D.J. Augustin are among the options below him, but there is a bit of a blowout risk attached to their contest. One value play that could skyrocket in popularity is Anfernee Simons, who may be starting in Lillard's place at minimum price.
SG: James Harden spearheads a shooting guard pool that's once again at full health, with C.J. McCollum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton and Dennis Schroder as strong alternatives that will cost you significantly less. McCollum should particularly find himself on a ton of rosters with Lillard out, and teammate Gary Trent could certainly also be a very noteworthy value play for the same reason.
SF: LeBron James is naturally the clear-cut top option at the position, while Danilo Gallinari, Carmelo Anthony and Eric Gordon are some of your top alternatives outside of the two five-figure salary stars. Evan Fournier and Danuel House make for appealing value options.
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis make for the best 1-2 punch at the top of any position, and the latter is fully expected to play through his probable designation due to back spasms. Aaron Gordon is now definitively out of the equation, leaving the rest of the pool fairly thin in terms of upside. Jeff Green and Gary Clark have particularly delivered some solid returns on investment on multiple occasions in this series, but Green's overall usage could certainly go down with Westbrook's return.
C: Nikola Vucevic, Jusuf Nurkic and Steven Adams are the top three choices, and all can be rostered without breaking the bank. Brook Lopez arguably constitutes the best of the rest for fantasy purposes, with Hassan Whiteside and P.J. Tucker potentially offering good value.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Returning from injury: Russell Westbrook, HOU (quadriceps)
Damian Lillard, POR (knee)
Lillard will not play in Game 5 due to the right knee sprain that forced him from Monday's Game 4, as he's left the Orlando bubble to seek further treatment. His absence, which will be his ninth overall since the start of the regular season and first one of the postseason, naturally leaves a sizable void in the Blazers' starting five that CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Jusuf Nurkic will be primarily asked to fill. Anfernee Simons and Gary Trent may be the players that directly pick up Lillard's minutes, although it could be McCollum who actually takes Lillard's place at point guard.
LeBron James, LAL (groin)
James is probable with the groin soreness he's played through previous in the series.
Anthony Davis, LAL (back)
Davis is probable with the back spasms that led to him taking an early seat in Game 4. According to latest reports, he's expected to play.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (knee)
Caldwell-Pope is considered probable with right knee soreness.
Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring)
Gordon has left the bubble and is out for any remaining Magic games this postseason. Gary Clark will continue to start at power forward.
Michael Carter-Williams, ORL (foot)
Carter-Williams remains out for Game 5.
Other injuries to monitor:
Luc Mbah a Moute, HOU (knee)- OUT
Deonte Burton, OKC (illness)- QUESTIONABLE
Longer-term injuries of note: Nassir Little, POR; Zach Collins, POR
Elite Players
We have five players sporting five-figure salaries Saturday, but one of them, Lillard ($10.7K), is out of the equation due to injury. That leaves us with James Harden ($11.4K) as the most expensive option, while Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.3K) is a very close second. Lakers teammates LeBron James ($10.8K) and Anthony Davis ($10.5K) are the other two players priced over $10K, and both are fully expected to play through their probable designations, as mentioned earlier.
However, the most notable news among the top-shelf options Saturday is that Russell Westbrook ($9.9K) is back in action and reportedly looked very explosive in a scrimmage on Thursday, so it appears he's over the quadriceps injury that has kept him out since Aug. 11. He should be in excellent position to deliver a strong return on his salary if he's as healthy as he appears, and his presence could certainly make it a bit more difficult for Harden to fully deliver on his five-figure cost.
Below them, Nikola Vucevic ($9.2K) is certainly in play once more in what shapes up as a potential elimination game for the Magic and in the wake of scoring 50.5 to 63.25 DK points in three of the first four games of the series. Chris Paul ($8.1K) should once again see very elevated usage and could therefore pay off his very reasonable salary fairly comfortably. The Blazers duo of Jusuf Nurkic ($8.6K) and CJ McCollum ($8.1K) are also prime candidates to outpace their respective costs with Lillard out of action. The same could be said for Carmelo Anthony ($5,9K) who would have an even easier time producing a spectacular return when considering how much less of an investment he requires.
Expected Chalk
All of the players just listed in the prior section are certainly going to be on plenty of rosters, with the Trail Blazers potentially rivaling the popularity of some of the bigger-name, more expensive stars. The Rockets' complementary players such as Jeff Green, Danuel House and Eric Gordon that had been seen their popularity boosted by the absence of Westbrook should see their rostering percentages take a tumble, but their solid recent game logs and salary should still keep them in a fair amount of lineups.
As usual, I've also compiled the names of some sub-$6K value plays (including Anthony and a couple of his teammates) that should also find themselves on plenty of rosters and listed them under the next section.
Key Values
Danny Green, LAL vs. POR ($4,000)
You certainly won't have to worry about rostering percentages being high on Green, but the veteran guard has a couple of appealing characteristics that could make him a viable cost-savings large-field tournament play Saturday. To begin with, Green and the rest of his teammates won't have to worry about defending Damian Lillard, which could certainly help him focus more on the offensive side of the floor. The "three-and-D" asset has also been more involved offensively the last two games, taking eight shot attempts in each and draining five of eight three-point attempts during that span on his way to 19.5 and 27.0 DK points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. Green has logged 24 minutes or more in three of the first four games of the series as well and could certainly continue to benefit from facing a Blazers squad that allows the sixth-highest three-point shooting percentage (38.2) to small forwards and that he's averaged a solid 16.0 DK points against in seven overall games this season.
Wesley Matthews, MIL vs. ORL ($3,700)
Matthews always carries the risk of a dud, which is what makes him a tournament-only play. However, he's shown up nicely in a couple of games during the current series, having posted 21.0 and 22.5 DK points in Games 1 and 4, respectively. Matthews has shot between 50.0 and 66.7 percent in three of the four contests against the Magic as well, and factoring in all eight meetings versus Orlando since the start of the regular season, he's drained an outstanding 47.2 percent of his 36 three-point attempts against them. His salary is also such that he carries very little risk, and he could be a sneaky beneficiary of Milwaukee's elevated scoring expectations in this game.
Other under-the-radar value plays to consider: Luguentz Dort, OKC ($4,200); James Ennis, ORL vs. MIL ($4,100)
Popular value plays to consider: Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,900); Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,400); Jeff Green, HOU ($5,400); Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,200); Danuel House, HOU ($5,100); Terrence Ross, ORL ($5,000); D.J. Augustin, ORL ($4,800); Gary Trent, POR ($4,800); Gary Clark, ORL ($4,200); P.J. Tucker, HOU ($4,200); Anfernee Simons, POR ($4,000)
