This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIA vs. MIL (-4.5), O/U: 222.5
POR vs. DEN (-1.5), O/U: 227
The Bucks beat the Heat in overtime while the Trail Blazers comfortably handled the Nuggets in Saturday's respective Game 1s. It's pretty clear which matchup is the best target tonight. Not only does POR-DEN feature the closest spread and highest total, but DraftKings really dropped the ball with some of the participants in that game. Multiple players on both sides have significantly depressed salaries, and pairing those potential bargains with Nikola Jokic or Damian Lillard or both makes a lot of sense. It's surely to be the more popular of the two games but if it becomes a blowout, a lot of that value would likely fail. From a leverage and game-theory perspective, it would be worth the risk to take some chances on the MIA-MIL matchup. Two-game slates are much more variable and it's often surprising to see how much some players get overlooked.
Injuries to Monitor
Will Barton (hamstring) and PJ Dozier (groin): OUT
Dozier will miss the entire first round against Portland while Barton still hopes to return at some point in the series. Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers and Monte Morris will continue to see expanded roles in their absence.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)
Giannis is coming off 61 DK points in 45 minutes Saturday as the Bucks won Game 1 in overtime. The big minutes are encouraging, and so is the fact that he attempted 27 shots. Choosing between him and Jokic will be a major decision point. I don't have a strong take between the two, so I'd make the decision based on correlation and lineup construction. If you think one of the Bucks or Nuggets are significantly more likely to win, roster the guy from that team.
Nikola Jokic ($10,700)
Jokic put up 58 DK points in 35 minutes in Saturday's Game 1 loss to the Trail Blazers, despite having just one assist and recording no steals or blocks. The Nuggets are really missing Jamal Murray and Will Barton from a scoring and play-making perspective, meaning Jokic will see all the usage he can handle with the team desperate for a win. While no opposing center can truly contain him, Jusuf Nurkic is a formidable foe and has presented Jokic with a tough challenge in the past, if you're looking for a reason to fade.
Damian Lillard ($9,500)
Lillard scored 34 points and dished out 13 assists on his way to 59 DK points in Saturday's Game 1 win over the Nuggets. He's now topped 55 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games as both he and the Blazers have been playing well after some early-season struggles. He's appealing because he has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer and can be rostered for significantly less salary than Giannis or Jokic.
Expected Chalk
Goran Dragic ($5,000)
Dragic put up 31.5 DK points in 35 minutes on Saturday. His salary is still depressed after dealing with a back injury late in the season, and it's much too cheap if he's going to see 30-plus minutes again. There isn't much that stands out for cheap value tonight and that makes Dragic even more appealing, and likely quite popular as a result.
Value Picks
Jimmy Butler ($8,500)
Butler scored 47 DK points in Game 1, despite shooting just 4-for-22 from the field. His salary is inexplicably depressed and he should continue to see a bump in minutes and usage for the playoffs. He definitely has triple-double upside in this matchup, I'm likely to roster him.
Jrue Holiday ($7,700)
Holiday has put up 43-plus DK points in three consecutive games and he's recorded a double-double in each of them. I'd expect him to continue to see more usage as the games become more important. He's almost always less popular than he should be.
CJ McCollum ($7,300)
For no reason at all, McCollum has seen his salary drop to its lowest point in some time. He was $8,300 on May 7th. He should see 40-plus minutes and 20-plus shots if the game stays close and has considerable upside for a reduced salary.
Michael Porter ($7,000)
Porter is another play who's salary doesn't make sense. He was $8,700 only 10 days ago and nothing has changed for the Nuggets. They need his scoring. The drop in salary is drastic, and I'd expect that makes him relatively popular.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700)
Sticking with the theme, Nurkic is just way too cheap. He's put up 40-plus DK points in four of his last five games and his minutes become safer in the playoffs. I'd expect him to be popular and rightfully so.
Robert Covington ($4,400) and Carmelo Anthony ($4,300)
On a slate that lacks cheap value, both Covington and Anthony have upside for their salaries. Anthony took 12 shots and made four three-pointers on his way to 27.25 DK points Saturday. He's seen 22-plus minutes in four consecutive games and he's who'd I'd lean toward. Covington is probably safer though.
