This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
LAC (-2.5) vs. DAL, O/U: 216.5
Many predicted the Mavericks would change their starting lineup for Game 5 after getting blown out by the Clippers in Game 4. Few guessed it would be Boban Marjanovic getting the nod as Dallas pulled off the upset on Wednesday to take a 3-2 lead in the series.
With both teams expected to roll out the same starters tonight, it's important to look at the minutes and rotations from Wednesday. Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway and Dorian Finney-Smith saw 40-plus minutes while Dwight Powell (22) and Maxi Kleber (19) were the only reserves that logged significant time. For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris and Paul George played 40 minutes while Rajon Rondo (21), Ivica Zubac (20) and Terance Mann (15) were the only bench players to see the floor. Those are some pretty tight rotations and it's reasonable to think something similar happens tonight, assuming identical starting lineups. It's also reasonable to conceive the Clippers will do some things differently after a disappointing home loss.
Whatever you believe happens, build lineups that fit a specific game script as opposed to just rostering the best projected players. Take some chances to get different in the large field tournaments and try to avoid the chalky lineups that will be most duplicated.
Injuries to Monitor
Serge Ibaka (back): DOUBTFUL
Ibaka hasn't played since Game 2 when he saw just six minutes off the bench. Nicolas Batum has started consecutive games at center as the Clippers have moved to a smaller lineup.
Elite Players
PG/SF:
Luka Doncic ($12,800) was incredible in Game 5 posting 42 points and dishing out 14 assists on his way to 77.5 DK points as the Mavericks upset the Clippers to take a 3-2 lead. He also played 43 minutes and attempted a whopping 37 shots. It was the third time in five games Doncic has topped 70 fantasy points. Baring injury or a Clippers blowout, he's basically a lock to be on a winner's lineup while also being quite popular in the captain spot.
SF:
Kawhi Leonard ($11,600) struggled in Wednesday's loss recording a 20/5/5 line and 37.75 DK points in 42 minutes. He only shot 7-for-19 from the field and went 1-for-7 from three-point range. Prior to Game 5, Leonard had recorded 55-plus fantasy points in each of the first four games of the series. I'd expect him to bounce back tonight with the season on the line. If the Clippers win, Leonard's likely to be on the winning lineup.
SG:
Paul George ($10,800) was the best player on the Clippers in Game 5 with a 23/10/6 line over 39 minutes that helped him to 51.5 DK points. I expect him to be slightly less popular than Kawhi and that makes him extra appealing. The Clippers need George's scoring if they're going to avoid elimination tonight and it's safe to assume 40 minutes and 20 shots. He makes for a solid option in the captain spot based solely on the fact he's the cheapest of the three elite players.
Expected Chalk
Boban Marjanovic ($2,400), if he starts
The Mavericks needed to switch things up after getting blown out in Game 4 as they clearly had trouble dealing with the Clippers' smaller lineup. Not many predicted Marjanovic would be the answer. But instead of trying to match size, Rick Carlisle did the opposite when he started Boban and forced the Clippers to use Ivica Zubac off the bench. It's possible Luka Doncic would have made any strategy work with the way he played in Game 5, but Dallas is expected to use the same lineup again tonight. Boban posted 17.25 DK points in 20 minutes and his salary is just way too low for the type of upside in this role. There isn't much for cheap value on the slate and I'd expect that leads to him being chalky in both the flex and captain spots.
Value Picks
Tim Hardaway ($7,600)
Hardaway put up 35.25 fantasy points while playing 45 minutes in Game 5. He would've done better had he not shot just 6-for-19 from the field. The big minutes and shot attempts are encouraging and Hardaway offers more upside than anyone in this range, making him a good option for the captain spot if you want to save salary.
Marcus Morris ($6,600)
Morris scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds Wednesday on his way to 37.25 fantasy points. He played 42 minutes, half of them as the de facto center with the Clippers playing a smaller lineup. I'd expect upwards of 40 again tonight.
Reggie Jackson ($6,200)
Jackson is coming off 29.5 fantasy points across 29 minutes in Game 5. He attempted double-digits three-pointers for the second time in three outings since entering the starting lineup. Jackson has also been consistent by topping 25 DK points in four straight.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,000)
Finney-Smith grabbed five steals on Wednesday and scored 29 fantasy points over 40 minutes. He's also logged 37-plus minutes in each game this series. Even though DFS doesn't have much upside, that type of projected run makes him a viable option on a slate that doesn't have a lot of value.
Nicolas Batum ($5,000)
Batum has scored 23.75 and 28.25 DK points while seeing mid-30 minutes in back-to-back starts as the Clippers have gone to a smaller lineup. Of all the players projected to play 25-plus minutes tonight, Batum is the cheapest. I'd expect him to be popular for that reason and rightfully so.
