This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's eight-game slate presents us with some interesting storylines. Butler's first night in Philly stands out, but there's also the quandary of the Utah Jazz – will their last outing keep DFS players away? We've also got some blowout potential in a few games. Let's get down to business.
First, the Sixers. I faded Butler against the Magic, and his low ownership indicated that many others felt the way I did. I think his Philly debut will go a little bit differently. The home fans want to know what they gave up in exchange for Covington and Saric, and I think they'll get a heavy dose of Butler tonight. What struck me most about his first game with the team is how Ben Simmons' output was compromised. He only saw 31 minutes and put up five shots in that span – the only bright spot here is that his salary is now down to $8,200, making him a bit more palatable. I think Joel Embiid ($10,300) is a solid anchor in this matchup regardless of how Butler fares, but I can't fully endorse a stack with much enthusiasm. I'd especially use caution with J.J. Redick. He posted a full stat line against Orlando, but that kind of output isn't sustainable, and I think his ownership will spike after that performance. This game is not one of the blowouts I mentioned above. Sure, the Jazz only put up 68 points and lost by 50 to Dallas on Wednesday, but this is also the team that put up 125 against the Celtics. You can't give up on Utah that easily. Salaries fell for almost all of Utah's starters, and you can bet I'll find spots for Donovan Mitchell ($7,200) and Rudy Gobert ($7,500) as contrarian picks in my GPP lineups.
The blowout potential lies elsewhere, and its bad luck for us that they also sport the highest O/U lines on the slate. The Pelicans are 10.5-point favorites against the Knicks, and this will be an offensive battle, as neither team has been particularly efficient on the defensive end of the ball. We will likely see a bit more of Wesley Johnson ($3,500) and Ian Clark ($3,200) if things get out of hand, and I still like Julius Randle ($6,700) despite Nikola Mirotic's potential return to action. On the Knicks end, Alonzo Trier ($4,200) has been the guy to see a bump in usage in the assorted Knicks blowouts, and it wouldn't surprise me if Kevin Knox ($4,300) shared the same outcome.
The Bulls will face the Bucks as 14-point underdogs, and this one could get ugly. I like the idea of Ersan Ilyasova ($3,900) coming alive in this game as the Bucks pull away, especially when you consider the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo's usage drops considerably in a blowout (18 minutes against Orlando two weeks ago is a good example). Malcolm Brogdon ($5,000) has also seen a usage bump in this game script. I would be wary of value-hunting on the Bulls' end, but Zach LaVine ($7,800) has played 30 minutes in losing efforts with wide margins and is one safe endorsement I can make for Chicago.
I'll now select three players at each position, accompanied by a small list of players per category. When possible, I will endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each spot.
GUARDS
Victor Oladipo, IND at MIA ($9,300): Oladipo is one of my favorite elite players tonight against a Miami defense that ranks dead last against opposing off-guards. He's posted three straight games with 50 DKFP or more, and he put up 52.8 DKFP against the Heat seven days ago. I don't have any cause to expect a drastically different outcome here. While Miami is healthier overall than they were a week ago, that isn't going to move Oladipo's needle much in either direction.
D'Angelo Russell, BKN at WAS ($6,600): I like a lot of players in this range, but I think they pale in comparison to Russell against the Wizards. His usage has climbed into the 40 percent range with Caris LeVert (foot) out for the foreseeable future. And with that kind of court time, he's a secure lock to exceed value at a super-low price. Then there's the matter of the Wizards – terrible is an appropriate adjective to describe their defense of late. Over the past five games, they've been a little less forgiving with point guards, but that included two games against D.J Augustin. Russell is a far superior adversary.
E'Twaun Moore, NO vs. NY ($5,200): I didn't mention Moore earlier, but he's worth a shot and gives you five-spot eligibility as well. Moore is coming off an impressive 45 DKFP performance against the Timberwolves and while that's not a sustainable number for Moore, he does tend to stick around when a game is well in hand. Moore's output depends on how he's shooting, and he's drilling them in at a rate of 60.3 percent over the past five games.
Additional guards to consider: John Wall, WAS vs. BKN ($9,500), Mike Conley, MEM vs. SAC ($7,000)
FORWARDS
Josh Richardson, MIA at IND ($6,500): We covered most of the top end of the slate at this position earlier, so I'll look for a little more value with these three picks. Despite the potential for a lopsided outcome, Richardson has the most reliable floor for the Heat at present. If he's shooting well, he can jump into the 40 DKFP range with ease. The Pacers lead the league in scoring defense, but they're near the bottom in offensive rebound efficiency. Richardson needs five or six boards to diversify his stat line, and he didn't log that when the two teams met last week. He managed 18 points and six assists in that game, so he can easily meet value here if he can manage to grab a few off the glass.
Andrew Wiggins, MIN vs. POR ($6,100): I'll admit, I could be wrong about Wiggins. In a recent roundtable, I mentioned the addition of Robert Covington and Dario Saric could result in lower production from Wiggins. But at least in the first game, the exact opposite occurred. I think Covington ($5,300) comes in at a great price in this matchup, but it's hard to ignore the 45 DKFP performance Wiggins gave us in this new setup. His switch to the two spot might be what the doctor ordered.
Jaren Jackson, MEM vs. SAC ($5,400): Jackson has quietly become a key component in Memphis' early success, especially on the defensive end. The rookie is regularly logging around 30 minutes per game, and his shot looks more accurate with every outing. He's also hitting the ancillary stats, averaging 2.8 blocks and 1.2 steals over his past five games. He put up 30 DKFP against the Kings in their first meeting, which is precisely what Jackson needs to meet value at this price.
Other forwards to consider: Kawhi Leonard, TOR at BOS ($9,000), Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. TOR ($6,100)
CENTERS
Anthony Davis, NO vs. NY ($11,400): Too obvious? Sure, but there's added motivation to field Davis in this matchup. His minutes seem impervious to the game flow, as the last time he saw less than 30 minutes on the floor was against the Kings on Oct. 19 – and there have been plenty of lopsided contests since that 20-point victory. The days of the Pelicans handling the Brow with kid gloves no longer apply, as they pretty much let him play 35-40 minutes on the regular. They'll always be a rest night or two on back-to-backs, but his presence will be consistent overall – even in a mismatch.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR at MIN ($7,100): I already touted Rudy Gobert in this range, but instead I'll use my tried-and-true equation: Towns vs. _______ = +EV. I give Towns plenty of grief about his defensive ability, but I have to admit he's gotten better. That being said, Nurkic poured in 39 DKFP against the Wolves once already. And despite some worthy defensive additions in Covington and Saric, I predict a similar outcome. Nurkic is averaging 15.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, so I'd expect a double-double bonus.
Derrick Favors, UTA at PHI ($4,500): I'm not bashing the Butler trade, but Philly made some substantial defensive sacrifices in the middle of their lineup. So when I was scanning Utah for GPP value, Favors stood out as a guy who could take advantage of that on Friday. Favors has popped with some great stat lines here and there, but like the rest of the team hasn't been a pillar of consistency. The potential is still there, especially if he can stay away from Embiid and instead make a home at the wing where Philly is softest.
