This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
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TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks: None of the 10 teams in action Thursday have truly intimidating defenses. A few teams are young and likely lottery-bound (Orlando Magic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz); some are missing important pieces due to injuries (Oklahoma City Thunder, Washington Wizards); and others are navigating a major transition in personnel, coaching, or both (Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers). The only two teams not yet mentioned are both better known for their offense than their defense, and one is, in fact, highlighted in the "offenses to use" section below. So, forced to choose a "defense to avoid," I went with the team anchored by a former Defensive Player of the Year.
The 2013-14 Mavericks had a below-average defense in opponent points per game and opponent field goal percentage, but only barely. Their biggest hole was at center, where they rotated between the disappointing Samuel Dalembert, the inconsistent Brandan Wright, and out-of-position power forwards. Enter Tyson Chandler. Chandler alone is not enough to make the Mavericks a defensive powerhouse, but adding Chandler to a well-coached and savvy veteran team should have a big impact. With the Mavericks facing a young Jazz squad, this is a matchup that heavily favors the home team.
Offenses to Use
Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers: The Clippers and the Cleveland Cavaliers are the last two teams to start their 2014-15 campaigns. Not only are the Clippers fully rested and fresh, but they also get to open at home against a severely undermanned Thunder squad that is on the second night of a back-to-back set. The Thunder's injury woes go much deeper than Kevin Durant's (foot) well-publicized injury. For the second night in a row, they will be without Reggie Jackson (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (back), and additional lesser-known players are out (Mitch McGary, Anthony Morrow, Grant Jerrett). The Clippers, on the other hand, are healthy, and that continuity should help them start this season on a strong foot.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Cleveland Cavaliers, LA Clippers
Second game of a back-to-back: Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC (at LAC) PG, ($9,900): Everything that was true about Westbrook on Wednesday remains true Thursday. On Wednesday, he cost $500 dollars more and went off for 56.25 fantasy points, more than justifying his cap hit. The Thunder are severely undermanned, still without Kevin Durant and Reggie Jackson, among others, and it is up to Westbrook to carry the load. Thursday's game also comes with an added psychological significance for the notoriously emotional player. He's facing off against Chris Paul, the unofficial holder of the "League's Best Point Guard" title. Westbrook is the kind of player that wants to prove to the world that the honor ought to be his.
Devin Harris, DAL (vs UTA) PG, ($4,600); and Jameer Nelson, DAL (vs UTA) PG, ($4,600): In Tuesday's opener, all 96 available guard minutes were split between Harris, Nelson, and Monta Ellis. Though Nelson started, he logged only a single minute more than Harris, 30 to 29, and it was Harris who had the better night statistically. It won't always be Harris on top, and both veterans are capable scorers, passers, and threats from long-range in coach Rick Carlisle's well-spaced offense. Expect the minutes distribution to remain unchanged against an inexperienced Jazz squad. At this cheap cost, roughly 30 minutes is ample time for either guard to produce enough to merit a spot on your roster.
Other suggestions: Elfrid Payton, ORL (vs WAS), PG, ($4,900)
Shooting Guard
Gordon Hayward, UTA (at DAL), SG, ($7,300): The Mavericks' defensive improvement, mentioned above, is focused on the interior. Hayward produced 30 fantasy points Wednesday despite shooting only 3-of-11 for just eight points. His hustle on both ends of the floor enables him to pile up rebounds, assists, and steals. Most nights, the career 44-percent shooter should come a lot closer to last season's average of 16.2 points per game.
Other suggestions: Jamal Crawford, LAC (vs OKC), SG, ($5,500); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET (at MIN), SG, ($3,600)
Small Forward
Josh Smith, DET (at MIN), SF, ($7,500): Simply put, who else is going to score for the Pistons on Thursday? Greg Monroe, their third-leading scorer from the last season, behind only Smith and Brandon Jennings, is finishing his two-game suspension Thursday. True, Jennings can score in bunches, but he can also disappear at times, as he did Wednesday against the Nuggets. Though Smith has received plenty of unfavorable publicity over the years due to oversized contracts and a tendency toward selfish play, those critiques sidestep the issues of Smith's many abilities as a player. Not only is he a capable scorer, but Smith is a strong rebounder and shot-blocker, and he can add steals and three-pointers to his stat sheet. While this Pistons-Timberwolves matchup is far from a battle between contending heavyweights, lower performing teams can often combine to create some favorable fantasy production.
Other suggestions: Chandler Parsons, DAL (vs UTA), SF, ($6,700); Tobias Harris, ORL (vs WAS), SF, ($5,800)
Power Forward
Thaddeus Young, MIN (vs DET), PF, ($6,700): Young was the unquestioned leader of the new-look Timberwolves on Wednesday, finishing with 26 points, four rebounds, four assists, and 41.5 fantasy points in 34 minutes. That was against the Grizzlies' tough defensive frontcourt of Zach Randolph and former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. On the one hand, the Pistons' Josh Smith and Andre Drummond are more athletic than the Grizzlies, which will help them keep better pace with the rangy Young, but neither are on Gasol's level overall. Furthermore, the Pistons are running a brand new system under new coach Stan Van Gundy, and it usually takes weeks or longer before a new NBA defense runs smoothly. Young has a good chance to reproduce, if not improve upon, Wednesday's impressive performance.
Other suggestions: Serge Ibaka, OKC (at LAC), PF, ($7,700)
Center
Nikola Vucevic, ORL (vs WAS), C, ($8,000): Thursday looks like a tough night at center. Few, if any, of the seemingly reliable producers also sport an appealing cost. While $8,000 is more than I'd prefer to spend on Vucevic, the cost is not unreasonable. "Vooch" is a fairly consistent producer, rarely falling short of either 15 points or double-digit rebounds (and even more rare is missing both on the same night). The Wizards' Marcin Gortat is a worthy adversary for the Magic's big man but not someone who should make you fear inserting Vucevic into your lineup.
Other suggestions: Steven Adams, OKC (at LAC), C, ($3,500)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Raymond Felton (suspension)
Jodie Meeks (back)
Greg Monroe (suspension)
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring)
Kevin Durant (foot)
Reggie Jackson (ankle)
Grant Jerrett (ankle)
Jeremy Lamb (back)
Mitch McGary (foot)
Anthony Morrow (knee)
Channing Frye (knee)
Victor Oladipo (face)
Bradley Beal (wrist)
Martell Webster (back)
Jose Calderon (calf) will be out 2-3 weeks.
Game-Time Decision
Cartier Martin (foot) missed Wednesday's game but is considered day-to-day.
Kevin Martin (ankle) missed Wednesday's game but is considered day-to-day.
Kendrick Perkins (quadriceps) played in Wednesday's game, but is still listed as a game-time decision.
Glen Davis (groin) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game.
Ronny Turiaf (hip) is a game-time decision and missed Wednesday's game.
Pablo Prigoni (back) played in Wednesday's game, but is still listed as a game-time decision.
Kyle O'Quinn (ankle) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game.
Paul Pierce (knee) is expected to play in Thursday's game.
Glen Rice (ankle) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game. He did not play Wednesday, but it was unclear whether or not that was because of his injury.
