This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Last week, I looked back at my bold AL predictions from late January. There were some good ones, some bad ones, and some flat out terrible ones. This week, we shall see if I fared any better with my senior circuit bold predictions.
My NL predictions in 2016 were horrendous so I am hoping I did better this year as I have purposely avoided reading my predictions the past few months.
Arizona – Taijuan Walker wins 12 games with an ERA at or below 3.50: This is a strong start out of the gate as Walker had a 3.49 ERA on the season – his best full season ERA of his career. Unfortunately, he only managed nine wins for a playoff team out of 28 starts (stupid NL rules). The ERA improvement came mainly from a normalization of his home run rate as his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate and the bump in walks can somewhat be attributed to the way NL pitchers work around guys to get to pitchers.
Walker did not improve anything from a skills level as metrics such as his overall contact rate and first pitch strike rates were right in line with his career rates and even his swinging strike rate declined from previous years. He has not been able to work deep into too many games which is going to limit his potential to get wins, as was the case this year. We now know he had trouble keeping the
Last week, I looked back at my bold AL predictions from late January. There were some good ones, some bad ones, and some flat out terrible ones. This week, we shall see if I fared any better with my senior circuit bold predictions.
My NL predictions in 2016 were horrendous so I am hoping I did better this year as I have purposely avoided reading my predictions the past few months.
Arizona – Taijuan Walker wins 12 games with an ERA at or below 3.50: This is a strong start out of the gate as Walker had a 3.49 ERA on the season – his best full season ERA of his career. Unfortunately, he only managed nine wins for a playoff team out of 28 starts (stupid NL rules). The ERA improvement came mainly from a normalization of his home run rate as his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate and the bump in walks can somewhat be attributed to the way NL pitchers work around guys to get to pitchers.
Walker did not improve anything from a skills level as metrics such as his overall contact rate and first pitch strike rates were right in line with his career rates and even his swinging strike rate declined from previous years. He has not been able to work deep into too many games which is going to limit his potential to get wins, as was the case this year. We now know he had trouble keeping the ball in the yard in a pitcher's park but did a good job of doing that in 2017 in a hitter's park. Go figure.
Atlanta – Jim Johnson saves 30-plus games: This ended up being a 2016-ish prediction. Johnson was rather terrible as his walk rate spiked, his home run rate tripled, and his ERA went from 3.06 in 2016 to 5.56 in 2017. His season looked nearly as bad as the 2014 season that came on the heels of back to back 50-save seasons and this one likely ends his time as a full-time closer.
Johnson went through the first two months of the season with 5 wins, 17 saves, a 3.63 ERA, a 2.35 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP. From that point on, he won just one more game, saved five more, and had a 8.59 ERA (7.16 FIP) with a 2.14 WHIP. His velocity gradually disappeared as the season went on and that is not good for a guy that already pitches on the fringes of the zone.
Chicago – Carl Edwards Jr. leads the team in saves: Nope. Wade Davis held up health wise and saved 32 games with nearly a career-high strikeout rate. Edwards finished the season with 32 fewer saves than Davis but did strike out 94 in 66.1 innings and picked up five wins. Even if Davis would have been hurt, Edwards still struggles with walks as 2017 was his second consecutive season with a double-digit walk rate as he now owns a 13 percent walk rate for his career.
Cincinnati – Brandon Finnegan leads Reds starters in wins, strikeouts, and ERA: That is really tough to do when you only make four starts before tearing the labrum in your non-throwing shoulder.
Colorado – Tyler Anderson wins 10-plus games with a 3.50 ERA and 140 strikeouts: Yea, none of these happened and he made just 15 starts on the season. He was sent down n in late June and didn't come back until rosters expanded in September. This was still an unproven Colorado pitcher that most of us where running from anyhow who was ultimately hurt by a 1.7 HR/9 rate as he stopped generating the groundballs he had as a rookie in 2016.
Los Angeles – Logan Forsythe out-earns every Dodger hitter in 2017: This is tough to do when you miss a chunk of time with a variety of injuries. Forsythe was able to get on base at a .351 clip, but nothing else went right for him as he looked a lot like the guy who struggled through his first year with Tampa Bay rather than the guy who excelled for that same club in 2015 and 2016.
Miami – Brad Ziegler leads the club in saves: This did not happen because the Marlins stayed in "contention" longer than expected so ownership waited until the final moments to sell off Ramos. Ziegler did save 10 games on the season, but they were ugly as he missed few bats and was rather easy to hit. Check out his strikeout rate the past few seasons: 15, 19, 14, 20 and 12 percent. Can he be the 2018 version of Brandon Kintzler?
Milwaukee – Josh Hader finishes as the No 2 SP on the staff: Hader was awesome on the staff in the role he filled. The problem here is that he pitched in relief for all 35 games and ended up being a shutdown reliever down the stretch as Milwaukee tried to fight their way into the playoffs. Now that he is in this role, he may have a tough time getting out of it. He's blocked by Corey Knebel, so his fantasy future is rather limited by the stuff is definitely there.
New York – Wilmer Flores hits 25 homers: He fell seven short, but he also had only 362 plate appearances and his season finally ended with a broken nose. His skills remained relatively unchanged but 2017 was also the fourth consecutive season that he has improved his slugging percentage. .378, .408, .469, .488. Do we see a .500+ season in 2018 for the 26 year old? He did slug .500 after Memorial Day and hit 15 of his 18 homers over the summer before the broken nose ended his season.
Philadelphia: Clay Buchholz gets back to 12 wins, a sub 3.50 ERA, and 130 strikeouts: Not even close. Cletus left in his second start of the season and never threw another pitch.
Pittsburgh – Ivan Nova finishes in the Top 8 for NL Cy Young Votes: Did I say top 8? I meant top 80, and even then I'm not certain he would qualify. Nova pitched wonderfully down the stretch in 2016 for Pittsburgh but fell back into old habits in 2016 in giving up 1.4 homers per nine innings. He did win 11 games, but they came at the cost of a 4.14 ERA.
San Diego – Manny Margot steals at least 20 bases and scores at least 80 runs: Margot ended the season with 17 steals and 53 runs scored as the Padres were even worse than expected. Margot reached base at a .313 clip which hampered his ability to steal bases but the 53 runs was alarming given he hit first or second most of the season. I'm buying again in 2018 now that he has a full season under his belt and could get that 20/80 prediction done.
San Francisco – Matt Moore wins at least 15 games with an ERA at or below 3.50 and a WHIP at or below 1.25: The operative word here is bold and although I do not partake, it could be argued I was baked when I made this bold prediction. Moore looked at all the gains he made down the stretch in 2016 and threw them away losing 15 games with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. It is crazy to think that the guy who wowed us in the 2011 post-season is now going to have his contract bought out and is hoping to land another starting gig in 2018.
St. Louis - The Gyerk Store is boarded up: In a year where many players set career high homer totals, Jedd Gyorko was a year too early. He followed up his surprise 2016 season of 30 homers with 20 in 2017 in nearly the same amount of playing time. All was not lost as he did his a career-high .272, but the homer drop was the prediction here and it came true as he settled back down to career levels.
Washington – Adam Eaton scores 110+ runs and steals 25+ bases: It is amazing the Nationals advanced to the NLDS and still ran way with their division given they lost their spark plug a month into the season due to torn knee ligaments. Eaton was triple-slashing .297/.393/.462 out of the gate and had already scored 24 runs in 23 games until the fateful injury on April 28th along with three steals. He may lose a step when he is finally back in 2018, but the dude knows how to get on base and will still be a run-scoring machine in that lineup as long as it remains together.
