Mound Musings: The 'Kids on Parade' Watch List For 2018

This is probably the column I look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. Not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit to identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues. If a young pitcher is going to turn into the next Clayton Kershaw, value dictates you want him on your roster before your league opponents realize he's a star on the rise.

The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors before they have had time to tip off that high upside in the minors. Colleges are doing a better job of preparing these youngsters – many believe the better programs are equivalent to Low-A, or perhaps even High-A ball – and teams are desperate to find pitchers capable of helping today. The result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders. It's not easy. I'll remind you that the pitchers below are primarily guys who likely will arrive (if they haven't already) in the next year or two,at the most. Let's get started …

Put These Guys At The Top Of Your Watch List:

• Shohei Otani (JPN) – He's not your typical kid on his way to the major leagues, but if you haven't pitched in MLB and you have enough talent to draw the attention of every front office executive from several thousand miles away, you get to lead the parade. There's no guarantee the star of Japan's Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters will be posted this year, but it sounds like a very real possibility. Now for a new twist on the fantasy impact of Otani – he may pitch and hit regularly. He hasn't pitched much this season due to a laundry list of nagging injuries, mostly lower body, but he has been extremely productive as their designated hitter. I really believe the team with which he signs will want to see his 102 mph fastball and other quality offerings on the mound. In 2016, at age 21, he was 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and 174 strikeouts in 140 innings. He may also seek a team that will let him hit, too, but wherever he lands, and no matter how much it plays havoc with your league's stat categories, you want him on your roster.

• Alex Reyes (STL) – Reyes was steadily climbing on the Parade for a couple of years, and then showed his stuff in St. Louis late in 2016. He came with plenty of well-deserved fanfare and he didn't disappoint, but then he blew out his elbow, and missed the whole season this year. In 2016, he appeared in 12 games (five starts) and he struck out 52 in 46 innings while averaging just under 97 mph with his fastball. He'll likely still have that big arm, and he's expected to be ready for spring training next year, however, be warned, some patience may still be required on your part. Command wasn't his top attribute before the Tommy John surgery, and that is normally the last thing to come back during the rehab process. I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend some time with Triple-A Memphis to work on getting everything back in synch, and the Cardinals are unlikely to push him too hard once he does return. Still, he'll be worth the wait.

• MacKenzie Gore (SD) – I rarely place a first year pro on this list, and it's even more unusual for me to include a draft choice from the current year who is just out of high school. That's how much I like Gore. In a draft where two players were strongly being considered top choices as hitters and pitchers, the southpaw Gore stood out to me. Don't get me wrong, I love Hunter Greene (CIN), and his 102 mph fastball, but I really think he's going to end up an infielder. There isn't any question about Gore, he's going to be working on the mound, and I believe he is advanced enough to be doing it in Petco Park sooner than you might expect. I like his motion, with that big leg kick. He repeats the delivery with four quality pitches that includes a fastball that already touches 96 mph. He's athletic and finishes each pitch. His senior year in high school? I know that doesn't always tell you a lot, but 11-0, with a 0.19 ERA, and 158 strikeouts in 74 innings? Lefties usually take longer to develop but he might be the exception.

• Walker Buehler (LAD) – Buehler … Buehler. He's present in Los Angeles, and he has definitely caught my attention. He missed almost all of 2016 following Tommy John surgery, so his evaluation was on hold for a bit. He went from High-A to the Dodgers this year, and in his appearances with the big club, he has made it clear he's back. He has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in the minors while pitching exclusively in relief since joining the Dodgers earlier in September. I really think his future is near the top of the rotation – he's got a zippy fastball, a really nice curve, a cutter and a decent change that is improving – but they wanted to monitor his innings this season. Don't let his ugly ERA fool you, most of that came in one poor outing, but he's one to grab if he's available. My guess is he will return to Oklahoma City next spring to continue his development, but he'll be back, perhaps later in the year, if an opportunity arises.

• Michael Kopech (CWS) – Kopech has always had a huge arm (triple digits come very easily), but his progress this season has made more than a few analysts mention him as possibly the best pitching prospect in the game. Based on arm alone, he deserves that consideration, and while he is gradually winning me over too, I'm still not quite ready to write him in at the top of my list. He came over to the White Sox as part – a very big part – of the deal that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Since joining baseball's deepest minor-league system, his command has improved considerably, and maybe more importantly, his mound demeanor has also taken a couple of steps forward. Basically, Kopech is learning to pitch. Before turning pro, and in the low minors, he could generally just reach back and blow hitters away. At the more challenging Double-A level he had to refine his command and develop more savvy. He pretty much accomplished that. He still needs more consistent command, but if/when that comes, he's got the stuff to shine.

• Tyler Glasnow (PIT) – It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. And, Glasnow is living his own version of A Tale of Two Cities. In Indianapolis, he has been every bit the top blue-chip prospect (9-2, 0.96 WHIP, 1.93 ERA, and 140 strikeouts in 93 innings), while displaying none of that in Pittsburgh (2.02 WHIP, 8.02 ERA). It was much the same in 2016. Remember, a couple of years ago, he was consistently discussed with a couple of Pirates' kids named Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. They have both graduated, and I'm confident Glasnow will join them in the fairly near future. He has all the tools, he just needs to realize that. He's a big kid (6'8") and doesn't always command his spicy repertoire. He can get away with that at Triple-A, but hitters at the top level will lay off those pitches out of the zone. When that has happened, he often tosses "get me over" fastballs and they end up over the wall. He'll learn, and he benefits from being in an organization that excels in developing quality starting pitchers.

• Mike Soroka (ATL) – It's not easy to make this list as more of a finesse pitcher for two reasons. First, the more obvious candidates often have powerful arms, and secondly, it's fairly unusual for a young kid to have the mound presence and the command to be considered a top-shelf finesse pitcher. Enter Soroka. His fastball is low 90s with a lot of sink, but he complements it with a nice breaking ball and an exceptional changeup. The Braves are still looking for a level to challenge Soroka's extremely focused approach on the mound, but they haven't found it yet. He dominated Low-A in 2016, so they skipped him up to Double-A Mississippi this season despite him being just 19 years of age. He wasn't out of place at all despite being the youngest pitcher in the league. The thing is, he's still filling out and may get even better. He's not likely to be a big strikeout guy, but I expect a low WHIP, low ERA, groundball machine. I just love young arms with his composure, and they tend to be rare.

• Triston McKenzie (CLE) – At age 20, McKenzie spent 2017 at High-A Lynchburg and never missed a beat. He logged eight or more strikeouts in half of his 25 starts, on his way to 186 punchouts on the year. Perhaps more importantly, he managed 143 innings over those 25 starts. At 6'5" and only 165 pounds, the knock on him has always been concerns about whether he would have the stamina and strength to work deep into games over a long season. I think those fears are gradually evaporating. Another exceptionally smart pitcher (I do love those guys), he uses everything he has to his advantage. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can sneak up to about 94 mph, and he has a swing-and-miss curve to go with a rapidly developing changeup. I think what I like best in him is his ability to set up hitters and then finish them off. Everything is on a tight downward plane, and there is plenty of depth on his off speed stuff. I'm sure he's a couple of seasons away from Cleveland, and maybe he can add a little bulk along the way, but he is top shelf and a big year in 2018 will move him up again on my list.

• Michel Baez (SD) – Baez may not be as familiar to you as others on this list, but I think he's worth a look and should be monitored to see how he develops. He was signed out of Cuba with only modest fanfare, but he opened some eyes at Low-A Fort Wayne where he made 10 starts, covering 59 innings, with an attention-getting 82:8 K:BB. He's another big guy at 6'8" and he works off of a mid-90s fastball that touches 98 mph at times with good movement. He still needs more consistency with his secondary stuff, but I saw enough potential to say I think those will come. Next season, probably at High-A and maybe some time at Double-A, should tell a lot. I'm reasonably certain the Padres will invest the time in him to see how he develops as a starter, but he profiles as a potentially dominating late inning reliever if they decide that is his best path. If that should happen for some reason, his timeline to San Diego would accelerate.

• Brent Honeywell (TB) – Honeywell was one of the top strikeout pitchers in the minor leagues this season (172 in 137 innings), and he piled up some pretty decent numbers over the year at Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham. That said, the Rays opted not to promote him to the big club in September, and Honeywell was reportedly disgruntled with that decision. I'm going to go with the club on this one. Tampa Bay has a well-earned reputation for successfully making the most of their young pitchers, and he did allow more hits than innings at Durham and posted a pedestrian 1.31 WHIP. There's no question Honeywell has the skills to be a solid starting pitcher, but he still has some work to do, and hopefully he'll get and stay focused heading into a critical 2018 season. If that happens, and he makes the hoped-for progress, I think there's a good chance he could be up and contributing at the MLB level by mid-season.

• Franklin Perez (DET) – This is a bit of a wildcard. Perez makes the Parade after changing organizations at this year's trading deadline. He was a key component in the deal that sent Justin Verlander to Houston. That wouldn't necessarily change my outlook so much – I have always liked just about everything I have seen from him – but it might move his arrival date to the big leagues. He's the whole package. Perez is built to be a workhorse, and he already has a special arsenal that includes a changeup that is well beyond his age (19) and experience level. I really hope the Tigers allow him to learn and mature before throwing him to the wolves, but they do have a habit of rushing kid pitchers to Detroit. He's got a nice, easy motion, and I think he'll become even more of a strikeout pitcher as he refines his approach. He needs another year, preferably two, of seasoning to maximize his impact in fantasy circles, but keep an eye on him.
  

It's not easy to make this list, and it can be very hard to maintain a spot, but the list is never static. Tomorrow, the list could, and probably will, change.