Collette Calls: NL Bold Predictions

This is the third annual installment of my NL Bold Predictions post. I did very well in 2015, correctly picking Jason Grilli as the saves leader, Max Scherzer to increase his strikeout rate for a fourth consecutive season, Dexter Fowler to set a career high in runs, Jimmy Nelson to lead his team in strikeouts and Jason Hammel to get back into his good 2014 form.

Last year, I flat out sucked. I came within two homers of correctly predicting Brandon Moss would lead the Cardinals in home runs and a final late blowout made my prediction of Jake Arrieta's ERA rising over 3.00 to come true. I also hinted at what Keon Broxton could do saying he would lead Milwaukee in steals not knowing Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez would blow up as well. Every other prediction I made was not even close.  

The process of doing these predictions began years ago in a thread where I said (then) B.J. Upton would go 20/50 and score 100 runs, Joel Peralta would save 20 games and Edwin Encarnacion would lead the Jays with 34 home runs. That thread was designed as a BOLD predictions thread where you had to put something down the player had never done before. Encarnacion hit 34 homers … divided by two, Peralta saved 14 fewer games than 20, but Upton gave it a fighting chance hitting 23 homers, stealing 36 bases and scoring 82 runs. 

I typically wait until after the Tout Wars draft to announce these picks, but given my finish the last two seasons, that strategy clearly is not helping me. Therefore, I will be calling some shots very early out of the gate this year and letting people know where I stand even before RotoWire colleague Paul Sporer and I participate in the Mixed LABR draft Feb. 13.

While there is safety in making mainstream predictions, these will be more along the bold types. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Taijuan Walker wins 12 games with an ERA <= 3.50. Why does it feel like Walker is 27 when he does not even turn 25 until mid-August? I've long called him Edwin Jackson 2.0 and I really should get off this bandwagon, but I just can't quit him. He has had a better than league-average strikeout rate each of his two full seasons in the majors and is stingy with the walks. The issue for him always comes back to command because he tends to miss up with his fastball and batters don't miss it when he does so. Last year, he gave up a stunning 27 homers in 134.1 innings (1.8 HR/9) as 18 percent of his flyballs permitted found a seat in the stands. The Diamondbacks bought low on Jackson, err, Walker and are looking for him to breakout in his third full season in the bigs. It wasn't that long ago where he looked terrific in the second half of the 2015 season. 2016 was problematic because a foot problem affective his delivery so he could not drive off the mound. He moves to a tougher park, but his value is near rock bottom, which presents a profit opportunity.

Atlanta Braves

Jim Johnson saves 30-plus games. Last year, I was pessimistic about Johnson's ability to hold the closer role because I thought Atlanta's primary purpose for Johnson was to drive up his value and flip him at the deadline for a longer term value. Instead, they not only kept him but signed him to a two-year extension this past October. Johnson surprised many but surging his strikeout rate last season from the mid-teens to the mid 20s while retaining the high groundball rate.

That seems improbable for a guy who was 0-4 with a 7.90 ERA before hitting the disabled list in early May with a groin strain. He had permitted 20 baserunners in 13.2 innings as well as 12 earned runs, but when he returned from the disabled list, something was different. That something was more velocity:

Johnson saved 20 of 22 games with a 1.76 ERA and a 26 percent strikeout rate once he returned from the disabled list. Do not waste your time speculating on Mauricio Cabrera's 102 mph heat as a fastball because he lacks the command of it and the secondary stuff to close. This job is Johnson's as he has earned it and the Braves are going to be in a lot of close games one way or the other.

Chicago Cubs

Carl Edwards Jr. leads the team in saves. I love Wade Davis the reliever and wish he would have been more welcoming to that role while with Tampa Bay (always wanted to be a starter). Now, he is reunited with the coach that pushed him to the pen. That said, I can't fully invest in Davis's skills for 2017 because he went on the disabled list twice in 2016 with a forearm strain. The velo dipped a bit in the second half around the injuries Those types of issues do not always go away and tend to be precursors to future issues. Edwards has all of the skillsets you want in a closer: high strikeout rate, high movement on pitches, high groundball rate and wipes out lefties and righties. Many are spending high picks on guys such as Andrew Miller (104) and Dellin Betances (162) in NFBC while Edwards is there for free at 500. I'll take that gamble all day long.

Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Finnegan leads Reds starters in wins, strikeouts and ERA. I am a sucker for a great changeup, and Finnegan has one of the best ones in the league. The problem last year was that he threw his fastball too much and it got bombed as 22 of his 29 homers came off his fastball. Perhaps he took a lesson from Matt Shoemaker and realized his fastball is a secondary pitch and he began to pitch a bit backward to mess with hitters and get ahead in the count in the second half of 2016:

Coincidentally, Finnegan had a 2.93 second-half ERA, holding batters to a .229/.311/.410 slash line and struck out 25 percent of the batters he faced. If he can stick with that plan, he should be able to put a nice dent in that ERA that was inflated by a lot of the early home runs off the four-seamer.

Colorado Rockies

Tyler Anderson wins 10-plus games with a 3.50 ERA and 140 strikeouts. I don't care if he pitches in Colorado; dude knows how to pitch. You can bench him on the road if you wish, but his triple-slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) at home was nearly identical to what it was on the road. Sure, the ERA was nearly 1.75 runs higher, but better fortune could swing that. He can pitch there because he's all fastball, cutter, and changeup and does not let the laws of physics defeat a curveball. He gets enough swings and misses despite the lack of a good changeup or a breaking ball because he locates well and gets movement on his two-seamer. Oh yeah, he also has a 51 percent groundball rate in Coors, which helps a lot too.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Forsythe out-earns every other Dodger hitter in 2017. Forsythe is so underrated as a hitter it is criminal. He lost time last year when Felix Hernandez drilled him in the shouderblade and fractured that bone, but has otherwise spent most of the last two years raking. He was once known as a lefty masher, but has now become a guy who hits to all fields and does so with authority. He hit 20 homers in a shortened season last year and should be the leadoff hitter for the Dodgers with more talent behind him than he is accustomed to. He was a $20 player in AL leagues in 2015 and a $14 guy last season; he'll earn at least $25 this year with a career-high batting average, 100-plus runs and repeating 20 homers.

Miami Marlins

Brad Ziegler leads the club in saves. If we look at this bullpen from a pure stuff perspective, then this prediction looks ridiculous. After all, this is a pen that featured two relievers in Kyle Barraclough and David Phelps, that each struck out more than 100 guys in under 75 and 90 innings respectively. Not to mention, the incumbent, A.J. Ramos, continues to pile up saves. That is why I feel none of them are the best guy for saves. Ramos is already making $6.6M as he is in the second year of arbitration and that figure is going to reach double-digits next year as he continues to pile up saves, which makes him a prime trade candidate for Miami at the deadline if they are not contending (they won't). Their rotation is not very good, so Phelps and Barraclough will likely need to work multiple frames once again to get the ball to the back end of the pen where a cost-controlled Brad Ziegler could do what he did last year for Arizona before he was dealt.

Milwaukee Brewers

Josh Hader finishes as the No. 2 SP on the staff. Junior Guerra was fun last year, but that is going to be tough to repeat. Matt Garza is just awful these days while Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta are replacable skillsets on a club. Zach Davies is the real ace of this club but everything else is up in the air. Enter the flowing locks of Josh Hader. He posted high strikeout rates throughout the minor leagues and while the walk rate was high in Triple-A last year, understand he was pitching in Colorado Springs which is simply unfair for anyone to pitch in. He only worked 126 innings last year so the 23-year old may be under some kind of cap this season, but I think he comes up before Memorial Day and sticks in the rotation.

New York Mets

Wilmer Flores hits 25 homers. Flores qualifies at both first and third this season, and even second base if you use 15 games as your qualifying measure as the expert leagues now do. The Mets have health issues with their starters at all three positions so while Flores does not yet have a position, it is not tough to imagine a scenario where he gets one of those spots. He hit 16 homers in part time play last season and his indicators show him lofting the ball more these days. Issues against righties limit his overall upside in terms of average, but I'm sensing a third full season breakout there for him powerwise.

Philadelphia Phillies

Clay Buchholz gets back to 12 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA and 130 strikeouts. This, after going 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA last year. If we bust his season up, Cletus the Slack-jawed Pitcher was 2-5 with a 6.35 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 15 percent strikeout rate through his first ten starts. After that: 6-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 17 percent strikeout rate. Now, he gets out of the AL East and it's lineups and smallparks and comes to the easier of the Eastern divisions. Jeremy Hellickson came to Philly last year with low expectations and found some success. Buchholz has had recent success and this change of scenery will do him well.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Ivan Nova finishes in the top 8 for NL Cy Young Votes. Nova was 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA with the Yankees and 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA for the Pirates last year. Leaving Yankee Stadium was a godsend for him and getting matched up with Ray Searge and the Pirates front office another. The defensive improvements on the infield and now in the outfield with Andrew McCutchen moving to right field should really help Nova continue to flourish in Pittsburgh. His strikeout rate bumped up coming over to the NL, he got even stingier with walks and he continues to generate groundballs by the bunches. The pieces have all been here before, but pitching in Yankee Stadium has done him no favors.

San Diego Padres

Manny Margot steals at least 20 bases and scores at least 80 runs. He is going to be playing as a full-time major leaguer at the age of 22, but he has earned it. He has hit for strong averages in the minors and has done so making a lot of contact while being several years younger than most of his competition. He swiped 39 bags in 2015 and 30 last year. I think he ultimately becomes the leadoff guy for the Padres this season and uses his abilities to reach base frequently and run at will, allowing him to steal 20-plus bases.

San Francisco Giants

Matt Moore wins at least 15 games with a ERA <= 3.50, and a WHIP <=1.25. Moore has only topped 15 wins once, has not had a sub 3.50 ERA since 2013, and has never had a WHIP below 1.29. He changed things up when he joined the Giants by adding a cutter to his bag of tricks and it made a big difference for him giving him three pitches against lefties so they could no longer sit on his fastball when he fell behind in the count. He has a nice park to pitch in now with good pen support and earned the decision in 11 of his 12 outings with the Giants last year compared to just 14 of the 21 in Tampa Bay. I'm envisioning something like 2013 with fewer walks.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Gyerk Store is boarded up. Unless your name is Nando DiFino, it is unlikely you targeted Jedd Gyorko is drafts last year. The power potential was negated by a poor average each of his three seasons in San Diego, so his value was low heading into auctions. Those who ended up with him (he fell to me in my NL Keeper league) ended up with a guy who led the Cardinals in home runs while still hitting below leage average in terms of batting average. This year, he won't hit as many as 20 homers. Last year, he had 40 extra base hits and 30 were home runs. That improbable effort required one of every four of his flyballs to leave the yard, which bested his previous best of 16 percent in his rookie season. Yes, he started to pull the ball more last year but that's still a very high rate to maintain year over year and he was at 29 percent in the second half when he hit 23 of his 30 homers.

Washington Nationals

Adam Eaton scores 110-plus runs and steals 25-plus bases. Believe it or not, he has yet to do either in his major league career. That should be surprising given that his on base percentage the past three seasons has been either .361 or .362 as he has hit high in the lineup for most of that. Now, he comes to a loaded Nationals lineup and will be playing for a skipper who has a lead foot and loves to run. I think Eaton flourishes under Dusty Baker and still hits these totals even if he and the demi-god Trea Turner flop spots in the lineup. It is yet another reason to love Bryce Harper hitting behind those two.