Collette Calls: Late-Round Bargains

Last month, the writers who do not spend half of their week in a plane or a rental car released the site's composite Top 350 Rankings for 2017. I do not participate in this exercise because my work week does not permit enough free time to properly contribute, but I can chip in other ways. I would like to look at the perceived bargains in the rankings by putting together a starting lineup using players ranked below 150. This would mean players who would be taken after the 10th round in a 15-team mixed league draft.

CATCHER

Tom Murphy – Median Rank: 301

Murphy still has to actually win the job from Tony Wolters in camp, but if he does, 20 homers is possible. Murphy has hit for power throughout his minor league career and feasted in the PCL in Albuquerque, putting up a .320 isolated power average in 80 games. The issue is the contact, or lack thereof. Murphy has struck out 33 percent of the time in his major league career, and while that has come in fewer than 100 plate appearances, remember the stabilization rate for strikeout rate is only 60 plate appearances. The 26 percent strikeout rate in the minors was not much better and it was actually worse against lefties. Cameron Rupp may be a safer play two rounds earlier, but early drafters could profit nicely from the job battle in camp.

FIRST BASE

Greg Bird – Median Rank: 296

First base had quite a bit of depth this season, but it still feels weird to see Bird as the 24th overall first baseman at the position given his power upside. It would be impossible for him to continue to hit homers at the rate he did when he did his Kevin Maas impression in 2015. However, with that short porch in right, he could get into 20 homers as Brian McCann did in his years with the Yankees. Like McCann, he has his issues against lefties (.879 OPS vs. RHP vs. .733 vs. LHP in 2015), but there is still a bit of power there for a late grab at the corner position. The RBI chances should be good as well as he is slated to hit fifth in the lineup.

SECOND BASE

Devon Travis – Median Rank: 230

Not gonna lie – I love this guy. If you watched him later in the season and in the postseason, you could not help but be impressed with his at-bats and the type of contact he made with the ball. He is nearly 700 plate appearances into his major league career, and owns a .301 career batting average and a .342 on-base percentage and hit .321/.348/.462 in the second half. He is also going to leadoff in front of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, et. al, so runs should be there aplenty. If he could draw a few more walks to help get on base at that 40 percent second half hit rate regresses, even better. The stolen base is not a part of his game, and has been mostly MIA for many Toronto players in recent seasons, but this could be a big season as Travis could double his runs scored from last year and push 20 homers.

SHORTSTOP

Asdrubal Cabrera – Median Rank: 231

Cabrera has been a mostly consistent player in recent seasons. When he varies, it is in a good way as it was in 2011 when he had his best overall season or just last year when he went on a second-half power binge and nearly matched his career high in home runs. He is a career .269 hitter you can pencil in for 15 homers and hope for a repeat of 20. He has an incredibly high floor and a low ceiling, but boring is safe. Others may chase the upside of a Tim Anderson (who I like a lot), but the level of variance is so much safer with the veteran Cabrera.

THIRD BASE

Yulieski Gurriel – Median Rank: 271

Outside the top 150, there is a dropoff. Ryon Healy is appealing, but the Oakland roster is getting a bit loaded and playing time is a little unclear. Matt Duffy is a bit appealing because he also qualifies at shortstop, but the wild card of Gurriel is the most attractive to me down here. He had 137 plate appearances last year and showed the ability to make a lot of contact in a race to get done with the at-bat as quickly as possible. 2016 was such a blur as he went from being out of the country through FIVE levels of baseball in a matter of five months. The Crawford Boxes will be calling, and the Astros have retooled that debacle in center field so flyballs that way have a chance of leaving the yard. He is projected to hit second cleanup for the Astros but could move up as high as sixth while swapping places with Alex Bregman.

OUTFIELD

Ender Inciarte – Median Rank: 198

After a very slow start, Inciarte hit .291 with a .351 OBP, 16 steals and 85 runs in 131 games, and a lot of that was backloaded as he hit .341/.396/.440 in the second half with 59 runs scored. He has the high-contact abilities and the ability to accept his walks to help set the table for the bigger bats in the offense. He is a safer version of Jacoby Ellsbury and a Brett Gardner who actually shows up in the second half. His highest ranking was 162 by the panel, but had I been on this, he would have been in my top 150 as I feel he is a top 40 outfielder for 2017.

OUTFIELD

Rajai Davis – Median Rank: 237

Davis has not had a season with more than 500 plate appearances since 2010, which also happens to be the last time he played for Oakland. Power has trended up the last two seasons league-wide, but steals continue to trend down, which makes Davis a valued commodity. He has stolen 30 or more bases in seven of the last eight seasons and will lead off for Oakland and have a green light to run as much as he wants. The crazy part of it is that he has swiped 61 bags from 2015-2016 despite just a .306 on base percentage. The key point is he does not get on base much, but when he gets on, he is not standing still long.

OUTFIELD

Jason Heyward – Median Rank: 257

For all of these reasons.