This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Super Two Status
Usually a player must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before being arbitration eligible, but those awarded Super Two status are the exception. If a player has fewer than three years of service time, but more than two AND they rank within the top 22 percent of all two-year players in terms of service time, then that player will become arbitration eligible. Super Two players get four years of salary arbitration instead of the typical three, and for a really good player, this can end up costing the team more than $10 million.
Last year's cutoff for Super Two status was two years, 130 days of MLB service time (written as 2.130). Attempting to manipulate the call-up of a top prospect because of Super-Two fears is a very inexact science, but there is a general range team's can work with. In 2014, the cutoff was 2.133. In 2013, the cutoff was 2.122, and in 2012 the cutoff was 2.139. A general rule of thumb is that if a team calls up a prospect prior to July, that player will have a good chance of being awarded Super Two status in a few years.
Considering there is no exact date involved, and it is dependent on what is happening with other players, it is impossible to pinpoint a player's call-up date based on Super Two ramifications. That said, here are some players who could be strategically called up in July as their team's look
Super Two Status
Usually a player must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before being arbitration eligible, but those awarded Super Two status are the exception. If a player has fewer than three years of service time, but more than two AND they rank within the top 22 percent of all two-year players in terms of service time, then that player will become arbitration eligible. Super Two players get four years of salary arbitration instead of the typical three, and for a really good player, this can end up costing the team more than $10 million.
Last year's cutoff for Super Two status was two years, 130 days of MLB service time (written as 2.130). Attempting to manipulate the call-up of a top prospect because of Super-Two fears is a very inexact science, but there is a general range team's can work with. In 2014, the cutoff was 2.133. In 2013, the cutoff was 2.122, and in 2012 the cutoff was 2.139. A general rule of thumb is that if a team calls up a prospect prior to July, that player will have a good chance of being awarded Super Two status in a few years.
Considering there is no exact date involved, and it is dependent on what is happening with other players, it is impossible to pinpoint a player's call-up date based on Super Two ramifications. That said, here are some players who could be strategically called up in July as their team's look to avoid giving them that extra year of arbitration:
Nomar Mazara - Following the Ian Desmond signing, Mazara's ETA moved from the spring to the summer, but even if he doesn't have a full-time job, he's too talented to stay in the minors all year. It shouldn't take long for him to show that he needs a challenge, and if an injury doesn't open a door, he'll likely be up as soon as the Rangers believe the Super Two cutoff has passed.
Lucas Giolito - The Nationals could very well bring Giolito up in the first couple months if there is an injury in the big league rotation, or if they are struggling to get useful contributions from the fifth starter spot. However, if everything goes according to plan, Giolito may not come up until July.
Tim Anderson - Even after the Jimmy Rollins signing, Anderson may still be the organization's best bet at shortstop this year. That said, Rollins' leadership and a crowded Dodgers roster helped him fend off Corey Seager for five months last year, so Anderson could similarly be kept down longer than his talent dictates in 2016.
J.P. Crawford - For non-contenders, there's no reason not to look at things like the Super Two cutoff, even for a team with deep pockets like the Phillies. Crawford is too talented not to come up some time this year, but look for Super Two strategy to factor into the call-up date.
Orlando Arcia - Just like with Crawford and the Phillies, the Brewers don't really have any incentive to bring up Arcia until everything aligns in their favor with regard to service time and Super Two status. He'll be up this year, but it might not be until around the All-Star break.
Nick Williams - He is in the exact same boat as Crawford, although his approach may lead to more initial struggles against big league pitching. Like with Joey Gallo and Javier Baez, Williams could benefit from getting an accelerated call-up, and then if he fails miserably to make enough contact, he would get sent back down to refine his approach, as he is too talented for his flaws to show up against Triple-A pitching.
Lewis Brinson - Brinson is not as refined offensively as Mazara, so he could actually use a half season at Triple-A. That said, he already represents a defensive upgrade over Delino DeShields Jr. in center field, so once the Super Two cutoff has passed, he could force DeShields into a fourth outfielder role.
Bradley Zimmer - Zimmer fits perfectly here, as he probably needs exactly another half season in the upper levels before he's ready for The Show. The Indians are also penny pinchers, so they will certainly be estimating the Super Two cutoff with regards to when they bring him up.
Josh Bell - The Pirates are pretty high on John Jaso being a strong option for them at first base against right-handed pitching, and considering Bell is better against righties than lefties, he doesn't fit as a platoon option. With that in mind, it could take an injury to Jaso for Bell to get the call, as the stingy Pirates probably won't bring him up before the Super Two cutoff unless they are in dire need of his services.
Jesse Winker - Winker, like Anderson, is probably already the best option at his position for his big league club, but with the Reds rebuilding, they would be foolish to rush him up ahead of the Super Two cutoff. While he is at Triple-A, the team will get a nice long look at Scott Schebler to see if he fits into their long-term plans.
Getting An Extra Year Of Control
While some players will be specifically called up after a team thinks the Super Two date has passed, there are other players who will be called up well before July, and for those players there is another aspect of service time that is incredibly important for teams.
According to the CBA, players are entitled to free agency after six or more years of major league service time. A year of service time is defined as 172 days on a major league roster, but a typical season lasts 183 days. This means that as long as a player is called up with fewer than 172 days remaining in the season, they will be under their current team's control for seven years, instead of six. With most players, this is far more important than saving $10 or $20 million by dodging Super Two status. Good players are going to get paid, but having that extra year of control puts a team in a better bargaining position when they start to talk about a contract extension with the young players, and it also gives the team an extra year right in the middle of that player's prime. April 15 is this year's date when teams can start calling up top prospects and retain that extra year of control.
Here are this year's top options to be called up shortly after April 15:
Julio Urias - This may be surprising, and admittedly, a couple months ago I thought it was a long shot that Urias would be up in the first half. However, injuries have ravaged the Dodgers' rotation, and considering how many of their starters should be returning from injuries this summer, it makes sense to tap into Urias' innings sooner than later. He will likely be capped around 120 innings this season, meaning there is no way to utilize him at the big league level for more than 15-20 starts, so the Dodgers should be strategic about when they get those starts. They could use Urias in May and June, and then bring Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu or Frankie Montas into the fold this summer.
A.J. Reed - Of minor leaguers who have yet to debut in the big leagues, Reed should be the top target in single-season leagues. It is starting to look like he will be sent down to start the season, but Jonathan Singleton has done nothing to suggest he is capable of holding that job for more than a few weeks. Tyler White not being on the 40-man roster complicates matters further, as he too seems like a better option than Singleton, but that would really force the Astros' hand. Either way, Reed will either break camp with the team or be up shortly after April 15, as the Astros also have question marks at DH with Evan Gattis still recovering from sports hernia surgery.
Jose Berrios - Everyone, even the Twins, know that Berrios is one of the team's five best starters (possibly their best starter), but as they continue to operate as a small market team (even though they aren't one), they will happily grab that extra year of control. Berrios should be the No. 2 pitching prospect selected in single-season drafts this year behind Steven Matz.
Blake Snell - This is a tough one to peg, as the Rays are famously slow to promote pitching prospects, and the rotation is set with five average or better starters to begin the season. However, Snell has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, so as soon as the Rays need to address an injury in the rotation, he should be the guy to get the call. This could be in April, May or June, so investing aggressively carries some risk.
Tyler Glasnow - Glasnow still has some work to do at Triple-A with his command. However, unlike Snell, there is nobody standing in Glasnow's way once he shows he's ready for the big leagues. He carries a bit more risk than Snell, as it's unclear when he will get the call, and his shaky command/control makes it more likely that he will struggle initially against major league hitters.
Trevor Story - In a bizarre scenario where Story doesn't make the team out of camp, he should be up shortly after April 15. Given his home ballpark and power/speed combo, Story should be at least a serviceable middle infield option in mixed leagues once he's playing regularly for the Rockies.
Cody Reed - A spring training darling, Reed was already ranked as the Reds' best pitching prospect by our site this winter, and now fantasy owners are starting to take notice. Given the injuries in the Reds' rotation, he could make the team out of camp, despite having never pitched at Triple-A. Even if he is sent down initially, he should get the call sometime in the first couple months.
Sean Manaea - Another spring training star, Manaea should get his shot in the big leagues sooner than later. The A's are as aggressive as any organization with their pitching prospects, so Super Two concerns won't factor into Manaea's call-up date. He threw exactly 100 innings last year between the minor leagues and the Arizona Fall League, so he may be capped at around 130-140 innings, but he has just as much upside as Glasnow or Reed in the short term.
