Jameson Taillon

Taillon was a mystery heading into the season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and opted out of the truncated campaign, but he was able to rehab at the Pirates alternate site. Pittsburgh dealt Taillon to the Yankees in the offseason, and he broke camp in the rotation. With only 37.1 innings on his ledger since 2019, Taillon compiled 144.1 frames, posting a career high 23.2% K%. Taillon's normal 50% groundball rate dropped to 33%, resulting in a career worst 1.50 HR/9. Even battling gopheritis, Taillon managed a 4.30 ERA, which was encouraging considering the long layoff and league change. Taillon was shelved for three weeks down the stretch with a right ankle tendon injury, requiring surgery after the season. He made a start early in spring training, and it appears he'll be ready by Opening Day. The injury and 2021's bloated ERA presents a buying opportunity as Taillon is likely to revert to his groundball ways, reducing homers.

Taillon's career should become a movie if he comes out on the other side of everything with a success story. In the past six years, he has gone through two Tommy John surgeries as well as a bout of testicular cancer. He has spent more time in rehab than on the pitching mound, and 2020 was no different. Taillon had his second TJS in mid-August of 2019, so pitching in 2020 was never really on the table for him anyhow. In between injuries, he has pitched well to the Pittsburgh pitching script and still gets his strikeouts while being stingy with walks. He added a new slider in 2018, and was throwing it as his primary pitch before is elbow gave out again in the summer of 2019. Most pitchers do not return to their previous form until two years post-surgery, so expect some bumps in the road with Taillon, especially early on. Look at Chris Bassitt in 2019 -- first half vs. second half -- if you want a roadmap.

If you are reading this for research in a redraft league, you may stop now. If you are in a keeper league or dynasty league, you may still want to move on. Taillon had his second Tommy John surgery on Aug. 14, 2019 and it has already been said that he will not pitch in 2020. The list of pitchers making successful comebacks to consistent productivity after two TJ surgeries is quite small. Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Hudson are the two most recent examples, but even Eovaldi's success was one year before he fell back into the dumps last season. Taillon will return as a 29-year-old in 2021, and may see his future in the bullpen.

After he showed signs of a breakout in 2017, everything came together for Taillon in 2018. The only thing keeping him from the elite is a strikeout rate a little low for a fantasy ace. That said, last season his SwStr% improved to 10.7 after sitting at 8.2 the previous year. His K% rose only 1.5 points to 22.8, but if he maintains last year’s swinging-strike mark, his whiff total could increase a bit. Taillon cut his walk rate down to a stingy 5.9%. He added a slider to his arsenal, which was most effective as a swing-and-miss pitch versus righties. Honing sequencing could help sync up Taillon’s K% and SwStr%. He’s reducing his changeup usage, which is good as it's his worst pitch. It’s rare a pitcher possesses the combination of durability and a solid floor with the potential for another level. This could be your last chance to roster Taillon at a non-ace price.

After what Taillon went through last summer, it feels unfair to be critical of his season. Fortunately, despite an unsightly 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, there are lot of positives. On May 8, Taillon was sporting a 3.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP when he was treated for testicular cancer. After returning on June 12, his ratios soared to 4.85 and 1.54 the rest of the way. A 3.48 xFIP and 3.89 FIP suggest Taillon incurred some bad luck on the field, not just off it. The culprit was a .352 BABIP, from a high line drive rate. His 21.3 percent strikeout rate was on par with his career mark, though a 7.8 percent walk rate was a little high. A 47.3 percent groundball rate helped him allow only 11 homers in 133.2 innings. Expecting a BABIP regression is reasonable, though it still should be a little high as a groundball pitcher. If the market penalizes him for last season, take advantage.

Taillon made an impressive major league debut for anyone in 2016, let alone a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery. The 25-year-old right-hander hadn't pitched at any level since 2013 thanks to a plethora of injuries and ailments. He stayed healthy in 2016 and showed why Pittsburgh drafted him with the second pick in the 2010 draft, ahead of Manny Machado. Taillon began the campaign with Triple-A Indianapolis, crafting a 2.04 ERA and a stunning 61:6 K:BB in 61.2 innings covering 10 starts, and never looked back after debuting with the Pirates in early June. He perfected a two-seam fastball in spring training and used that 94.2 mph weapon 39.7 percent of the time - as it was particularly effective against left-handed batters. Perhaps most impressively, he posted a 85:17 K:BB as a rookie and registered a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 104 innings. Armed with a 12-to-6 curveball and pinpoint accuracy, Taillon just needs to stay healthy to stake his claim as Pittsburgh's ace in 2017.

Taillon will attempt to come back from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last April and hernia surgery last July. The right-hander completed fall instructs healthy and is expected to be ready for spring training. He’ll start 2016 pitching for Triple-A Indianapolis with a shot at a midseason promotion, but remember that Taillon has only tossed 384 innings since his 2010 draft date and has yet to dominate any level. Pittsburgh would gladly welcome Taillon — who has swing-and-miss stuff — as a fourth or fifth starter, but fantasy owners might want to temper expectations.

Taillon, the second overall pick in the 2010 first-year player draft, underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2013. He was expected to serve as a midseason Super 2 callup in the order of Gerrit Cole but instead faced the long 12-to-18 month rehab process. Pittsburgh will take a conservative approach with its top pitching prospect in 2015. Taillon has thrown just 382 innings in parts of three minor league seasons, including only 37 at Triple-A. The righty has yet to dominate at any level for an extended period of time and the Pirates will almost certainly give him substantial Triple-A time before a possible big-league promotion. Taillon remains a prized keeper league property, one which fantasy owners need to keep a close eye on throughout his rehab process.

The second overall pick in the 2010 draft, Taillon gave a glimpse of his potential in the WBC, striking out David Wright and Ryan Braun in four innings of one-run ball for Team Canada. He spent most of 2013 with Double-A Altoona and posted an uninspiring 4-7 record with a 3.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but a 106:36 K:BB ratio in 110.1 innings highlighted his elite prospect status. Pittsburgh then promoted the 22-year-old to Triple-A in August, where he registered a 3.89 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 37:16 K:BB ratio while limiting batters to a .218 batting average. Pirates GM Neal Huntington expects Taillon to open with Triple-A Indianapolis in 2014, but once the organization is satisfied that Taillon's changeup is as effective as his plus fastball and curve, he will make his major-league debut.

Taillon persevered through an up-and-down Low-A season in 2012 well enough to earn a late promotion to Double-A. The hard-throwing righty compiled a 3.82 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 125 innings for Bradenton, including a 98:37 K:BB ratio. In three Altoona starts, Taillon limited opponents to three runs in 17 frames with 18 strikeouts and one walk. His potential is tremendous. It's easy to forget that Taillon went straight from high school to the minor leagues, but he's still learning on the fly. He's far from a finished product but has the stuff to be a staff ace. The 21-year-old will likely begin 2013 in Altoona. Pittsburgh remains conservative with its promotions, but it's possible Taillon could see his first major league action in September.

Taillon's numbers might not reflect his effectiveness because the organization instructed him to command his fastball at the risk of whiffing hitters with breaking balls. Once the Bucs are comfortable with his control, the kid gloves will come off and his repertoire will be in full effect. Taillon pitched well in his professional debut for Low-A West Virginia, compiling a 3.98 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 92.2 innings. More impressively, he put up a 97:22 K:BB ratio. Taillon will test his stuff at High-A Bradenton with a possible promotion to Double-A Altoona by summer's end. He's a cerebral pitcher who might be overshadowed by 2011 No. 1 pick, Gerrit Cole, but his future appears extremely bright. He could be pushing for a spot in Pittsburgh's rotation by 2013.

It's not likely the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft will be pitching in the big leagues for at least two or three years, but dynasty owners will want to consider adding him right away. Taillon comes out of high school with a fastball that sits around 94 mph and sometimes hits the high-90s. His ceiling is thought to be higher than any other hurler in last summer's draft, though time will tell. The Pirates are expected to start him out at Low-A West Virginia in 2011. Since he didn't sign until deadline day, the 6-foot-6 righty never pitched in the Bucs' organization, though he did take part in the Florida Instructional League. Taillon has drawn comparisons to Josh Beckett. Pittsburgh hasn't developed a front-line starter for many years but is hoping Taillon finally fits the bill.