This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An eight-game main slate awaits Saturday evening at FanDuel. Of the 16 listed pitchers, just three are priced in five figures, and two more in the 9k range, so there's not a plethora of payup options. Run lines say we don't have to use a payup option, but we'll see if that holds true as we sort through this. Coors Field is present, giving us an 11.0 run expectancy, but no other game comes in higher than 8.5, low lighted by Seattle-Texas at a paltry 6.5 runs.
We again need to track rain chances in Atlanta as the remininants of a hurricane circle. That obviously comes with wind as well, where it appears to be blowing in substantially, a clear detriment to hitters. As is relatively standard, we've got outbound winds in San Francisco and Anaheim, while everything else looks to be of a left-to-right nature.
Pitching
Jack Flaherty, LAD at ATL ($10,600): All three of the top priced arms need to be heavily considered, and I'm curious as to how Chris Sale's rostered percentages shake out against the Dodgers. Logan Gilbert comes in that game with a 6.5 run line, so the appeal is obvious. But I'll settle on Flaherty in between as my preference. The game comes with a 7.5 run total, where Atlanta is curiously expected to get four of those. If we buy the wind blowing in, I don't see that. They managed 10 hits last night, but have had a season long issue with manufacturing runs. They strike out 24.2 percent of the time, and hit ground balls as a 42.1 percent clip. When they do lift it, it seems likely to stay in the park. Flaherty hasn't been under 27 fantasy points in the second half of the season, has won three of his last four and has 13 strikeouts over his last 13 innings. A pitchers duel is in order, and we can get the same potential for a slightly reduced price.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI vs. MIL ($8,700): Truth be told, I don't love much outside of the slate's top three, but Milwaukee's offense likely doesn't scare many. They've scored just 11 runs in their last five and come with a fair 23.6 percent K rate off righties. Pfaadt has struck out 82 in 78.2 innings at home, allowing a .301 wOBA but is laboring of late, allowing at least three runs and eight hits in each of his last five starts. He's still managed 40-plus fantasy points twice in those outings, giving him potential to match the top options, albeit at a less probable percentage.
Nick Martinez, CIN at MIN ($7,800): It's far more form over matchup, but for the price, Martinez offers high-end potential. He's allowed just one run and eight hits over his last 12.2 innings, striking out 12. Minnesota is statistically above average off righties with a 110 wRC+ and 21.4 percent K rate, but the regular lineup is littered with injuries. They've lost five of their last seven, scoring two runs or less in four of those.
Top Targets
I've beaten this to a pulp, but writing this column on consecutive days leads to a lot of similar thoughts. But if they are valid thoughts, repeating is fine. We can go back to the well with Brent Rooker ($3,900), who has a .401 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .270 ISO off righties. He went 1-for-4 last night with an RBI and stolen base, has hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games with six homers, and White Sox starter Chris Flexen's 4.26 ERA comes with an elevated 5.49 xFIP.
Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland continues to buck the trend and pitch better at home than on the road. But we've got a second straight lefty for the Cubs to face, so I'll go right back to the well with Isaac Paredes ($3,600) and Dansby Swanson ($3,400), who combined for five hits last night. Swanson was elevated to the two hole in the lineup as well, boosting his potential.
Bargain Bats
We're going to have to take some chances in the bargain bin in some of these expected lower scoring games. It's predominately a BvP play, but Justin Turner ($2,600) is 6-for-18 with four homers against Max Scherzer. He's got seven hits in as many games, three for extra bases, adding five runs and four walks.
Justin Verlander is not the guy we know he's been, but I can't find one Angel bat I'd trust confidently. As such, I'd suggest building out without one, but know you can target a cheap option to complete your build. Logan O'Hoppe ($2,900), Mickey Moniak ($2,700) and Niko Kavadas ($2,500) all have a chance to provide a power return.
No Rockie has more than nine at bats against Jameson Taillon, but they are collectively hitting .318 (14-for-44) with an .889 OPS. Ryan McMahon ($3,300) is 4-for-9 off of him and isn't too expensive for a run producer in Coors Field. I don't hate taking a shot on Nolan Jones ($2,700). It's been a season-long struggle for last year's breakout player, but his lone hit off Taillon in four tries left the yard, something he hasn't done in the entire second half of the season.
Stack to Consider
Padres vs. Mason Black (Giants): Fernando Tatis ($3,600), Manny Machado ($3,500), Luis Arraez ($2,900)
Black has been marginally better at home, but his splits allow us to target freely throughout the Padres lineup, allowing a .406 wOBA and .949 OPS to righties and .396/.926 to lefties. Tatis has now homered in three straight and isn't priced up. Machado has alternated games with multiple hits, and if that trend holds, he's due for an off night, so I don't hate if you want to go with a second piece that's cheaper here, but we'll need to see the lineup card first. Arraez flirts with must use at this price. He's got an 11-game hitting streak, collecting 22 hits in that span and scoring nine runs. Usually a limited upside guy, Arraez has double-digit fantasy points in seven of those 11.
