Elmer Dessens

Dessens was acquired by the Rockies in August when injuries decimated their starting rotation, starting five games and posting an ugly 7.58 ERA. He was slowed much of the year by shoulder and hamstring injuries, but will try to win a long-relief role with the Pirates this spring where he'd likely make a few spot starts as needed.

Dessens came back to Los Angeles for a second stint with the Dodgers as part of the trade with Kansas City involving Odalis Perez. He will give the Dodgers innings out of the pen in 2007, but with ERAs of 4.56 and 4.50 the past two years and just two saves over that period, so he doesn't hold much promise.

Dessens will pick up an occasional start for the Royals, but he's now mostly just a swingman without a shot at a regular spot in the starting rotation. The move from the NL to the AL and out of Dodger Stadium doesn't bode well.

The Dodgers acquired Dessens from the Diamondbacks to bolster their pen for the stretch run last season. He performed well as a spot starter and in long relief last season and that's probably his best role. There's nothing to like here from a fantasy perspective.

Dessens endured by far his worst year as a starter in 2003, proving that his 3.03 ERA with the Reds just the year before was a fluke. (And, no, the 5.07 wasn't "unlucky"; according to the Bill James Handbook, Dessens' component ERA was 5.19, so he got the ERA he deserved.) That said, Dessens' numbers should improve at least slightly this year; he'll probably start the year as the D-Backs' #3 starter, up a notch from last year, thanks to the departure of Schilling, Kim, and Batista, which means he'll get fewer skipped turns than he had last year. In addition, as a groundball pitcher, he should benefit from what should be an improved Arizona infield defense in 2004.

Dessens doesn't overwhelm opposing batters, but is quietly effective nonetheless. Even though his strikeout rate declined, and his walk rate increased, Dessens' ERA dropped by over a full point. Why? He maintained a high groundball/flyball ratio while allowing fewer hits per inning pitched. If you subscribe to the theory that a pitcher can only control walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed, while hits allowed are largely a matter of chance, then you should probably expect Dessens' ERA is to take a turn for the worse in 2003. With the D-Backs, he'll get enough run support, and the occasional skipped turn that Bob Brenly gives every starter besides Johnson and Schilling, to go maybe 10-12, 4.50, and probably get bumped from the postseason roster. There's very little upside to that, and plenty of downside; in NL-only leagues, both Miguel Batista and John Patterson in Arizona's rotation should get drafted before Dessens.