This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
2015 Minnesota Twins Preview
Minnesota endured a fourth consecutive season of 90 or more losses in 2015, but the bigger disappointment was that many of the team's top hitting prospects missed significant time due to injury which stalled the rebuilding process. Miguel Sano missed the entire season after Tommy John surgery. Byron Buxton played just 31 games due to a variety of ailments. Eddie Rosario missed half the season due a suspension.
While the major league team struggled and top hitting prospects were hurt, the Twins saw improvement in upper tier pitching prospects and pitching prospect depth. As a result, the Twins could be competitive as early as 2016 if all goes well. The Twins are likely to lose close to 90 games once more in 2015, but the products of a farm system that is ranked near the the top again (No. 2 from Baseball Prospectus and No. 2 from ESPN) should finally start making an impact in the majors. Sano and Buxton are likely to make their major league debuts. Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios could be in the rotation by year end. And a wave of recent high velocity college relievers could soon join the bullpen.
Until the prospects arrive, the Twins will likely continue with the main trend that's kept them in the AL Central cellar - poor starting pitching. The Twins were once again last in the AL in ERA and strikeout rate by a considerable margin. The Twins have been in the bottom four overall in team ERA and the bottom five in K/9 each of the past four seasons. The Twins signed Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco to the two biggest free agent contracts in franchise history before last season to stem the tide. While Hughes was a success, Nolasco was a disaster and the rest of the rotation struggled. Compounding the pitching woes is a defense that ranked last in defensive efficiency (according to Baseball Prospectus) led by a brutal outfield defense.
Minnesota's offense was a surprising fifth in the AL in runs scored as the team was second in OBP. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas made jumps from Double-A and unexpectedly made an impact in the lineup. Brian Dozier showed his 2013 breakout season was no fluke and Trevor Plouffe improved his fielding enough to stay in the lineup. The Twins signed Torii Hunter to add veteran leadership to the impending youth movement. However, his lack of range exacerbates the outfield defense issues and it's not clear the Twins rotation will be significantly better. At least Twins fans may finally have reasons to get excited about the team in the second half when the top prospects hopefully start cementing their spots in the team's future.
Offseason Moves:
Signed Ervin Santana to a four-year, $54 million contract
Santana becomes the latest stopgap to try and turnaround the league's worst starting pitching. The Twins hope his 8.6 K/9 from last season is sustainable in the AL and will help a team sorely lacking in strikeouts.
Signed Torii Hunter to a one-year, $10.5 million contract
With four losing seasons, Minnesota signed the former Twins star to create some good will with the fans and to help mentor the younger players. Hunter will turn 40 this season and he can still hit (.286/.319/.446 with 17 homers last season), but his outfield defense has become a liability (-18.3 UZR).
Signed Tim Stauffer to a one-year, $2.2 million contract
Stauffer posted a 6-2 record primarily as a reliever for the Padres in 2014, posting a 3.50 ERA over 64.1 innings. He had a career-high 9.4 K/9 IP as his strikeout rate has increased the past two seasons as a reliever. He'll compete for the fifth starter role with the Twins, but more likely will be used as a swingman out of the bullpen. His recent success as a reliever shows that's where he may be best suited.
The Twins declined the $3.6 million option for 2015 in Jared Burton's contract
Burton had served as Glen Perkins' primary setup man the past two seasons, which leaves the setup corps in flux.
Projected Lineup/Rotation:
1. SS Danny Santana
2. 2B Brian Dozier
3. 1B Joe Mauer
4. DH Kennys Vargas
5. RF Torii Hunter
6. LF Oswaldo Arcia
7. 3B Trevor Plouffe
8. C Kurt Suzuki
9. CF Aaron Hicks / Jordan Schafer
Minnesota's lineup may be in flux all season as few players are locks to keep their jobs all season. The center field job is up for grabs and Danny Santana could move back to the position if Hicks or Schafer can't win the job this spring. If Santana moves back to the outfield, Eduardo Escobar would return as the starting shortstop. Escobar is otherwise set for a utility role. Vargas hit nine home runs in 53 games as a rookie, but the sample size is so small it's hard to see him staying in the majors with an extended slump as the Twins may want him to get more time in the high minors. With injury and downside risk for Hunter, the lineup the second half of the season could be much different when Sano, Buxton or other top prospects are seen ready for the majors.
Projected Starting Rotation:
SP1 Phil Hughes
SP2 Ervin Santana
SP3 Kyle Gibson
SP4 Ricky Nolasco
SP5 Tommy Milone / Tim Stauffer / Alex Meyer /Trevor May / Mike Pelfrey
Even though Minnesota's starting rotation was one of the worst in the majors last season, there's little competition this spring. Only the fifth starter role is up for grabs with Alex Meyer the early favorite in a competition that includes Tim Stauffer, Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Tommy Milone. However, GM Terry Ryan has said Meyer could begin the season in the bullpen if he loses out on the job.
CL: Glen Perkins
Key bullpen members: Casey Fien / Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar
Minnesota's bullpen has been the strength of the team the past few years, but it's a bit in flux for 2015. Perkins is set in his role as the closer, but his health may be a risk after missing the final week of last season with a left forearm strain and secondary nerve irritation in his elbow. The departure of Jared Burton leaves the setup corps a bit unsettled. Brian Duensing and Casey Fien have the most experience and should have prominent roles. Caleb Thielbar's limited velocity (88.8 mph average fastball) is a worry. Michael Tonkin could take over a setup role after a strong September callup. The relief corps could be re-shaped later in the season by several hard-throwing relief prospects who could quickly make the majors including 2014 draft picks Jake Reed (5th round) and Nick Burdi (2nd round).
Notes of Import, Fantasy and Otherwise:
As the Twins approach spring training the biggest questions are:
1. How soon do Minnesota's top prospects arrive in the majors?
Minnesota's roster should look dramatically different between the start and end of the 2015 season. Twins GM Terry Ryan has said that Miguel Sano likely needs extended time in the minors after missing a year due to Tommy John surgery. At one point he said Sano needed a full season in the minors, but recent comments have opened the door that he could be promoted late in the year. Buxton is also seen needing time in the minors, but it may only be a few months of showing he's healthy before he gets the call up. Both will likely start in Double-A and it wouldn't be surprising if the Twins saw several players jump two levels as was the case with Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas last year. Eddie Rosario took a step back after missing 50 games due to a suspension for his second positive test for a drug of abuse .he hit just .243/.286/.387 in 87 games between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain. But it's not hard to see him climbing to the majors if he has a hot first few months. Several top pitching prospects could also reach the majors with Jose Berrios likely to begin the season at Triple-A.
By the second half of the season, the Minnesota lineup could like:
1. SS Danny Santana
2. CF Byron Buxton
3. 1B Joe Mauer
4. 2B Brian Dozier
5. DH Kennys Vargas
6. RF Oswaldo Arcia
7. 3B Miguel Sano
8. C Kurt Suzuki
9. LF Eddie Rosario
This assumes players like Torii Hunter, Trevor Plouffe and Aaron Hicks will be hurt, lose everyday playing time or traded, but it's not out of the realm of possibility with a rebuilding franchise.
2. Who's the fifth starter?
The fifth starter role is a wide open competition this spring between Alex Meyer, Tim Stauffer, Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Tommy Milone. Meyer likely has the most upside as Minnesota's top pitching prospect. But he could begin the season in the bullpen as GM Terry Ryan said he could begin the season as a reliever. Milone may be the favorite despite his struggles with the Twins last season after coming over in a trade from Oakland. Milone had offseason surgery to remove a benign tumor from his neck, but is expected to be healthy to start spring training. May struggled in the majors last year but has a decent enough strikeout rate to contend. However, Ryan's comments that May won't be considered for the bullpen likely has him ticketed to Triple-A. Stauffer may be a fallback option as he's best suited for the bullpen. Pelfrey is a long shot after his awful first two seasons with the Twins.
3. Who's starting at CF?
Minnesota's center field job is wide open at the start of spring training. Aaron Hicks will compete with Jordan Schafer for the starting role with Danny Santana set to move to shortstop. It's possible Hicks and Schafer could platoon, as Hicks has struggled against right-handed pitchers. Santana could also move back to center field, where he mostly played last season, if Hicks or Schafer struggles in spring training or if Santana's defense at shortstop isn't seen as adequate. Whoever wins the job may just keep the job for a few months until Byron Buxton reaches the majors.
Strengths: Depth in the minor leagues, surprising OBP from core lineup.
Weaknesses: Starting pitching, outfield defense.
Sleepers
Rising: Danny Santana made quite the impression with a blistering rookie season and may become a cornerstone of Minnesota's rebuilding effort. The Twins aggressively promoted Santana in May after just 24 games at Triple-A. Once in the majors, he was given a shot at the starting center field job despite never regularly playing the position, with the Twins desperate for production. Santana took advantage of the opportunity, hitting .328 in his first month, and never slowed down (.314/.346/.483 in the second half). He was erratic in the outfield as he learned the position, but he showed outstanding range, a product of his excellent speed. It's not clear if he'll remain in the outfield, as the Twins still gave him occasional starts at shortstop and are contemplating moving him there permanently this spring. Santana's got a strong arm and good quickness, but it's not clear if he has the consistency to hold the job given his many errors at the position in the minors (36 errors in 2013). However, his 34 games played at shortstop likely qualify him as a shortstop in most formats, increasing his fantasy value. It's not clear he can sustain his level of success at the plate given that he had a low walk rate (4.4%), a high BABIP (.407) and with his major league success exceeding anything he did in the minors. But it's also possible he's just coming into his own at age 23 and could improve. Wherever he plays in 2015, his infield eligibility and speed on the base paths will make him a top fantasy option at shortstop.
Declining: Torii Hunter is no longer the same player from his prime years, but the ageless wonder hasn't had any large drop-off in recent years either. For the second consecutive season, Hunter manned right field on an everyday basis for the Tigers in 2014. He finished the season hitting .286/.319/.446 with 17 homers, 83 RBI, 71 runs and four steals. Other than a slight dip in batting average each of the past two seasons, Hunter's production from 2012-2014 is a near carbon copy from year-to-year. While he didn't take as many walks (3.9%) as in years past, Hunter cut down on strikeout rate (15.2%) and hit a sustainable .316 on balls in play. He also improved his line-drive rate to 21.3%, which marks the second-highest clip of his long career. Once an elite center fielder, Hunter's defense is the one area of his game that has taken a noticeable dip, as his -18.3 UZR was a personal worst by leaps and bounds. With the noticeable dip in his defensive play, it's not hard to envision him losing playing time since Minnesota's outfield defense is already poor and at age 40 the risk is to the downside.
Sleeper: Kennys Vargas wasn't thought to be a top prospect, as he was older than his competition at age 23 in his breakout season at High-A in 2013. However, Vargas thrived at Double-A by hitting .281/.360/.472 with 17 home runs, which resulted in the Twins calling him up at the end of July. Vargas stayed hot in the majors as he clubbed nine home runs in 53 games and hit .274/.316/.456. At 6-foot-5, 275 pounds, Vargas has tremendous power but has struggled to make contact (26.7% K% in the majors). However, he showed signs of plate discipline at Double-A with a good walk rate (10.6%) and manageable strikeout rate (16.8%). He'll thrive as an everyday player if he can carry over those trends to the majors. Where Vargas will play is an issue, as his defensive liabilities limit him to 1B and DH, where the Twins are crowded with veterans and prospects. GM Terry Ryan says Vargas can play the outfield, so he could find at-bats there as well. He enters 2015 as the leading candidate to start at DH for the Twins and could be a up-and-coming power source.
Super Sleeper: Josmil Pinto may be largely forgotten in your league after he failed to stick in the majors last season. However, he can still hit and Kurt Suzuki's career revival at the plate may be a fluke fueled by a career-high .315 BABIP. Pinto has shown good power and plate discipline and could be an impact player, but the Twins have inexplicably failed to try to find a role for him in the majors. The Twins haven't been happy with Pinto's defense behind the plate, but the team didn't try to find a part-time role at DH or first base either. He enters spring training with a chance at the backup catcher job, but may wind up in Triple-A again. If he doesn't win the backup role, it's possible he could be traded and find fantasy value with another organization.
Top Prospects
1. Byron Buxton OF - Buxton entered 2014 as the top prospect in baseball, but played just 31 games amid an injury-plagued season that set back his development a full year. Buxton suffered a pisotriquetral joint sprain in his left wrist in spring training and didn't begin his minor league season until May. After getting on the field at High-A Fort Myers, he aggravated the injury after just one week and proceeded to miss another two months. When he finally returned in July, he was quickly promoted to Double-A - where he suffered a season-ending concussion in a collision with a teammate in the outfield in his first game. He returned for the Arizona Fall League but didn't do much at the plate as he hit .263/.311/.298 before suffering yet another injury, a broken finger. None of Buxton's injuries are expected to be an issue in spring training, but his lack of playing time likely pushed back timetable for becoming the everyday center fielder for the Twins from 2015 to 2016. Further, his multitude of injuries - including a shoulder injury in the 2013 AFL - raise concerns that he's injury prone. However, his limited performance did nothing to dissuade analysts and scouts that he's still among the elite prospects in baseball. In 2013, he also showed impressive control of the strike zone, striking out in just 18.3% of his plate appearances, while drawing walks 13.2% of the time. Buxton's speed also results in outstanding defense in center field, and while his 12 home runs in 2013 weren't overly impressive, scouts expect him to develop more power as he grows. He'll likely begin 2015 at Double-A and the Twins will likely give him extended time in the minors to prove he can stay healthy. If everything goes well, he could push his way to Minnesota before the end of the season.
2. Miguel Sano 3B - Sano entered spring training 2014 as one of the top hitting prospects in baseball with an outside shot to win the starting third base job, but suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2014 season but is expected to be ready by spring training. When we last saw Sano on the field, he hit a combined .280/.382/.610 with 35 home runs between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain in 2013. Sano draws walks at a strong rate (12%), but also strikes out too much (142 strikeouts). He will need to make better contact for his batting average not to be a drag in the majors. Sano showed improvement with his fielding at third base in 2013, but it's still not clear if he'll stick at the hot corner in the majors. The missed season may prolong his time in the minors, as GM Terry Ryan said the Twins don't plan for him to contend for a major league job this spring and he'll likely spend a full season in the minors. However, a hot start to the season - and proof his elbow is back to full strength - could hasten that timetable. Sano is still projected to be an impact bat for the Twins and a pillar of the rebuilding effort.
3. Jose Berrios P - Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, jumped three levels in 2014 and has staked his claim to be considered Minnesota's top pitching prospect. He began the season at High-A, but was promoted to Double-A in July after going 9-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 109:23 K:BB ratio in 96.1 innings. His numbers were not as impressive at Double-A as he had a 3.54 ERA and just a 6.2 K/9, but he held his own as a younger player age 20 at the level. Berrios then made one appearance in September at Triple-A. He has a mid-90s fastball and showed strong strikeout rates before Double-A (10.2 K/9 at High-A) with good control. While some analysts question his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), he's also seen as athletic with strong secondary pitches. Berrios will likely begin the season at Double-A, but a strong first few months could push him to the majors by the end of the summer.
4. Alex Meyer P - Meyer enters 2015 as Minnesota's top pitching prospect and will contend for spot in the rotation in spring training. A 2011 first-round draft pick traded to Minnesota for Denard Span in 2012, Meyer is imposing (6-9, 220) and throws a mid-90s fastball. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 3.52 ERA, a 10.6 K/9 and 45.3% groundball rate. He did miss the final few weeks of the season with right shoulder inflammation, but it's not expected to be an issue by spring training. Meyer does need to reduce his walks (4.4 BB/9) and he has been inconsistent. Still, his strong velocity is much needed on Minnesota's staff and he'll likely get a shot at the big league rotation early in 2015 even if doesn't win the job in April.
5. Kohl Stewart - Stewart, the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, is regarded as one of Minnesota's top pitching prospects after a promising first full season of professional baseball. Stewart had a 2.59 ERA for Low-A Cedar Rapids and more than held his old as a 19-year-old. While his strikeout rate wasn't spectacular (6.4 K/9), there's reason to think it will improve since he hits 95 mph with his fastball. He also kept the ball on the ground with a 52 percent groundball rate and only four home runs allowed in 19 starts. Right shoulder inflammation ended his season in August, but Stewart is expected to be ready for spring training. He'll likely begin the season in High-A and could be on track to reach the majors as early as 2017.
