The Z Files: Would You Rather, Pitching Style

One of my responsibilities as a member of the board administering Tout Wars is organizing the "Tout Table". Several times throughout the season, I'll pose a question to the 97 Touts, then compile the responses and post them on the site. One of the questions I annually ask is, "Would you rather?" while offering two or three players, and the Tout chooses the one they prefer for the rest of the season.

The latest Tout Table was the pitching version. Five pairs of pitchers were presented. Based on the results, I didn't do an especially good job making it a tough call. At the time, the duo was ranked closely based on earnings. A couple were selected because I thought they were intriguing, but admittedly there are a few selfish inclusions of pitchers on which I desired a heat check.

Below are the five choices, with an explanation of my preference. The projection is mine (not RotoWire's) and reflects action through Monday night. Also included is the rest of season ERA and WHIP from The Bat, as well as the projected rest of season earnings.

My choice is Yamamoto. The Touts were in agreement with 79.4 percent choosing the Dodgers ace. My followers were also in lockstep:

To be honest, I don't understand how the poll could be so close. That said, the betting odds have flipped with Imanaga now the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Admittedly, he's been better than expectations, but I suspect many are caught up in the story and not ranking objectively.

Yamamoto has the slight edge when using expected ERA. Imanaga's K-BB% is a tad better, but the Cubs righty will have a hard time maintaining his current strikeout and walk rate. The strikeout rate is fueled by a 16.0 percent swinging strike mark, the second highest among qualified starters. I question whether this is sustainable. Imanaga's called strike rate is 11.5 percent, the lowest among qualified starters. There is always the chance a drop in swinging strikes is countered by an increase in called strikes, but I'll take the under on Imanaga maintaining his current 27.8 percent strikeout rate. I'll also take the over on sustaining his 4.3 percent walk rate.

In Japan, home runs were Imanaga's main bugaboo. The Cubs worked with him in the spring, training him to use his four-seamer up in the zone. This may seem counterintuitive if homers are a problem, but the Cubs are confident that Imanaga's four-seamer will produce weak contact and not souvenirs. Even so, Wrigley Field shrinks as the mercury rises and the wind blows out.

As for Yamamoto, he's been as advertised. While this falls under the rubric of "it happened and can't be stricken from the record", when you omit his opener in Seoul, Yamomoto's ERA is 2.38 with a 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout rate is 28.0 percent, with a 4.7 percent walk rate. All things considered, minimizing the effect of Yamamoto's first start is fair when gauging future performance.

I chose Sale, but when I ran my weekend update, Glasnow is projected for $4 more earnings. The Touts were nearly unanimous with Glasnow capturing 91.2 percent of the votes. My followers were a little closer, but it's still Glasnow in a convincing manner.

Based on the comments, many felt Glasnow's skills are a bit better, as is his team context, with the injury risk being a wash. I agree on the former but am not convinced about the latter. However, since I can't argue Sale with throw more innings than Glasnow over the rest of the season, I'll stand down from my pick in the posted piece. The above table shows both hurlers with essentially the same workload for the remainder of 2024, so I'll defer to Glasnow's higher projected earnings. 

Please note, The Bat favors Sale, but I don't know how diligently the playing time is adjusted. The ratios are a wash.

Some mentioned this was the toughest decision and the results corroborate. My pick was Houck. The Touts backed Suarez with a 58.8 percent share.

Both starters are enjoying outstanding starts to the season so the underlying question is which will keep it up? Suarez is benefitting from a .215 BABIP and 87.3 percent left on base mark. Houck's good fortune is a low 2.6 percent home run per fly ball level.

Expected ERA, like xFIP and SIERA are designed to wash away luck (good and bad). They fashion the ERA around the expressed skills, but there's no guarantee the pitcher maintains that skill level. This is a misapplication of ERA estimators. Suarez's xFIP and SIERA does not portend a similar level for the rest of the season. They simply point out the skill level that has been demonstrated so far should have generated around a 2.75 ERA, as opposed to his actual 1.37 ERA.

I suspect Suarez's skills won't be as sharp as they've been to date. Granted, an improved changeup will cushion the fall, but both components of his 21.9 percent K-BB% are in danger of worsening. 

The same can be said for Houck, but I sense the changes he's made have more staying power. Houck has stopped throwing his four-seamer and reduced his cutter usage. Instead, he's throwing more sinkers and sliders. His control is better and he's commanding the ball very well.

I know my rest of season earnings are close, but I trust Houck's number more than those of Suarez. I'll take the over on Suarez's 3.14 projected ERA.

Did you really think I'd leave Ober out of the fun? Here's another instance where my pick in the piece is different than my projections. Let's say my head chooses Ryan, but my heart is forever in Ober's corner.

The Touts opted for Ryan, giving him 64.1 percent of the vote. My followers agreed.

My rest of season projections are eerily close. Let's tag in friend and colleague Eno Sarris from The Athletic. Sarris' Stuff+ and Command+ metrics are now available on Fangraphs. 

It's Ryan with the sweep, but not by much. if nothing else, my heart is happy the two Twins should be ranked more closely than many perceive.

I (rightfully) took some heat for this pair. For the record, the Touts were 97.1 percent for Ragans, and I was not in the sole dissenter. My followers were also lopsided.

Someone commented this must be a control, and I can't argue. Maybe the error bar on the data is +/- 9%.

For what's it worth, I wanted a heat check on both hurlers. I'm higher on Keller and lower on Ragans than most. That said, this was a silly way to get a read on these pitchers. I should have concocted fairer pairings. Yes, they were close in year-to-date earnings at the time, but still, mea culpa.

I usually show my work via math, but in this case it's mostly narrative. I know the data on Ragans reworked arsenal. His ranks No. 12 on Stuff+. Those whose niche is pitch shape rave about his repertoire. The data is there, I can't disagree.

My concern is how well Ragans maintains this level over the second half. Throwing baseballs is hard. The extent of his improvement is near unfathomable. This could be my age showing, but I need to see it before banking on it happening.

One of my worries heading into the season was that most of Ragans starts last season came with extended rest. In a vacuum, there is nothing wrong with that, but it's fair to wonder how he'll perform on  consistent four days of rest, even though slightly more starts in MLB are now on five days of rest.

So far, Ragans has started five times on five days or rest and four times with four days. For those curious, Ragans has fared better with less rest, but even if that were reversed, I'd contend the sample is too small to matter. The fact that the Royals are using Ragans on four days of rest sets up the second half scenario. I may be all wet. Time will tell.

As for Keller, it's more a matter of trusting his durability and expecting a rebound in the strikeout department. Even up, of course I prefer Ragans. 

In retrospect, Ragans versus Logan Webb and Keller versus Jack Flaherty would have been sager options.