The Z Files: Post-Trade Deadline Thoughts

Is it over? Can I finally hit save? Pardon me, it seems like I've been updating my playing time spreadsheets every day for the past 10 days, probably because I've been updating my playing time spreadsheets for the past 10 days. After trying to come up with a topic for this week's column and deciding none were worthy of an entire piece, I settled on sharing a series of thoughts as we head into the final two months of the season.

Trade deadline musings

The Los Angeles Dodgers didn't acquire Yu Darvish for August and September, they got him for October. Last season, his first after Tommy John surgery, Darvish threw 127.1 innings when his rehab starts are included. He's at 137 now. Four or five postseason starts adds another 30 to 35 frames, landing him around 170. If you're planning on 10 or 11 more starts, spanning 70 or so innings, I think you'll be disappointed. That would put Darvish's total around 240 innings. Though, even if he tosses only 50 more, 220 frames is still a huge jump from last year. A fair projection for Darvish is in the 3.30 ERA, 1.20 ERA range, with 60 or so punchouts in 55 innings.

On the other hand, the New York Yankees need everything they can get out of Sonny Gray. Sure, they fortified their bullpen, but they need to watch Luis Severino's innings as well as those of Masahiro Tanaka, while continuing to battle the Boston Red Sox for the division, likely down to the wire. The Dodgers have the luxury of a huge lead, not just in the division but also for best record in the National League. The Astros are within striking distance of home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they're likely to fall back with the injury to Lance McCullers. Back to Gray, he's obviously moving to a less-friendly park for pitchers, though Yankee Stadium is one of those odd venues pumping up homers but depressing runs. He's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard all season, albeit a much bigger yard. A reasonable expectation for Gray is an ERA in the 3.70-3.90 range, a WHIP around 1.24 and a modest 65 whiffs in 70 innings.

Moving to Coors Field is obviously an upgrade, even from Arlington, but it's not necessarily the panacea for soft contact. Jonathan Lucroy's season is beyond baffling. I was rather outspoken coming into the 2017 campaign, decreeing Lucroy as the top fantasy receiver in fantasy baseball. If you're still reading about baseball in August, you know the deal; he's been making contact at an extremely high rate, it's just mostly of the soft and medium variety. Lucroy's hard contact is pathetically low. I don't care how well the ball travels at altitude, you need to hit the ball with some modicum of authority. It's hard to believe in this era of selling out for power, Lucroy has consciously decided to focus on contact. A season-long injury is also unlikely, as you can't play his position nursing a health woe all season. Well, you can, it's just more likely that if his swoon was health related, we'd know that. If you're looking for a narrative to hang your hat on, playing in Coors Field has to get the adrenaline flowing. If the slump is in his head, maybe the move is the elixir. I've got Lucroy hitting .284 the rest of the way with five or six homers. There's obviously power upside, but I'm more confident he takes advantage of the spacious confines with base hits than sending balls over the fence.

Fantasy trade thoughts

We're at the point of the season where you know what categories have points in jeopardy, either to gain or lose. Trades should now be about roster potential, not the arbitrary value of a player. It's not about the actual players involved in the deal, but the makeup of your roster with and without the move. Evaluating an offer involves an honest answer to two questions:

1. Does the deal give me a better chance to win?
2. Can I make a better deal, involving these players?

If the answers are YES and NO, do the swap. It doesn't matter if you're dealing the better player, so long as you're improving your points potential.

Category math

Category math is the honest appraisal of the categories, determining where you can gain or lose points. If there's one piece of fantasy advice I'd like to be remembered for, it's that ratio categories are in play right up until the last day of the season. Too many believe the accumulation of at-bats and innings precludes movement in the associated categories. The fact of the matter is it's easier to move in batting average, ERA and WHIP than counting stats. The reasons are two-fold. First, you can't lose counting stats, but your opponents' ratios can get worse. More importantly, ratio categories are bunched tighter than counting stats. Of course, it all depends on where you sit within each category. The key is not categorically dismissing the ability to gain (or lose) points in ratios at any point of the season.

Player thoughts

Don't let his somewhat awkward batting stance fool you, Rafael Devers is the real deal. He may not be straight out of the Tom Emanski video series, but he's athletic and composed beyond his years. It remains to be seen how much Devers will play versus southpaws when the troops are all healthy, but the rookie will be in the lineup whenever a right-hander is on the hill. Boston will find other spots for Eduardo Nunez. Speaking of which, a tough decision is on hold as Dustin Pedroia's disabled list stint opens a spot for Nunez to play every day. The expectation is for Pedroia to be out the minimum 10 days, but there's no reason to rush him back. Nunez has been taking grounders at first, though it remains to be seen when he'll play there. Mitch Moreland is showing signs of snapping out of his malaise.

There's a couple of under-the-radar names to keep in mind for saves. Most expected Matt Belisle to inherit ninth-inning duties for the Twins. However, Taylor Rogers was named the interim closer. My speculative dart lands on Trevor Hildenberger. The 26-year old right-hander was groomed as a closer, though he's pitched in low-leverage scenarios since being promoted in late June. He's fanned 19 in 17.1 innings, despite a fastball averaging 88 mph, snail-like in today's landscape. His calling card is control and groundballs, walking only three hitters all season while surrendering only one homer. The other scenario to monitor is in Detroit with Joe Jimenez earning a second taste of The Show, after scuffling in April. Jimenez took to his demotion well, fanning 36 in 25 frames for Triple-A Toledo. Shane Greene has earned the chance to close, but his high walk rate is a concern. Jimenez, just 22 years old, is destined for late-inning duties.

Ketel Marte is away on bereavement, due back by Friday. What, you really thought I'd write a random thoughts piece without a note on Marte? Jokes aside, with Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed out, Marte will be competing with newly acquired Adam Rosales for playing time in the desert. Granted, it was at Triple-A Reno, one of the better hitting environments, but Marte slashed .338/.391/.514 on the farm. Since being summoned, he's slugged .500 in 70 plate appearances. Marte, known for speed more than pop, was caught in his only stolen base attempt. Still, the Diamondbacks are one of the top base stealing squads in the league so if you need some pilfers, Marte should be given a chance to show I didn't waste $6 on him in National League Tout Wars. Unfortunately, I really messed up spending the other $254, so it won't matter for me.