The Z Files: Playing Time Trends Part Two

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Updated on February 16, 2018 11:02AM EST

Last week, I discussed some playing time trends, for those inclined to adjust expectation to their own tastes. There was an abundance of numbers with a dearth of names. As a follow-up, the players enjoying a playing time bump during the span of the study will be revealed, in an effort to identify commonality to help peg this season's beneficiaries.

By means of reminder, the hitters' pool was grouped into tiers by number of plate appearances, looking at how many of each level garnered more playing time. Data from the previous six seasons was employed, generating five years' worth of batters. Age is as of June 1 of the later season.

2016-2017

Player 650-plus PA	2017	2016	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2017	2016	increase	AGE	POS
Francisco Lindor	723	684	5.7%	23	SS	Charlie Blackmon	725	641	13.1%	30	OF
Christian Yelich	695	659	5.5%	25	OF	Marcell Ozuna	679	608	11.7%	26	OF
Joey Votto	707	677	4.4%	33	1B	Brett Gardner	682	634	7.6%	33	OF
Anthony Rizzo	691	676	2.2%	27	1B	DJ LeMahieu	682	635	7.4%	28	2B
Brian Dozier	705	691	2.0%	30	2B	Khris Davis	652	610	6.9%	29	OF
Eric Hosmer	671	667	0.6%	27	1B	Adam Duvall	647	608	6.4%	28	OF
						Freddy Galvis	663	624	6.3%	27	SS
						Jose Ramirez	645	618	4.4%	24	2B/3B
						Jonathan Schoop	675	647	4.3%

2016-2017

Player 650-plus PA	2017	2016	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2017	2016	increase	AGE	POS
Francisco Lindor	723	684	5.7%	23	SS	Charlie Blackmon	725	641	13.1%	30	OF
Christian Yelich	695	659	5.5%	25	OF	Marcell Ozuna	679	608	11.7%	26	OF
Joey Votto	707	677	4.4%	33	1B	Brett Gardner	682	634	7.6%	33	OF
Anthony Rizzo	691	676	2.2%	27	1B	DJ LeMahieu	682	635	7.4%	28	2B
Brian Dozier	705	691	2.0%	30	2B	Khris Davis	652	610	6.9%	29	OF
Eric Hosmer	671	667	0.6%	27	1B	Adam Duvall	647	608	6.4%	28	OF
						Freddy Galvis	663	624	6.3%	27	SS
						Jose Ramirez	645	618	4.4%	24	2B/3B
						Jonathan Schoop	675	647	4.3%	25	2B
						Melky Cabrera	666	646	3.1%	32	OF
						Rougned Odor	651	632	3.0%	23	2B

While the sample's too small to draw conclusions, we can look at some trends then see if they hold true in the other seasons. There are seven middle infielders, seven outfielders and three corners. Ramirez was included with the second basemen, leaving third and catcher the only spots not represented.

With respect to age, there were seven players between 23 and 26, seven between 27 and 30 and only three older than 30. Let's see if things remain evenly distributed through the players' twenties before falling off for the 30-somethings.

2015-2016

Player 601-650 PA	2016	2015	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2016	2015	increase	AGE	POS
Mookie Betts	730	654	11.6%	23	OF	Edwin Encarnacion	702	624	12.5%	33	1B
Xander Bogaerts	719	654	9.9%	23	SS	Jason Kipnis	688	641	7.3%	29	2B
Kris Bryant	699	650	7.5%	24	3B	Ian Desmond	677	641	5.6%	30	SS/OF
Robinson Cano	715	674	6.1%	33	2B	Carlos Gonzalez	632	608	3.9%	30	OF
Nolan Arenado	696	665	4.7%	25	3B	Matt Kemp	672	648	3.7%	31	OF
Jose Altuve	717	689	4.1%	26	2B	Freddy Galvis	624	603	3.5%	26	SS
Jose Abreu	695	668	4.0%	29	1B	Adrian Beltre	640	619	3.4%	37	3B
Carlos Santana	688	666	3.3%	30	1B	Marcus Semien	621	601	3.3%	25	SS
Alcides Escobar	682	662	3.0%	29	SS	DJ LeMahieu	635	620	2.4%	27	2B
Adam Eaton	706	689	2.5%	27	OF	David Ortiz	626	614	2.0%	40	DH
Evan Longoria	685	670	2.2%	30	3B	Justin Upton	626	620	1.0%	28	OF
Nelson Cruz	667	655	1.8%	35	OF/DH
Paul Goldschmidt	705	695	1.4%	28	1B
Ian Kinsler	679	675	0.6%	34	2B

The positional breakdown has a lean towards the infield, with 10 middlemen and eight corners represented. There's six outfielders, plus Big Papi checking in as well.

Age-wise, the 27-30 group stepped it up with 11 while the 23-26 and 30-plus each had seven. It's too soon to call, but I want to keep an eye on the positions of the post-30 players. It looks like the trend could be power-hitting outfield and first basemen.

Galvis and LeMahieu are repeat inclusions. The actual players aren't relevant, but the fact that a second straight increase would rarely be projected is noteworthy.

2014-2015

Player 601-650 PA	2015	2014	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2015	2014	increase	AGE	POS
Kyle Seager	686	654	4.9%	27	3B	Anthony Rizzo	701	616	13.8%	25	1B
Curtis Granderson	682	654	4.3%	33	OF	Melky Cabrera	683	621	10.0%	30	OF
Todd Frazier	678	660	2.7%	29	3B	Jose Abreu	668	622	7.4%	28	1B
Josh Donaldson	711	695	2.3%	29	3B	Alcides Escobar	662	620	6.8%	28	SS
Robinson Cano	674	665	1.4%	32	2B	Andrew McCutchen	685	648	5.7%	28	OF
Carlos Santana	666	660	0.9%	29	1B	Charlie Blackmon	682	648	5.2%	28	OF
Dee Gordon	653	650	0.5%	27	2B	Yoenis Cespedes	676	645	4.8%	29	OF
						Brett Gardner	656	636	3.1%	31	OF
						Buster Posey	623	605	3.0%	28	C
						David Ortiz	614	602	2.0%	39	DH
						Jhonny Peralta	640	628	1.9%	33	SS
						Ben Revere	634	626	1.3%	27	OF
						Adrian Beltre	619	614	0.8%	36	3B

The 27-30 group again predominates with 12, perhaps providing the initial actionable item. However, there's still two precincts to be counted. The veterans matched the youngsters with four each.

Hey look, a catcher makes an appearance, with Posey doing the honors. Ortiz makes the cut again, leaving seven cornermen, four up the middle and seven fly-chasers. Other than catchers rarely seeing their playing time increase, it's beginning to look like there's no favorable position. That's useful information, nonetheless.

Aside from the now-retired designated hitter, Cano, Abreu, Santana, Escobar and Beltre all made the previous list while Rizzo, Blackmon, Gardner and Cabrera populated the initial group. I'm not sure what to make of this yet, other than it's possible to increase multiple times over a short stretch.

2013-2014

Player 601-650 PA	2014	2013	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2014	2013	increase	AGE	POS
Jose Altuve	707	672	5.2%	24	2B	Ian Kinsler	726	614	18.2%	32	2B
Miguel Cabrera	685	652	5.1%	31	1B	Brian Dozier	707	623	13.5%	27	2B
Josh Donaldson	695	668	4.0%	28	3B	Freddie Freeman	708	629	12.6%	24	1B
Hunter Pence	708	687	3.1%	31	OF	Matt Holliday	667	602	10.8%	34	OF
Nick Markakis	710	700	1.4%	30	OF	Michael Brantley	676	611	10.6%	27	OF
Evan Longoria	700	693	1.0%	28	3B	Todd Frazier	660	600	10.0%	28	3B
Denard Span	668	662	0.9%	30	OF	Austin Jackson	656	614	6.8%	27	OF
						Brett Gardner	636	609	4.4%	30	OF
						Adrian Gonzalez	660	641	3.0%	32	1B
						Carlos Santana	660	642	2.8%	28	1B
						David Ortiz	602	600	0.3%	38	DH

The 27-30 group has lengthened its lead, dropping 10 in this set, followed by six for the 30-plus clan, leaving just a pair for the 23-26 crowd. The combined totals for each will be provided at the end, but its certainly looking like players entering their age-27 through age-30 seasons are in the sweet spot for a playing time bump.

Middle Infielders only had three representatives with corners and outfielders both sporting seven, plus Ortiz. Based on Big Papi's durability as evidenced by this study, being bullish on Nelson Cruz is justified.

Other than backstops continuing to be conspicuous by their absence, there doesn't appear to be any trends, expect perhaps outfielder having a better chance once past the 30-year mark. With respect to catchers, keep in mind those receiving at least 600 plate appearances is a tiny subset, so there aren't many even eligible for the investigation.

Five batters also showed up the previous set, including Ortiz, Gardner, Frazier, Donaldson and Santana. Four others, Altuve, Longoria, Kinsler and Dozier were on an earlier list.

2012-2013

Player 601-650 PA	2013	2012	increase	AGE	POS	Player 601-650 PA	2013	2012	increase	AGE	POS
Kyle Seager	695	651	6.8%	25	3B	Dustin Pedroia	724	623	16.2%	29	2B
Adrian Beltre	690	654	5.5%	34	3B	Daniel Murphy	697	612	13.9%	28	2B
Ben Zobrist	698	668	4.5%	32	IF/OF	Mike Trout	716	639	12.1%	21	OF
Shin-Soo Choo	712	686	3.8%	30	OF	Jay Bruce	697	633	10.1%	26	OF
Prince Fielder	712	690	3.2%	29	1B	Alexei Ramirez	674	621	8.5%	31	SS
Starlin Castro	705	691	2.0%	23	2B	Brandon Phillips	666	623	6.9%	32	2B
Andrew McCutchen	674	673	0.1%	26	OF	Jose Altuve	672	630	6.7%	23	2B
						Carlos Santana	642	609	5.4%	27	1B
						Alex Rios	662	640	3.4%	32	OF
						Zack Cozart	618	600	3.0%	27	SS
						Justin Upton	643	628	2.4%	25	OF
						Alfonso Soriano	626	615	1.8%	37	OF
						Nick Swisher	634	624	1.6%	32	OF
						Freddie Freeman	629	620	1.5%	23	1B
						Michael Brantley	611	609	0.3%	26	OF

None other than Mike Trout is the only batter younger than 23 to crack the list, though this was his only appearance. It's not important for this season as he's coming off an injury, but it's interesting to note he hasn't garnered more plate appearances one year to the next since 2013. That can primarily be attributed to the Angels offense losing potency the last couple of seasons. They've added some pieces, so the lineup should turn over more times this season, hammering home the reliance on a strong offense for maximum plate appearances.

With Trout leading the way, the 21-26 band outnumbered the 27-30 bunch, nine to six. Seven tricenarians round out the last set of data.

Five corners, seven middles, nine outfielders and a Swiss Army knife complete the positional outlook. It's apparent catchers warrant their own study lowering the plate-appearance threshold.

Four hitters are repeaters from the last set, with Altuve and Santana making it for the second time. Freeman and Brantley are the first-timers. Four more popped up already: Seager, Beltre, McCutchen and Upton.

Let's look at everything together.

Age Range	Players
23 to 26	29
27 to 30	46
31 plus	27

Fantasy baseball is a game of probabilities. No one will get everything right, but those being correct more often than not usually have success over the long haul. Here, 46 of the 102 players included in the study fell between 27 and 30 years old. When doing your playing time, be the most aggressive with this group. This doesn't mean you can't show optimism elsewhere, but the percentage play is to focus on this level.

Position	Players
Catcher	1
Middle	31
Corner	30
Outfield	36
Utility	1
Designated hitter	3

Keep in mind there are four infield positions (two middle, two corner) with three in the outfield. As such, more infielders enjoyed a bump in playing time than outfielders. The reason may also have to do with managers deploying more platoons in the outfield than at other positions.

Speaking of the outfield, here's the number by position filling out the 31 years and older ranks.

Position	Players
Catcher	0
Middle	6
Corner	6
Outfield	11
Utility	1
Designated hitter	3

Again, playing the percentages, veteran outfielders are where to hang your aggressive playing time hat.

Here's the most surprising observation, at least to me. There are 52 repeat appearances among the 102 cases. That's fascinating. More than half of the batters seeing a playing time bump did so within the previous five seasons as well. Not only that, among the 52, there's only 23 unique names. Santana lead the way with four, followed by Beltre, Gardner, Ortiz and Gardner with three each. Of course, to threepeat, you need to start lower in the range, but still, it's impressive.

Earlier, it was mentioned catchers deserve their own treatment. Perusing the data, be aggressive with the bell cows, but understand only Posey (three times), Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy eclipsed the 600-plate appearance plateau. Only Posey has surpassed 500 each of the past five seasons, though to be fair, Perez missed it by one in 2017. Yadier Molina has broken the 500 barrier four times in the past five campaigns.

This is most apropos for Gary Sanchez. Some are extremely optimistic, expecting him to join the 600 club. He may, but that's too rich for my blood. That said, tempering expectation in the mid-500s still ranks him as a top-30 player overall.

The beauty of studies like this is everyone can interpret the data how they desire. I'm still projecting playing time on a player-by-player basis, but at the end, I see if it passes the sniff test with regards to adhering to the trends elucidated from this five-year study.