The Z Files: Panning For Late Round Pitching Gold

It's getting harder to unearth late pitching gems. Analysis helpful in identifying breakout candidates has moved from the underground to the mainstream. Still, it's necessary to hit on some late round or end game acquisitions to round out your fantasy staff. Here are 10 hurlers that were drafted in the 22nd round or later in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship Draft Champions league in which I'm a participant. For those not familiar with the contest, it's a 15-team mixed draft and hold format with 50 roster spots.

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (Round 22): There's a stigma with Brewers pitchers, as fantasy GMs are fearful of Miller Park. While it's true the venue is a home run haven, especially for lefty swingers, it plays just a tick above neutral with respect to runs. Good pitchers, particularly those that keep the ball on the ground, can have success there. Davies isn't an extreme groundball artist, but he induces significantly more worm burners than fly balls. His strikeout rate is below league average but so is his walk rate, which helps minimize damage when he does allow a big fly. Last season, he started 28 games, tossing 161.1 frames. The righty will be 24 years old on Opening Day, so he should have no issues ramping up past 180 innings. Davies' potential is capped by that pedestrian strikeout rate, but he should compensate in terms of volume, especially for your SP6 or SP7.

Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels (Round 25): Skaggs became a lot more interesting after the Halos acquired Danny Espinosa to pair with Andrelton Simmons, making a dynamite keystone combo. Skaggs missed the entire 2015 campaign rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He started 10 games last season, amassing a tempered 50.1 innings. His 4.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP may not be encouraging, nor is a 4.2 BB/9, but recording 9.1 K/9 while averaging 93 mph with his heater is certainly a reason for optimism. Like Davies, Skaggs isn't an extreme ground ball pitcher but he leans that way, hence the excitement with the Espinosa trade. Control is usually the slowest skill to come around after TJS, so hopefully with a regular offseason, Skaggs can get his walk rate back to normal levels. Finally, Angels Stadium is the best pitching park in the Junior Circuit.

Andrew Triggs, Oakland Athletics (Round 26): At 27 years old, Triggs is past prospect age. He was used exclusively as a reliever as a professional until last season when the Athletics stretched him out, giving him a half dozen second-half starts. As a reliever in the minors, he routinely sported double-digit whiff rates, and last year he registered a neat 8.8 K/9 in the bigs. That could dip with regular starting duties, but there's wiggle room to still be successful. He has always exhibited good control and last year was no exception, checking in with a tidy 2.1 BB/9. It's not a sure thing Triggs breaks camp as a starter, but if he does, he makes an intriguing streaming candidate with O.Co Coliseum at his back.

Matthew Strahm, Kansas City Royals (Round 27): This one's a personal favorite, as Strahm's peripherals are excellent – it's just a matter of him keeping it up for a whole season. Well, there's also the issue of winning a rotation spot, but it's not like the Royals have a ton of alternatives in front of him. Given that skills are usually about 17 percent better out of the bullpen, you must be intrigued by a 12.3 K/9 in 22 innings, albeit with a lofty 4.5 BB/9. Control is Strahm's bugaboo, though he was carrying a 2.03 BB/9 in 102.1 innings at Double-A Northwest Arkansas before being called up. If he has a strong spring with a lot of strikeouts, he'll pick up helium and rise up draft boards quickly.

Chris Devenski, Houston Astros (Round 28): Another man-crush, Devenski finished last season with a sparkling 2.16 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, mostly as a reliever. However, the 26-year-old righty picked up a handful of starts late in the season, so at minimum he'll be in the running for a rotation spot in 2017. However, with the acquisition of Charlie Morton, Devenski will likely start the season back in the bullpen, waiting for an injury or for Morton, Mike Fiers or Collin McHugh to trip up. Houston is in obvious go-for-it-mode, so it's understandable their preference is for veterans. That said, Devenski tossed 108.1 stanzas last season so even if he's coming out the bullpen, he's viable in deeper mixed leagues. He's not overly dominant, but misses enough bats to tote an above average strikeout rate with excellent control. Like Miller Park, Minute Maid Park is perceived to be a hitter's haven, but it in fact has been favoring pitchers lately.

Matt Bush, Texas Rangers (Round 28): After dealing with his well-publicized demons, the former first overall pick in 2004 (as a shortstop) finally made it to the Show as a fire-balling reliever. Bush hurled 61.2 innings, registering a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with an 8.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Dare it be said, that's closer worthy. Standing between him and saves are Sam Dyson, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Diekman and maybe Keone Kela. In other words, it's more quantity than quality. Of course, since they have intentions to compete for a championship, the club can always go get a veteran closer. But if they don't, they'll turn to the arm most likely to do the job, which very well could be Bush.

Matt Boyd, Detroit Tigers (Round 29): Boyd's chief Achilles' heel is the long ball, serving up 34 in just 154.2 major league innings. Last season's 1.6 HR/9 was poor, but not as abysmal as his 2.7 in 2015. There's no doubt, he needs to figure out how to keep the ball in the yard, even if the insides of the spherical horsehide aren't wound as tightly this season. His career 7.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 aren't special, but here's the kicker: after the break last season, they were 7.9 and 2.3. Normally, I don't put any extra emphasis on splits, but we're looking for a breakout candidate, not projecting Boyd to maintain those gains. For what it's worth, his underlying metrics supported the better numbers down the stretch. As DFS grinders may recall, he was an enigma in September, alternating gems and stinkers.

Luis Perdomo, San Diego (Round 32): DFS players just threw up in their mouths a little bit. Perdomo was terrible through the All-Star break, before having a respectable second half. In fact, after being the victim of DFS stacks for most of the season, he was a viable GPP option in September. He won't turn 24 until May, meaning there's plenty of time for him to continue to mature. Most notable is an extreme groundball rate and a swing-and-miss cutter than can develop into a strikeout pitch if he can hone his secondary stuff. Presently, he's best used for home starts, since a low strikeout rate limits fantasy potential, but where he's available you could do worse as a flier. Before the Padres signed Jhoulys Chacin, Perdomo may have been the Friars' Opening Day starter, and he still may be.

Ariel Miranda, Seattle Mariners (Round 35): Pressed into action late last season, Miranda pitched well enough to earn a spring audition for the Mariners' Opening Day rotation. Beware, his 3.88 ERA was largely a result of a 0.222 BABIP, as evidenced by a 5.25 FIP and 5.06 xFIP. Further, his strikeout potential is pedestrian. Why the attraction? We're talking Round 35 here and at minimum, Miranda can be a fill-in starter for home starts in Safeco Field. He's also in play for American League only.

Jacob Barnes, Milwaukee Brewers (Round 44): Let's wrap things up with another speculative saves play. Once Tyler Thornburg was shipped to Beantown, the Brewers bullpen opened up. Corey Knebel is the popular choice for closer, with Carlos Torres the dark horse. However, don't sleep on Barnes, who quietly twirled 26.2 innings down the stretch, finishing with a nice 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, fanning 26 with only six free passes. He averages 95 mph on his fastball. Throughout his minor career and his major league stint last season, the righty has also done a good job keeping the ball in the yard. It's a long season, and relievers with far worse credentials have slid into ninth inning duties.