The Z Files: Early Season Hitting Disappointments

As I've alluded to in the various content I generate for this site, I update my personal projections each week. With respect to hitters (today's focus) the factors accounted for are:

1. New skill level
2. Playing time
3. Team context

The first I've discussed a lot the past few weeks. I regress each hitter's year-to-date skills to my original expectation using a non-linear weighted average. I trust the level of some current skills more than others, so these pull more of what's happened.

The obvious playing time adjustments are those related to performance, good or bad. However, playing time and team context overlap a bit as some of the expected playing time revolves around the team's offense. Some clubs aren't performing as well as I initially anticipated, costing the hitter's some trips to the dish. In addition, runs and RBI may be adjusted for players on teams pacing to score more or fewer runs than projected.

What follows are 15 players dropping the most in terms of projected earnings for 15-team mixed leagues. Not included are those still injured, costing them playing time. The rest-of-season (ROS) earnings are prorated as if the season started today so they can be compared to my initial (INI) seasonal earning. The batters are listed from lowest ROS projection to highest.

Leonys Martin, Seattle Mariners (ROS $-31, INI $0): The zero prospective earnings suggest Martin was more a reserve than a lineup mainstay in mixed leagues. However, it's understandable if some were hoping for more based on the Mariners professing to ramp up their running game. A slow start resulted in Martin being placed on waivers, which he cleared, so he was removed from the 40-man roster and sent to Triple-A Tacoma. Thus far on the farm, the 29-year old outfielder isn't doing much to get back in the team's good graces, sporting a .785 OPS with just one swipe. With the emergence of Ben Gamel and the impending return of Mitch Haniger, we may have seen the last of Martin with the Mariners.

Paulo Orlando, Kansas City Royals (ROS $-24, INI $-4): Orlando wasn't mixed-league worthy, but he was drafted in American League only formats. He had a path to playing time with Jorge Soler sidelined, and Orlando received a lot of early action. After a couple weeks of futility, he was sent to Triple-A Omaha where he continues to scuffle.

Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals (ROS $-12, INI $3): Staying in Kansas City, those hoping last season was a blip for Gordon have been disappointed. That said, there's a glimmer of hope as his contact rate is back to pre-2016 levels. Unfortunately, his hard contact is well below average, along with a career high level of grounders. This combination leads to a low batting average on balls on play as well as a paucity of power. I understood taking a chance on Gordon as a fifth outfielder in the spring, but it's time to give up the dream.

Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals (ROS $-12, INI $5): Hey, two more and we have a Royals flush. If you own Escobar, it's strictly for steals and runs. To date, he and I have the same number of pilfers. Trust me, the rest of the list is more interesting.

C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels (ROS $-12, INI $11): Coming into the campaign, Cron was a popular pick to take his game to the next level. Granted, Cron lost a chunk of time due to injury, but as explained, this is a forward-looking rank and he's currently healthy. The drop is due to the presence of Jefry Marte along with Albert Pujols producing runs despite a low average. Cron has as many homers as Escobar does steals. His contact is down and his already low walk rate is even lower. Chances are, you already found a replacement for Cron and are deciding to drop him now that he's off the disabled list. My approach is I don't want to categorically drop him, but if I need to fill another position, I won't hesitate to let him go.

Curtis Granderson, New York Mets (ROS $-9, INI $7): The emergence of Michael Conforto has dropped Granderson from the leadoff spot to the lower half of the order, costing him several at-bats. Not just that, Granderson's hard contact and line drive rate have plummeted. Chances are, they'll rebound but not enough for Granderson to reclaim his leadoff gig. Despite a .520 OPS, Granderson is still playing, but once Yoenis Cespedes returns, that will change.

Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics (ROS $-4, INI $11): Do you know how close we were to having a slew of October babies named Rajai? Now we're looking at a guy hitting .214 with just four steals in seven attempts. Davis is fanning less and walking more than last season, which should be a plus for a speedster. His batted ball profile is in sync with career marks. At some point, the grounders will find holes and Davis will be off to the races. If you're lagging in steals, Davis is a buy-low candidate.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays (ROS $0, INI $12): The good news is Kiermaier's glove keeps him in the lineup. Though, that could also be bad news if he doesn't pick up his average. Kiermaier's counting stats are still in line with what most expected. I say most since I was high on the Gold Glover in the spring. His issue has been contact, which has been better lately. Kiermaier will fall short of my expectations, but he should be serviceable in mixed leagues for the rest of the season.

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (ROS $6, INI $15): With a 1.183 OPS the last week, Bautista is finally rewarding those waiting for the power. Keeping in mind the ROS earnings don't include what's done, that's still a significant drop from what was expected. Some of that is team context as even when Josh Donaldson returns, the Jays will probably fall short of my preseason prognostication. As mentioned, this drops at-bats as well as run production. Still, Bautista is still capable to leaving the yard so he's on my buy-low radar. In fact, I dealt Madison Bumgarner for Bautista in Mixed LABR, a deal I labeled Bike Flip for Bat Flip.

Eduardo Nunez, San Francisco Giants (ROS $10, INI $20): The scuttlebutt is Nunez has been pushed to a utility role as Christian Arroyo is holding his own at both third and shortstop. Truth be told, since Nunez is still playing every day, it's unclear what will happen when everyone is healthy in San Francisco. That said, the chances of that occurring are slim so this appears to be more a change of position that a shift to a utility-type role. Still, I cut some playing time off the ROS projection. Plus, Nunez isn't hitting as high in the order, costing some production. Through all this, Nunez has swiped 11 bags, with his only failed attempt being called out on an over-slide. Despite hitting his first homer yesterday, last season's power surge looks like it will be squashed by AT&T Park, no surprise these. Obviously, you're still playing him. Hopefully, you weren't realistically counting on more than high single digit homers.

Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (ROS $10, INI $19): Many felt Bregman was on the verge of fantasy stardom after ending 2016 on a huge upswing. However, not everyone was on board, notably former Tout Wars member-turned scout-turned Mariners front office member-turned Fangraphs contributor Tony Blengino, as discussed here. Thus far, Blengino has proved prescient as Bregman's line drive rate has fallen while his infield pops remain extremely high. Barely 23, Bregman has plenty of time to figure things out. It just doesn't appear this is the year, so if there's someone in your league that hasn't read the Fangraphs piece and is expecting a huge rebound, look to sell.

Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners (ROS $12, INI $20): Admittedly, much of this drop is due to an optimistic outlook heading into the season, especially in batting average. Truth be told, Seager's fine. All the underlying metrics are right in line with expectations. His home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) is low. If I had to pick one player that won't be on this list in a month, it would be Seager.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (ROS $12, INI $21): Like Seager, most of Gonzalez's skills are fine, save HR/FB. Some of the difference between original and current expectations is an injury hedge. Baking in missing two weeks or so over 162 games has less of an effect than over 120 games. To be fair, Gonzalez has played at least 150 games for two straight seasons, but it's still wise to plan on something in the 140s. At some point, I'll tack on a few extra at-bats, just not yet.

Jonathan Lucroy, Texas Rangers (ROS $17, INI $21): It's still too early to call Lucroy my biggest miss, but he has work to do to finish the season as the top fantasy catcher. I thought the situation was ideal: good lineup, good hitting park and the ability to play some designated hitter. His .272 average is fine. But two homers with seven runs and seven RBI? That's a weekend for some hitters this year. Easier said than done, but if Lucroy's owner is looking to cut bait, I'm in.

Edwin Encarnacion, Cleveland Indians (ROS $20, INI $28): The last hitter isn't much a surprise if you followed my writing the past few weeks. The metric pulling things down the most early on is contact, which is where Encarnacion is suffering. Lately, he's cut down on the strikeouts, the hits just aren't falling. By season's end, you'll get your 30-something long balls, but I'm skeptical he'll hit .250 the rest of the way.