The Wheelhouse: Utilizing Barrel Rate

Baseball's statistical revolution has been taking place for more than a decade. We have more information than ever, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have perfected the art of properly utilizing it. Paralysis by analysis is a concern.

Like many of you, I spend a significant portion of my time combing through player pages at RotoWire, FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and more recently, Baseball Savant (baseballsavant.mlb.com), which has been my gateway into the latest development of publicly available data from MLB's Statcast system.

My assertion is that the best thing about Statcast is the system's ability to shed light on aspects of the game that were once dependent upon the inconsistent human eye for evaluation. Quantifying previously unquantifiable pieces of the scouting report – a "nasty breaking ball" for a pitcher, or a hitter who "often squares up" pitches – can help major league teams, and fantasy players, find surprising sources of value in the talent evaluation and roster construction process.

MLBAM has been running Statcast at all 30 parks since the start of the 2015 season. While big league teams are understandably quiet about how they have gone about utilizing the data, there are a few metrics that appear to be worth adding to the tool box, but one in particular looks like a necessity when evaluating hitters: Barreled Balls.

As defined by MLB...

Created by Tom Tango, the Barreled Ball classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have historically led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.

In short, hitting the ball hard with the proper range of launch angle will generate excellent results. It makes sense, as hitting a ball very hard but too high will usually result in a flyout, while hitting a ball very hard on the ground is unlikely to become more than a double, and those hits can often become groundouts.

Fortunately, we have leaderboards from each of the past two seasons that can show us barrels per batted ball event (Brls/BBE). Using a barrel rate metric instead of a raw count, we may be able to spot players with smaller quantities of playing time capable of significant production with an increased role in the future. It is particularly helpful to view this data through the lens of barrels per plate appearance.

Note: The data utilized in the tables for this article is from the 2016 season.

The Top 10

If this article had been written after the 2015 campaign, Giancarlo Stanton would have been the runaway leader in Brls/PA with a 16.0 percent mark. J.D. Martinez was second at 11.6 percent. Even with another injury-marred season (rib, hip and groin ailments slowed him at various points), Stanton still finished in the top 10 in 2016. It's easy to see why owners annually look past his injury history in the early rounds on draft day.

Ryan Howard's appearance on the list isn't entirely surprising given his skill set, though David Wright's is. There are two particularly interesting names on the list above – Gary Sanchez and Byungho Park.

Sanchez tore the cover the off the ball for 53 games after the Yankees promoted him last summer, hitting .299/.376/.657 with 20 homers (32 extra-base hits) over 229 plate appearances. While there is clear regression coming in the form of a more normal HR/FB% (40.0 percent in 2016!), Sanchez's high barrel rate is very encouraging, especially when you consider that the lowest HR/FB% for any of the players on the list last season was 17.5 percent (Wright). In early drafts, Sanchez has been taken off the board within the first 40 picks on multiple occasions.

For those in deeper leagues, Park is more intriguing than Sanchez because the acquisition cost is minimal (he was taken with the 432nd overall pick in the mock draft for this publication). The high strikeout rate is a concern, but it's in the realm of what Chris Davis or Chris Carter will do in a typical season. Moreover, Park was a first-year player making the adjustment to MLB and life in America, and improvement in Year 2 isn't out of the question. Cheap power is valuable, even if it comes with a .220-.230 batting average.

The Next 10

With Carter popping up on this section of the leaderboard, it becomes easier to see the path for Park to emerge as a viable corner-infield piece in 2017.

Nick Castellanos' presence among the league leaders in this category is noteworthy for a few reasons. First, his overall counting stats took a hit as a result of time lost with a fractured hand during the second half. Additionally, his power surge in 2016 was not accompanied by an increase in strikeouts. Finally, he's unlikely to go before Pick 150 despite his potential as a four-category contributor.

Evan Longoria's resurgence in the power department last season merits further exploration – it's unusual to see a player hit a career-high 36 homers as a 30-year-old after he delivered a total of 43 long balls in his previous two seasons combined. His draft day cost will likely jump 30-50 picks from his 2016 average draft position (119.83).

J.D. Martinez missed time last season after fracturing his elbow in a collision with the outfield wall. Despite the lost time, he's still among the league's best in barrel rate, and as noted above, he was second only to Giancarlo Stanton on the 2015 leaderboard. Even if the discount on Martinez is slight this spring, he should still be drafted as a 35-homer threat, and one capable of being an asset in the batting average department (.299 from 2014-2016).

Trevor Story's high strikeout rate prompted many owners to try and sell-high on the young shortstop after a blistering start to his rookie campaign. He showed signs of improvement as the season progressed, lowering his K% from 36.3 percent and 32.2 percent in April and May, respectively, to 27.7 percent and 28.6 percent in June and July. Further complicating matters in evaluating Story for 2017 is that his season ended with a torn UCL in his thumb, an injury that required season-ending surgery in early August. As evidenced by his high barrel rate, Story made high quality contact at a very good clip, which is even more beneficial with half of his games coming at Coors Field. The drawback in investing for Year 2 is that Story is already fetching a top-40 overall pick in early drafts based on NFBC ADP.

Pedro Alvarez slugged .500 for the first time as a big league player in 2016, but he's always shown a propensity for driving the ball when he makes contact. The real-life value of a defensively limited power-heavy skill set is low in the current landscape, but Alvarez has enough raw power to hit 25-30 homers regardless of his home park, and he can do that even if he's limited to the large side of a platoon for a new American League team in 2017.

Tommy Joseph went unclaimed when the Phillies outrighted him from the 40-man roster during the 2015 offseason, as multiple concussions cost him significant development time as a prospect and ultimately prompted a move from catcher to first base. He tore the cover off the ball as a 24-year-old in the International League before forcing his way onto the roster for the rebuilding Phillies, and Joseph proceeded to become one of the top in-season pickups of 2016. Once the centerpiece of the trade that sent Hunter Pence to San Francisco, Joseph's scouting report as a hitter included the phrase "plus-power to all fields," and that pop was apparent in his first opportunity as a regular last season. In addition to injury risk, Joseph will need to fend off top prospect Rhys Hoskins as the 2017 season progresses, but an improved approach in the second half is encouraging enough to consider Joseph as a cheap source of power on draft day.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can pre-order a copy here.