The Wheelhouse: Building Around Kershaw

This time of year, we begin the process of determining our preferred draft positions in earnest. For traditional snake draft leagues, a Kentucky Derby System (KDS) method of choosing each draft position following a random draw is the best way to allow a greater number of owners to control an otherwise luck-of-the-draw process.

The FSTA draft is the first redraft league in the industry each year, held in January during the winter conference. My role in the event has fluctuated in recent years – co-hosting the draft on SXM Fantasy Sports Radio some years, "co-managing" a team with Chris Liss, and most recently, taking my own seat at the table in Nashville on Monday night.

As rotisserie leagues go, this one is a pretty standard 5x5 with the main twist being that it's a 13-team mixed league.

Although I did not choose my own draft slot (Jeff Erickson did, before we switched spots between the broadcast team and draft table), the seventh pick would have been fairly high on my list this year.

From that position, one of Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Clayton Kershaw, or Paul Goldschmidt will be there in Round 1.

Knowing that this particular room is historically less aggressive with drafting pitching than most – especially when comparing FSTA results to the NFBC Main Event drafts each year – I had a strong feeling that Kershaw was the player most likely to be there from the aforementioned septet.

If it weren't for a herniated disc that cost Kershaw more than two months of the 2016 season, there might be a greater number of owners willing to take the plunge even earlier than the middle of Round 1. Even with that ailment on the ledger, his range in early NFBC drafts has been Picks 2-10.

Still, as my extremely scientific poll Monday morning revealed, there are still skeptics where I took Kershaw.

[POLL] I've got the seventh overall pick in the #FSTA Draft tonight. If he's there, would you take Kershaw?

— Derek VanRiper (@DerekVanRiper) January 23, 2017

The roster construction process changes considerably when a pitcher is your first pick, but Kershaw's potential to deliver historically elite ratios over a high volume of innings affords his owner an opportunity to wait several rounds before building the rest of the pitching staff. Additionally, there are other ways to fortify Kershaw's contributions while addressing other pitching categories in the early rounds by targeting elite closers, a strategy I chose to employ by combining Kenley Jansen (Round 5) with Zach Britton (Round 7)

This strategy makes it possible to wait even longer on starting pitching depth, removes the burden of chasing risky relievers in the middle and late rounds, and prevents owners from falling into the FAAB rat race during the season.

As an example, consider that the 2016 overall NFBC Champion Rob Silver had a contest-best 1.102 WHIP. The top overall ERA was 3.182. That's a contest made up of 15-team leagues, while the RotoWire Online Championship is a 12-teamer in which I led my league in ERA and WHIP at 3.142 and 1.139 (second place was 3.407 and 1.179).

Let's set the bar high and aim for that 3.182 ERA and Rob's 1.102 WHIP.

If Kershaw, Jansen, and Britton reach their RotoWire projections, I will have a 2.111 ERA and a 0.868 WHIP over 341 innings. With six remaining pitching spots, I need to pile up 1,418 innings to reach my Main Event total from 2016. That leaves 1,077 innings to be filled with those six roster spots.

Working backward, we can determine that my three pitchers are projected to allow a combined 80 runs. My target ERA, based on 1,418 innings, allows 500 earned runs. I've got 420 earned runs left to allow in 1,077 innings (1,418 less than the 341 on my roster so far).

With that, we can calculate the need to pick up a 3.51 ERA over those final six pitcher spots. Here's how I filled in the staff, waiting until Round 10 to grab my second starter:

Zack Greinke
Rich Hill
Matt Shoemaker
Eduardo Rodriguez
Hector Neris
Junior Guerra
Zach Davies*
Ervin Santana*
Jeremy Hellickson*
* = reserves

The RotoWire Draft Software calculated my projected ERA (without accounting for lineup changes) at 3.203 with a WHIP of 1.118. With weekly lineup changes, there will be opportunities to work around some of the difficult matchups, particularly with the three reserve starters.

Overall, it was easy to find arms I liked as fillers, from Shoemaker through Davies. Santana and Hellickson are two arms that look a little worse at a glance than they actually are, and I anticipate that injuries and ineffectiveness will lead to waiver-wire shuffling throughout the year given the modest size of the league.

The full results of the draft can be viewed here: rtsports.com/siriusxm.

Here's a round-by-round look at how things went down:

1.7 – Clayton Kershaw – I've got him at No. 6 overall on my current Top 350. Coincidentally, I received the seventh overall pick in a 12-team slow mock draft that began earlier this week, so another opportunity for this exercise is in progress.

You can follow that mock draft with commentary here: https://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/411-expert-mock-draft-results-commentary-d1abfbb0da97#.ugxhuuyjb

The draft grid is here (keep in mind, this is a very slow draft, with picks generally taking much longer on weekends): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MlrbVnWlKxTC93fg9niKBhfVpheTMq2qdgrusRW4O8g/edit#gid=0

Alternative Considered with this pick: Manny Machado

2.7 – Trea Turner – Strangely enough, I am slightly lower than the masses on Turner coming off his impressive rookie campaign. It's all relative, however, as he's not a player I would currently take at the Round 1-2 turn (Pick 15-Pick 16 or earlier), but a few picks later than that, I'm comfortable taking him. The floor for Turner's value comes with his ability to pile up steals (33-for-39 in 73 games with the Nats), score a lot of runs, and hit for a good average (his average will slide a bit as the .391 BABIP he posted in 2016 falls to a more sustainable level). The question is power, 13 homers after his July callup tripled his season total (six) accumulated in 83 games at Syracuse. My expectation is that Turner will hit .290-.300, steal 50 bases, score 100-plus runs, and drive in at least 50 more. If he does that and only hits eight or 10 homers, Turner will be well worth a mid-second-round pick. One last reason to be concerned about Turner's power falling off comes from CTM Baseball's Matt Modica, who recently shared the list of pitchers Turner homered off of during the big leagues:

Z.Godley, Samardzija, R.Whalen, T.Jenkins, C.Betts, https://t.co/48VQLuTwdP, C.Murray, F.Hermann, J.Gant, J.Collmenter (2), A.Brice, WY Chen

— Matt Modica (@ctmbaseball) January 28, 2017

Alternative Considered with this pick: Edwin Encarnacion

3.7 – Giancarlo Stanton – With a three-year average of 112 games played, Stanton is no longer considered a top-25 player. He suffered an injury to his right side in late May and his production plummeted while his strikeout rate soared in the weeks after. Overall, Stanton finished with plate discipline numbers that were nearly identical to 2015, and he was still tied for eighth in barrel rate after leading the league in that category by a wide margin in 2015. A full-season floor should yield production similar to Nelson Cruz, while Stanton's raw power still makes him a threat to hit 50 homers if he can finally shake the injury bug.

Alternative Considered with this pick: J.D. Martinez

I thought there was a greater chance of Martinez making it back to me in Round 4 than there was for Stanton to fall that much. Martinez went two picks before my turn at No. 46 overall (44th to Ray Flowers).

4.7 – Kyle Seager – Everything seemed to come together for Seager last season, but Safeco Field's home-run park index jumped last season and it may be a sign of things to come. Beyond that, the Seattle lineup is strong at the core, which should allow Seager to deliver 165-170 runs scored and RBI to go along with 25-30 HR and a solid average (career .266 hitter).

Alternative Considered with this pick: Yoenis Cespedes

5.7 – Kenley Jansen – I've got Jansen slightly ahead of Aroldis Chapman with the potential for Dellin Betances to take away a handful of Chapman's save chances following his return to the Yankees this offseason.

Alternative Considered with this pick: Ian Kinsler

6.7 – Kyle Schwarber – Maybe I'm off my hinges, but I think Schwarber can hit .280-.290 with limited exposure to lefties, while threatening 30 homers and a boatload of runs and RBI in a strong Cubs lineup. I took him in this spot without an expectation that he will earn catcher eligibility in season.

Alternative Considered with this pick: Hanley Ramirez

7.7 – Zach Britton – After joking about looking stupid if the other top closers fell two rounds after Jansen, I took the liberty of making a strategy out of it. The construction of this team might be more viable in auction settings than in drafts, depending on your position in the draft order and how aggressive your league mates are in the pursuit of saves.

8.7 – Stephen Piscotty – Pulling the ball more frequently, Piscotty generated added pop last season and surged to 22 homers in 153 games. He still hit for a steady .273 average, and managed to control the strike zone just as effectively as he did in his 2015 debut (7.9% BB%, 20.5% K% in 2016).

9.7 – Lorenzo Cain – Cain brings plenty of health risk, but he posted back-to-back seasons with 28 steals in 2014 and 2015. He's more likely to hit eight homers than 18, but the potential return of his stolen-base contributions and the fact that he's hit .287 or better in each of the last three seasons make him a good fit with the offensive foundation I put together in the first eight rounds.

10.7 – Zack Greinke – Nobody expected Greinke to repeat his ridiculous 2015 ratios with a move to the desert. To make matters worse than simply having to pitch half of his games at Chase Field, Greinke got hurt and wasn't the same after he hit the DL in July and posted a 6.02 ERA the rest of the way, despite a passable 3.62 mark before that point.

11.7 – Justin Turner – Turner was struggling early in 2016 following offseason microfracture surgery on his knee, carrying a .235/.335/.343 line at the end of May. He hit .292/.341/.556 with 24 homers and 74 RBI in his final 101 games, finishing with an OPS above .800 for the third consecutive season.

12.7 – Rich Hill – Don't expect more than 150 innings from Hill, but the per-start potential he showed last season actually looks sustainable thanks to his excellent curveball. Opposing hitters hit .180 and slugged .243 against that pitch last season, and he ranked sixth in MLB in K% (min. 100 IP), slightly ahead of Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, and Madison Bumgarner.

13.7 – Carlos Santana – The replacement of Mike Napoli with Edwin Encarnacion and the potential return of Michael Brantley to the Cleveland lineup stabilizes Santana's value even if he gives back 10 of the career-high 34 homers he swatted last season. The Steamer projection may be too optimistic: .254/.372/.459, 26 HR, 92 R, 79 RBI, 6 SB, but he could return to the low .230s with his average and still be profitable from this slot if his counting stats across the board approach Steamer's line.

14.7 – Aledmys Diaz – The Cards' infield is crowded, but Kolten Wong and Jhonny Peralta seem more likely to get squeezed for playing time than Diaz.

15.7 – Ender Inciarte – Inciarte is a career .292 hitter, which helps offset the risk with Stanton and Santana in tow, while a complete healthy season could lead to 20-25 steals and 90-100 runs scored.

16.7 – Stephen Vogt – Waiting on catchers in a two-catcher league can be risky. Fortunately, Vogt should remain a fixture in the heart of the order for Oakland against righties, and regular DH duty reduces some of the injury risk, even if his skills are eroding.

17.7 – Matt Shoemaker – A slow start in April makes his overall ratios (3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) look mediocre, but he appeared to figure things out last season with a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go with a 127:20 K:BB over his final 22 starts. Shoemaker appears to be OK after his season was cut short following a line drive to the head in September.

18.7 – Starlin Castro – A move out of Wrigley and in to Yankee Stadium vaulted Castro to a career-high 21 homers last season. Double-digit steals haven't happened since 2012, but he's a career .280 hitter with a .265 floor and an everyday job in a hitter-friendly home park.

19.7 – Cameron Rupp – If the exit velocity numbers are any indication, Rupp's pop is legitimate. He'll likely hit higher in the order than he should for the rebuilding Phillies, although it's possible that Jorge Alfaro will be ready to push him for playing time by season's end.

20.7 – Eduardo Rodriguez – Once Rodriguez stopped tipping pitches (he made an adjustment after getting sent to Pawtucket in late June), he flourished. He posted a 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 79:28 K:BB over his final 14 starts upon returning to Boston (77.2 innings). Assuming that he's fully healthy following offseason knee surgery, Rodriguez has the talent to become a top-25 starting pitcher in 2017.

21.7 – Michael Conforto – I took him ahead of Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, in part because I think low-average, high power veterans are easy to obtain via trade (or even the waiver wire) in a league this size. Conforto still has a career OPS above .800 against right-headed pitching. Whether he's traded, the Mets find a taker for Bruce, or Lucas Duda's lack of health makes playing first base a reality, Conforto is an easy late-round target to part ways with in April or May if the situation doesn't improve between now and then.

22.7 – Melky Cabrera – With a three-year average of 14 homers, 78 RBI, 73 runs, and a .289/.334/.431 line, Cabrera is a boring filler type capable of providing steady value when one of the more talented outfielders on my roster hits the DL with an injury.

23.7 – Hector Neris – The Phillies insist they will have an open competition for the ninth-inning role this spring. Even if Neris doesn't win it, he could be useful as a multi-inning reliever when I can't find a streamable starter for my last roster spot. If he closes, even for part of the season, I'll have a temporary third closer capable of helping me take all 13 closer points.

24.7 – Junior Guerra – I'm banking on a one-run increase in his ERA, but Guerra may actually be decent. My greatest concern is that his margin for error is small, particularly pitching half of his games at Miller Park, if he continues to walk batters at a 3.2 BB/9 clip. If he's unable to maintain the value of a mid-rotation starter, he's an easy drop at this price.

25.7 – Travis Shaw – As 2016 began, there wasn't much to separate Shaw from Jake Lamb. Of course, Lamb continued to rake throughout the year and there are several tiers between them now, but Shaw's inclusion in the package Milwaukee received for Tyler Thornburg addresses a short-term need at third base. Moreover, he'll get a huge boost as a left-handed home-run hitter going from Fenway Park to Miller Park. Finally, Shaw has flashed the ability to be occasionally sneaky on the basepaths (five steals in six attempts in 2016), and he'll now play for one of the most aggressive managers in Craig Counsell.

26.7 – Zach Davies – Two Brewers starters as rotating options on the bottom of a mixed league roster may not work. Davies' calling card is his control, but he mixes four pitches well and should have occasional utility. Most likely, he'll be among the first three players removed from my roster when streaming opportunities arise in the early weeks of the season.

27.7 – Ervin Santana – While FIP (3.81) doesn't buy Santana's 3.38 ERA, he's another useful, matchup-dependent piece with passable skills. Like Davies and Guerra, Santana may be one of my early-season drops.

28.7 – Jeremy Hellickson – A near skills clone of Davies, Hellickson accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Phillies for another year. Expect adjustments.

29.7 – Alex Dickerson – Dickerson is part of the reason I passed on Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson when I took Conforto. A potential starter in left field for San Diego, he hit 20 homers between Triple-A El Paso and the big leagues last season, while maintaining a 15.4% K% against MLB pitching. The raw power is very intriguing, and on full display here.

Final Roster

C: Stephen Vogt
C: Cameron Rupp
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Trea Turner
3B: Kyle Seager
SS: Aledmys Diaz
MI: Starlin Castro
CI: Justin Turner
OF: Giancarlo Stanton
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Stephen Piscotty
OF: Lorenzo Cain
OF: Ender Inciarte
UT: Michael Conforto
R: Melky Cabrera
R: Travis Shaw
R: Alex Dickerson

P: Clayton Kershaw
P: Kenley Jansen
P: Zach Britton
P: Zack Greinke
P: Rich Hill
P: Matt Shoemaker
P: Eduardo Rodriguez
P: Hector Neris
P: Junior Guerra
R: Zach Davies
R: Ervin Santana
R: Jeremy Hellickson