This article is part of our Sorare MLB series.
The 2024 MLB regular season is all but over. I've been delivering upgrades, holds and downgrades for your Sorare lineups to help you navigate this season. What now? Well, how about looking ahead. To close out the 2024 MLB regular season, I want to look ahead to the 2025 MLB season. Who are the guys who underperformed or overperformed to such a degree that I strongly believe next year will be different? What post-hype sleepers are out there? What injured guys have you maybe forgotten about? Allow me to get to it!
The number in parentheses is each player's last limited card sale price as of 9/25.
Upgrades
Marcus Semien, TEX ($5.82): The first place I looked in search of upgrades for next season was BABIP. While the general rule of thumb is that hitters gravitate toward a .300 BABIP, in practice there is more room for fluctuation due to things like, say, running speed. Still, guys with particularly low BABIPs are likely to see a bounce back. The lowest BABIP actually belongs to Anthony Santander, a slow-footed masher who had a career-best season at the plate. Semien is a different story. He has a .249 BABIP and will finish in the bottom six on that front. His career number is .283, though, and his lowest BABIP in a season prior to 2024 was .260. Semien dropped a few homers this year as well, but where his numbers were really hit was the doubles category. With more reasonable batting luck, he'll cruise by 30 doubles again and bring you more Sorare points than almost any second baseman.
Nick Castellanos, PHI ($6.62): Because the Phillies have a loaded lineup, there wasn't a ton of handwringing about Castellanos' numbers dipping a bit from 2023. There was some, though, because his occasional days with 20-plus Sorare points were mixed in with plenty where he produced zero (or very few) points. Fret not! Line drives turn into hits more than grounders or flyballs. Castellanos posted a line-drive percentage of 23.4, on par with Aaron Judge and Marcell Ozuna. He had a .289 BABIP, but Castellanos' career BABIP is .327. The guy is a longtime line-drive machine. Next year, more Sorare points should arrive.
Taylor Ward, LAA ($3.38): Ward doesn't walk a ton, and he strikes out a decent amount, so he may not scream "disciplined hitter." However, his 23.4-percent chase rate is top 10 in MLB. Also, only 32.6 percent of his hits have been grounders. Ward has a lot of games in the 5-10 Sorare points range, but maybe he can tick that up a bit. With a smidge more discipline and luck, Ward could be a 30-homer bat in 2025.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI ($3.19): Four pitchers are going to finish the season with an ERA more than one run above their xFIP. Now, Patrick Corbin and Miles Mikolas are known quantities and flawed pitchers. The former can't get righties out to save his life, and the latter is maybe the most hittable pitcher there is. Then there's Pfaadt. His sophomore season was better than his rookie campaign, but he has a 4.80 ERA in 31 starts. Then there's his 3.68 xFIP, which is not great but is markedly better. Crucially, Pfaadt is 25 years old. A modest improvement would be expected for anyone his age, but we could see a big improvement for him in 2025. He has two games with over 30.0 Sorare points in September, and there should be more of those next season.
Holds
Dylan Cease, SD ($16.98): Though he moved from the White Sox to the Padres (good career move), Cease was, you know, still Cease. He struck out over 10 batters per nine innings and allowed under one home run per nine innings. When he's keeping the ball in the park and racking up those Ks, it can yield big Sorare days. In July, he had three starts in a row with over 40.0 Sorare points. Plus, what we saw was truly what we got. Cease had a 3.42 ERA and a 3.36 xFIP. I see no cause for skepticism, but he's established enough I see no further leap coming either.
Oneil Cruz, PIT ($6.53): It started with me being curious about who ripped the cover off the ball this season. Then I saw Cruz's name, and realized he was a fine choice for a holds. His strengths are so clear, but so are his weaknesses. The shortstop had a 20/20 season, and had plenty of good days in terms of Sorare points. He also had plenty of days with negative points in part because he's going to finish in the bottom 10 in strikeouts. Cruz's chase rate actually increased a smidge to 33.4 percent, but that's still over one-third. On the other hand, 10 percent of his plate appearances have been barrels. He hits the ball so hard and whiffs at pitches so much. That mix adds up to a hold for me.
Downgrades
Brent Rooker, OAK ($8.12): Last year, Rooker came out of nowhere in his age-28 season to hit 30 home runs for the Athletics. Instead of regression, we got a season that has seen the slugger hit 38 homers and top 100 RBI for the first time. His average is even up to .296. Well, this time regression feels inevitable. Rooker has a .361 BABIP, one of the highest numbers in MLB and a major increase on his .317 BABIP in 2023. His flyball rate actually went down, and his strikeout rate went down even though his chase rate went up. I do believe Rooker has a lot of power in his stroke. I also believe he'll be more hit-or-miss in 2025, which means more lackluster Sorare-point days.
Ronel Blanco, HOU ($7.17): I feel like this is a true full-circle moment. Blanco threw an unexpected no-hitter early in 2024 which led to a lot of talk about what, if anything, we could glean from that. I know, because I was writing about that very thing. Then, the good numbers sustained themselves, and the big Sorare days continued. Well, in the end it was arguably a lifetime's worth of luck in one season. Blanco has a 2.88 ERA, but a 4.19 xFIP. He will finish the year with the largest gap on that front by a comfortable margin. Blanco has earned a rotation spot for 2025. I would be very surprised if he has an ERA lower than 3.50, and it will probably be at least a half-run higher than that.
Jake Fraley, CIN ($0.79): You know, maybe there's a reason why Fraley failed to find a regular role in MLB until 2023 in his age-28 season. He came out of nowhere to hit 15 home runs and steal 21 bases. This season, he has stolen 20 bases but only has five homers. On the other hand, his average has improved to .277. What to take away from all this? Fraley was the king of soft hits in 2024. He's the only MLB hitter with over 300 plate appearances to have over a quarter of his hits quality as soft. Somehow, he ended up with a .333 BABIP, his first season over .289. I think in 2025 it's more likely Fraley finds himself DFA'd than replicating his 2023 numbers, and you can't accumulate Sorare points in Triple-A.
