This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
If Truman Burbank played fantasy baseball, he would have had the perfect deal waiting in his inbox every day.
While "buy low, sell high" scratches an elementary logic itch and fills up plenty of column pixel every year, I don't see it happening in my leagues.
Twitter has helped reveal plenty of horrible trades going down across the fantasy universe, but assuming leagues comprised of mostly competitive players, owners aren't receiving a flood of offers that they would accept for their assets -- at either end of the performance spectrum.
In my experience, I have found that the most effective fantasy players leverage the market with commodities that are incorrectly valued by other members of their leagues.
I have a lot of Kyle Schwarber in my lineups right now.
17-team Steak League? Check.
12-team NL-only LABR? Check.
13-team mixed FSTA? Check.
With three homers, nine RBI, and 13 runs scored, the counting stats have been passable, albeit disappointing for a player positioned as the Cubs' leadoff hitter through the first month of the season. Considering his .196/.322/.330 line, the output above is actually somewhat surprising.
If I overestimated Schwarber's hit tool in my pre-2017 evaluations, the sooner I can acknowledge and adjust, the better. In fact, making an adjustment now probably leaves me with a trade market in those leagues with multiple winning buyers.
As Yahoo's Scott Pianowski points out...
Kyle Schwarber is America's favorite .202/.330/.340.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) May 2, 2017
If the poor April is a preview of a poor May, the interest in Schwarber will undoubtedly begin to dry up.
Entering play Tuesday, Schwarber has a career .228/.344/435 line with 19 homers, 52 RBI, and 65 runs scored in 393 career plate appearances. He's been patient since arriving in Chicago two summers ago, walking at a 13.5% clip for his career, but striking out at a steady 29.0% clip.
When he makes contact, Schwarber is doing a better job using the entire field this season, hitting the ball the opposite way 30.6% of the time -- up from 21.2% in 2015. That balance has come with an increase in grounders to this point, along with a spike in his infield flyball rate, which suggests that his .271 BABIP isn't entirely the byproduct of bad luck.
One month into the season, we appear to be a crossroads with Schwarber's 2017 expectations and whether or not it's time to make an adjustment, or if it's time to be patient.
In addition to the increase in groundballs, the early drop in hard contact is a concern as well.
I was considering an offer of Schwarber straight up for Billy Hamilton in the Steak League, prior to another owner swooping in to make a move for Hamilton before could I put it together.
What are reasonable 1-for-1 offers you would currently accept to part with Schwarber?
Weigh in with comments below.
Tuesday DFS
With a huge slate on tap for tonight, here's a look at the skills of Tuesday's starting pitchers.
I'm nearing the point of declaring myself to be wrong about Chris Sale's value with the move to Boston. He's always had to deal with a hitter-friendly home park, and perhaps my concerns about Fenway in particular, along with his drop in strikeout rate last season, was overblown.
With Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber squaring off in Detroit, I'm looking elsewhere in the second tier. I think it's a three-arm race between James Paxton (home against the Angels), Masahiro Tanaka (home against the Jays), and Carlos Martinez (home against the Brewers).
My lean is Tanaka in cash, Paxton in GPPs with Martinez close behind as a tournament alternative, or second starter on DraftKings.
Pitchers I'm Targeting w/Opposing Hitters
Mat Latos, TOR @ NYY -- It's a shame that Greg Bird is on now the 10-day DL, but apparently his ankle injury has been a problem since March 30, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Individually, Aaron Judge is the bat I'm most interested in, but he's pricey on both major sites ($4,100 FD/$4,000 DK). Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, and Matt Holliday can be stacked with relative ease, if desired, but it's *not* my favorite stack of this bunch.
Tyler Glasnow PIT @ CIN -- It's now or never for Glasnow, who has gone five innings just once in his first four starts. Given the choice, I would rather stack Reds with Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, and Joey Votto than load up with Yankees tonight, as Glasnow's poor command could fill the bases early and often.
Alec Asher, BAL @ BOS -- Asher doesn't miss bats often (4.9 K/9 in 65 MLB innings) and Fenway Park is a terrible place to pitch to contact. While it would be worse for him if he were a lefty, FanDuel is giving Xander Bogaerts away at $3,300 on Tuesday. For those going a little bit cheaper on the mound, a Boston stack is within reach with Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and Hanley Ramirez rounding out the top four spots in the order.
Wily Peralta, MIL @ STL -- Death, taxes, and Wily Peralta getting hit by the Cards. Much like my interest in Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, and Jedd Gyorko yesterday, filling in with 1-2 St. Louis bats -- let's add Dexter Fowler to that bunch as well -- seems necessary.
Mike Fiers, HOU v. TEX -- Some days, Fiers' pinpoint command locks up an unsuspecting lineup and stacking against him is extremely frustrating. Even if you want to go light with Rangers hitters, Rougned Odor is $3,300 on FanDuel is available at a nice discount, and he's not ridiculously expensive on DraftKings either ($4,200). Use Jonathan Lucroy at your own peril, as his slow start is puzzling and he's still buried in the No. 9 spot.
Cole Hamels, TEX @ HOU -- As value plays go, Evan Gattis and Carlos Beltran are the two pieces of the Houston lineup I like the most this evening, assuming both get the green light from manager A.J. Hinch. Hamels' surface numbers this spring mask another big step back from a skills-standpoint, as his 4.14 FIP since the start of last season is likely a sign of things to come from his ERA.
Scott Feldman CIN v. PIT -- I can't bring myself to go heavy with Pirates, but the switch-hitting Josh Bell gets a big power boost in Cincinnati while hitting from the left side for those seeking a cheap GPP-friendly first baseman.
Good luck tonight!
