This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
It's a typical Tuesday, which this time of year means 15 games, but 14 in play thanks to an early start for the A's and Indians in Cleveland.
Here's how the slate breaks down.
The Weather
Several games have light rain in the forecast for Tuesday night (a full weather report can be viewed here). From that batch, no postponements are expected as of 3p ET.
Heavy winds blowing out in San Francisco changes the look of one of the better pitching matchups on the slate (Nats-Giants, Gio Gonzalez v. Jeff Samardzija).
The Parks & Vegas Info
The Rockies are continuing a series with the Mariners at Coors Field with a pair of lefties -- Ariel Miranda and Tyler Anderson taking the ball for their respective clubs. Not surprisingly, the matchup in Colorado has the highest over/under on the board (11). In Arlington, the Rays-Rangers matchup (Matt Andreise v. Nick Martinez) checks in at an even 10.
The Arms
(Note: The Overall Skills Table compiles stats from the past calendar year.)
Split Skills
(Note: All Stats in the Split Skills Table are compiled since the start of the 2016 season.)
Chris Sale's return to Chicago comes against Jose Quintana, and that matchup is tied with the Giants-Nationals game for the lowest total on this slate (7.5). Sale has posted double-digit strikeouts in eight of his 10 starts this season, but a surprisingly difficult matchup puts a damper on the excitement of paying up for the only ace on the board in a "revenge game" setup. Through the first two months of the season, the White Sox rank first in MLB in wOBA versus lefties (.362) and second in K% against southpaws (17.2%).
Here's the question: Does it matter?
Stacking the White Sox against lesser left-handed starters is probably a nice GPP strategy, but avoiding Sale because of their success against Matthew Boyd and Jason Vargas may actually be a big mistake. Even though we're more than one-quarter of the way through the season, a favorable schedule against lefties could wreak havoc on what is still a small sample size.
The decision to build lineups around Sale hinges more on the quality of the bats you can find (while keeping costs close to $2,900/player on FanDuel at the other positions) than anything else.
In cash games, he's the best arm on the board by a wide margin. For tournaments, it's less clear.
The windy conditions and tough matchup make it difficult to lean heavily on Jeff Samardzija outside of a big-field tournament.
Picking on the Angels without Mike Trout will be a frequently used strategy over the next 6-8 weeks. Unfortunately, the best-case scenario for Bartolo Colon is probably a six-strikeout, seven-inning effort with 1-2 earned runs allowed.
Most of my attention is focused on Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray.
Verlander draws the Royals on the road, but the Tigers should be able to handle Kansas City rookie Eric Skoglund, and the Royals' offense remains a bottom-five unit against right-handed pitching.
For his career, Ray's ERA is more than two runs lower on the road than at home, and his biggest flaw -- homers allowed to righties -- becomes less of an issue at PNC Park, which stifles power from that side of the plate. Ray is a better value on DraftKings, while the small difference in their respective prices on FanDuel makes Verlander more desirable on that site.
Jose Berrios draws the Astros at home Tuesday, and the improved strikeout rate of the Houston offense has made picking on the Astros less appealing this season. Berrios has the look of a special talent since returning from Triple-A, but he is too risky for cash games despite having the upside to be the highest-scoring arm on the board on any given night. At $7,300 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel, Berrios is worth the risk in tournaments on both sites.
Dinelson Lamet draws the Cubs at Petco in his second career MLB start. Even though I have no plans to build a cheap tournament lineup around him, Lamet's outing is a high priority for me to watch in the later block of games. On the other side of the Padres-Cubs matchup, Eddie Butler has light tournament appeal, but his inconsistent control and low strikeout rate at Triple-A and in his first few starts with the Cubs are disappointing.
The Bats
Cheap Coors Exposure
Mark Reynolds, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gonzalez, and Trevor Story are priced between $3,500-$3,800 on FanDuel while filling the No. 4-7 spots in the lineup Tuesday. DJ LeMahieu is the best value of all at $3,200, and he's hitting second. On the Seattle side, Danny Valencia is moving up to the No. 2 hole in the order, and while he's less than ideal as an option at first base, at $3,300, he's in play on FanDuel and DraftKings ($3,600).
Against Nick Martinez
Logan Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier, and Colby Rasmus are the best lefty pieces to mix in at first base and in the outfield. As noted above, Martinez's struggles against righties are enough to go with mini and full stacks in Arlington. Evan Longoria at $3,100 is particularly affordable.
Against Eric Skoglund
Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez are priced in the mid $3,000s, and while both might be very heavily owned, they're top-five options at their respective positions on FanDuel. Justin Upton is only $2,900, thanks to a .225/.317/.405 line over the last 30 games.
Against Asher Wojciechowski
Josh Donaldson is $3,600 on FanDuel. Even if you want to fade the matchup against another unproven Cincinnati starter overall, Donaldson makes a lot of sense a one-off play. Russell Martin ($2,800) is one of the better options behind the plate from the affordable catcher ranks, but most attention will be directed at Chris Herrmann's chance to start against Ivan Nova and the Pirates.
Against Mike Fiers
Miguel Sano at $3,500 (FD) may come up low-owned with Nolan Arenado home against a lefty, and Donaldson home against Wojciechowski at a low price. Max Kepler is very affordable at $3,200 on FanDuel as well, and it should be noted that the prices on quality Twins bats are significantly higher across the board on DraftKings.
Odds & Ends
Eric Thames has been mired in a big slump, and a hamstring injury has been lingering throughout a significant portion of that. All Brewers bats are priced below $4,000 on FanDuel, including a steep discount ($3,100) that makes Thames a consideration. Tyler Pill and Zach Davies are matched up at Citi Field with an over/under of nine, and exposure with one or two of the Mets' left-handed bats against Davies (.338 wOBA, 1.35 HR/9 against lefties) is worth considering.
Rougned Odor continues to hover below $3,000 on FanDuel. Even though I like Matt Andriese is a nice back-end piece for season-long formats, the matchup in Texas on Tuesday night is a very tough one for him.
It's a typical Tuesday, which this time of year means 15 games, but 14 in play thanks to an early start for the A's and Indians in Cleveland.
Here's how the slate breaks down.
The Weather
Several games have light rain in the forecast for Tuesday night (a full weather report can be viewed here). From that batch, no postponements are expected as of 3p ET.
Heavy winds blowing out in San Francisco changes the look of one of the better pitching matchups on the slate (Nats-Giants, Gio Gonzalez v. Jeff Samardzija).
The Parks & Vegas Info
The Rockies are continuing a series with the Mariners at Coors Field with a pair of lefties -- Ariel Miranda and Tyler Anderson taking the ball for their respective clubs. Not surprisingly, the matchup in Colorado has the highest over/under on the board (11). In Arlington, the Rays-Rangers matchup (Matt Andreise v. Nick Martinez) checks in at an even 10.
The Arms
(Note: The Overall Skills Table compiles stats from the past calendar year.)
Split Skills
(Note: All Stats in the Split Skills Table are compiled since the start of the 2016 season.)
Chris Sale's return to Chicago comes against Jose Quintana, and that matchup is tied with the Giants-Nationals game for the lowest total on this slate (7.5). Sale has posted double-digit strikeouts in eight of his 10 starts this season, but a surprisingly difficult matchup puts a damper on the excitement of paying up for the only ace on the board in a "revenge game" setup. Through the first two months of the season, the White Sox rank first in MLB in wOBA versus lefties (.362) and second in K% against southpaws (17.2%).
Here's the question: Does it matter?
Stacking the White Sox against lesser left-handed starters is probably a nice GPP strategy, but avoiding Sale because of their success against Matthew Boyd and Jason Vargas may actually be a big mistake. Even though we're more than one-quarter of the way through the season, a favorable schedule against lefties could wreak havoc on what is still a small sample size.
The decision to build lineups around Sale hinges more on the quality of the bats you can find (while keeping costs close to $2,900/player on FanDuel at the other positions) than anything else.
In cash games, he's the best arm on the board by a wide margin. For tournaments, it's less clear.
The windy conditions and tough matchup make it difficult to lean heavily on Jeff Samardzija outside of a big-field tournament.
Picking on the Angels without Mike Trout will be a frequently used strategy over the next 6-8 weeks. Unfortunately, the best-case scenario for Bartolo Colon is probably a six-strikeout, seven-inning effort with 1-2 earned runs allowed.
Most of my attention is focused on Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray.
Verlander draws the Royals on the road, but the Tigers should be able to handle Kansas City rookie Eric Skoglund, and the Royals' offense remains a bottom-five unit against right-handed pitching.
For his career, Ray's ERA is more than two runs lower on the road than at home, and his biggest flaw -- homers allowed to righties -- becomes less of an issue at PNC Park, which stifles power from that side of the plate. Ray is a better value on DraftKings, while the small difference in their respective prices on FanDuel makes Verlander more desirable on that site.
Jose Berrios draws the Astros at home Tuesday, and the improved strikeout rate of the Houston offense has made picking on the Astros less appealing this season. Berrios has the look of a special talent since returning from Triple-A, but he is too risky for cash games despite having the upside to be the highest-scoring arm on the board on any given night. At $7,300 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel, Berrios is worth the risk in tournaments on both sites.
Dinelson Lamet draws the Cubs at Petco in his second career MLB start. Even though I have no plans to build a cheap tournament lineup around him, Lamet's outing is a high priority for me to watch in the later block of games. On the other side of the Padres-Cubs matchup, Eddie Butler has light tournament appeal, but his inconsistent control and low strikeout rate at Triple-A and in his first few starts with the Cubs are disappointing.
The Bats
Cheap Coors Exposure
Mark Reynolds, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gonzalez, and Trevor Story are priced between $3,500-$3,800 on FanDuel while filling the No. 4-7 spots in the lineup Tuesday. DJ LeMahieu is the best value of all at $3,200, and he's hitting second. On the Seattle side, Danny Valencia is moving up to the No. 2 hole in the order, and while he's less than ideal as an option at first base, at $3,300, he's in play on FanDuel and DraftKings ($3,600).
Against Nick Martinez
Logan Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier, and Colby Rasmus are the best lefty pieces to mix in at first base and in the outfield. As noted above, Martinez's struggles against righties are enough to go with mini and full stacks in Arlington. Evan Longoria at $3,100 is particularly affordable.
Against Eric Skoglund
Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez are priced in the mid $3,000s, and while both might be very heavily owned, they're top-five options at their respective positions on FanDuel. Justin Upton is only $2,900, thanks to a .225/.317/.405 line over the last 30 games.
Against Asher Wojciechowski
Josh Donaldson is $3,600 on FanDuel. Even if you want to fade the matchup against another unproven Cincinnati starter overall, Donaldson makes a lot of sense a one-off play. Russell Martin ($2,800) is one of the better options behind the plate from the affordable catcher ranks, but most attention will be directed at Chris Herrmann's chance to start against Ivan Nova and the Pirates.
Against Mike Fiers
Miguel Sano at $3,500 (FD) may come up low-owned with Nolan Arenado home against a lefty, and Donaldson home against Wojciechowski at a low price. Max Kepler is very affordable at $3,200 on FanDuel as well, and it should be noted that the prices on quality Twins bats are significantly higher across the board on DraftKings.
Odds & Ends
Eric Thames has been mired in a big slump, and a hamstring injury has been lingering throughout a significant portion of that. All Brewers bats are priced below $4,000 on FanDuel, including a steep discount ($3,100) that makes Thames a consideration. Tyler Pill and Zach Davies are matched up at Citi Field with an over/under of nine, and exposure with one or two of the Mets' left-handed bats against Davies (.338 wOBA, 1.35 HR/9 against lefties) is worth considering.
Rougned Odor continues to hover below $3,000 on FanDuel. Even though I like Matt Andriese is a nice back-end piece for season-long formats, the matchup in Texas on Tuesday night is a very tough one for him.
