This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
"It's a marathon, not a sprint."
"It's barely April."
"It's a loooooong season."
We've heard that all before, but if "our" players are either playing well or not playing up to the expectations we had when we rostered them, we can't help but be happy or cringe when looking at box scores or watching highlights. Let's look at a handful of players who have stood out, consider their history and try to figure out if what we're seeing is real. Judging by the headline of each section below, you'll know my thoughts right away.
Shohei Ohtani is not a fantasy ace, nor is he an above-average DH
Don't get me wrong, I love Ohtani's raw stuff on the mound. He averaged 98 mph with his fastball in his debut, hitting triple-digits at times. His splitter was impressive, but his slider less so. You could tell he was missing his spots rather frequently, but with that stuff, it matters less. I didn't see a lot of movement on his fastball, but maybe it doesn't matter, as he doesn't rely on it as much as other starters, throwing it just 42.4 percent of the time in start No. 1. Considering the Angels appear to be willing to only give him one start a week, that means instead of 31-34 starts, we're looking at probably 25-27. That hurts his value a bit. We also have to wonder whether his hitting will distract from his pitching. Will he still take time to make adjustments
"It's a marathon, not a sprint."
"It's barely April."
"It's a loooooong season."
We've heard that all before, but if "our" players are either playing well or not playing up to the expectations we had when we rostered them, we can't help but be happy or cringe when looking at box scores or watching highlights. Let's look at a handful of players who have stood out, consider their history and try to figure out if what we're seeing is real. Judging by the headline of each section below, you'll know my thoughts right away.
Shohei Ohtani is not a fantasy ace, nor is he an above-average DH
Don't get me wrong, I love Ohtani's raw stuff on the mound. He averaged 98 mph with his fastball in his debut, hitting triple-digits at times. His splitter was impressive, but his slider less so. You could tell he was missing his spots rather frequently, but with that stuff, it matters less. I didn't see a lot of movement on his fastball, but maybe it doesn't matter, as he doesn't rely on it as much as other starters, throwing it just 42.4 percent of the time in start No. 1. Considering the Angels appear to be willing to only give him one start a week, that means instead of 31-34 starts, we're looking at probably 25-27. That hurts his value a bit. We also have to wonder whether his hitting will distract from his pitching. Will he still take time to make adjustments to his repertoire, study opposing teams' hitters, etc.? We don't know. It will be most interesting to see how he fares the second time around the league, as opponents will study video and adjusting. Will he?
Then there's the hitting. After going 4-fo-32 (all singles) this spring, there were already calls for Ohtani to give up hitting. "He's basically like a high school hitter because he's never seen a good curveball," one scout told Yahoo Sports. "He's seen fastballs and changeups. And you're asking a high school hitter to jump to the major leagues?" So, of course, Ohtani starts 4-for-9 with a home run as a DH. Ohtani, though, hit his home run off Cleveland's Josh Tomlin, he of the 1.6 career HR/9 rate and 4.98 ERA last season. Bottom line, I'm not quite on the Ohtani hype train yet, and if I owned him and received offers such as a friend of mine received this week (his Scherzer for my friend's Ohtani), I'd jump. That trade happened by the way. Maybe he ends up being a .270/.340/.440 hitter, and that's fine, but this "Japanese Babe Ruth" stuff is ridiculous. Late Edit: Ohtani homered again. This time off Corey Kluber. Scratch the previous two paragraphs?
Jose Martinez needs to start every day
Now that Jedd Gyorko (hamstring) is on the disabled list, Martinez is the everyday first baseman with Matt Carpenter at third, but even once Gyorko returns (projected April 12), Martinez should be the starter. He's off to a .444/.476/.611 start with one walk and just one strikeout in 21 plate appearances. This after an .890 OPS this spring and a .309/.379/.518 slash for the Cardinals a year ago. Martinez hasn't shown great power in past seasons, but he's hit for average at most every level while walking 10-plus percent of the time. It would be generous to say that he's average defensively, but by all accounts, the Cardinals believe in his bat. Once Gyorko returns, he should slide into a utility role, meaning Martinez will sit on occasion along with players such as Kolten Wong, but Martinez should have value in most formats. If you project last year's 14 homers over 550 at-bats this year, Martinez would hit 25, so it's not like he's James Loney.
Didi Gregorius is a top-4 shortstop
Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager remain my top three, but after Gregorius, it's a pretty big drop. Remember in 2012 when then-Arizona general manager Kevin Towers (RIP) compared Gregorius to a guy named Derek Jeter and was scorned mercilessly? Pepperidge Farms remembers. It's still an unfair comparison, but Gregorius is now an elite shortstop. After hitting .287/.318/.478 with 25 home runs and elite defense last year, Gregorius appears poised to take another step forward this season. Gregorius' four-hit eight-RBI game on Tuesday gave him a 1.635 OPS this year. He's only struck out once in 21 plate appearances while drawing three walks. That won't continue given his career 5.6 BB%, but if Gregorius can get his walk rate back to or higher than 2013's 9.2 percent, he should be in line for his first All-Star appearance this summer. A lack of steals kept his ADP in the 120 range this year, but I'd be more than happy to take him at 100.
Garrett Richards could be a top-20 starter
Sure the 5.9 BB/9 needs to come down, and it will, but if this guy stays healthy, and that's a big "if," the Angels are going to make a playoff run. Richards is averaging 96.2 mph with his fastball, a mark that would be his best since 2014, and given it's only early April, that makes it all the more impressive. He allowed just one hit in 5.2 innings to a pretty good Indians team on Tuesday and though he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP after a rocky first start in Oakland, it was pretty easy to like the stuff he showed Tuesday. Richards might fly under the radar with all the star power the Angels have now, but if there's one player who is key to a deep playoff run, it might be him.
This is Brandon Belt's breakout season … finally
Belt had a huge game Wednesday, going 3-for-4 with a homer, walk, two runs and two RBI. Belt is now batting .353, and though that was his first homer of the year, I've always been a huge Belt guy. Belt hit a disappointing .241/.355/.469 last season, but I think there's still the possibility of a breakout. He hasn't had a BB% lower than 13.3 percent in the last three years and appears to be over his concussion symptoms, heading into this season completely healthy. I've seem probably 80 percent of his at-bats this season and am pretty confident that Belt is both focused and determined to have a career year. No guarantee that happens obviously, but Belt is still just 29 (30 later this month), and I think he can exceed his .868 career-high OPS in 2018.
Dan Vogelbach will get 550 PA this year … in the big leagues
Vogelbach has nothing left to prove in Triple-A after batting .290/.388/.455 there last year. A .165 ISO in the Pacific Coast League is nothing special, but Vogelach has always been a guy that scouts figured count hit 20-plus homers. So far this season, Vogelbach is just 2-for-9, but both hits came Wednesday (including a double). The big issue with Vogelbach is defense, or lack thereof. He's listed at 6-foot-0, 250, which doesn't exactly evoke memories of Keith Hernandez's defense around first base. That leaves DH where Nelson Cruz is expected to slot in plenty of time this year, and at first base the Mariners have Ryon Healy, who hit 25 homers for the A's last year. So why 550 plate appearances for Vogelbach? Simply, the Mariners need to see what they have in him, and that will hopefully lead to production. In nearly 3,000 minor-league plate appearances, Vogelbach has a 14.4 BB% and 17.1 K%. Those are elite numbers and are indicative of a hitter who can control the strike zone. Now whether that translates into counting stats at the big-league level is TBD, but I'm hopeful.
Patrick Corbin could get an $80 million contract in December
As crazy as it sounds for a player with a career 4.41 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, Corbin is in prime position for a nice contract this winter as a free-agent-to-be. The lefty was slow (very slow) to recover from 2014 Tommy John surgery, but he's healthy and looks amazing so far this year. Corbin is 2-0 in 13 innings with a 1.38 ERA and impressive 20:2 K:BB. The only two runs he's allowed have come via a pair of solo home runs, and Corbin's 1.1 career HR/9 is a bit high, but I've always liked his stuff. The early returns on the effectiveness of Corbin's fastball have been positive, this after the fastball has graded as a negative pitch each of the last two seasons. If Corbin stays healthy and keeps his GB% above 50 percent (as he did in 2016-2017), his prospects for a strong free-agent season are positive.
It's time to panic on a few closers
Kenley Jansen (LAD) - I'm not as concerned with the dip in velocity as I am with the lack of movement on his cutter. Jansen in two innings has given up two home runs, walked two and, amazingly, struck out none. This from a reliever with at least 96 strikeouts in six of his seven full seasons. Jansen was even shown rubbing his shoulder in the dugout in his last outing. Maybe too much has been read into that, but there could be an underlying injury, whether it be an arm or perhaps, more likely, a favoring of the hamstring that gave him issues this spring. At this point, unless he turns things around in his next outing, I think a DL stint is likely. Let him rest and go on a short rehab assignment. Meanwhile, given how impressive Josh Fields (paternity leave) has been, I think he'd be first in line, followed by Tony Cingrani and (close your eyes Dodgers fans) Pedro Baez.
Blake Parker (LAA) - Parker allowed runs in two of his three appearances. His spring ERA was 14.54 – perhaps spring stats do sometimes mean something. Parker was so good last year (2.54 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9) that he'll get additional save opportunities, but be prepared should he falter again. Jim Johnson seems like the next best bet given his early performance and experience, though Kenyan Middleton is also an option and is off to a good start.
Brad Ziegler (MIA) - Ziegler still sits atop the closer depth chart in Miami, but he's at best the third-best reliever on the team, so a change could come sooner than later. In three appearances, Ziegler has a 9.82 ERA and zero clean innings. Velocity has never been his calling card, and overall it hasn't been a huge issue in his career, but it's down for the fifth consecutive year, and after posting a 4.79 ERA last season, perhaps that's catching up to him. Drew Steckenrider is a worthy gamble in deeper leagues, but Kyle Barraclough probably gets the next chance at the closer role. Barraclough has faced 10 hitters this year, striking out five, walking one and allowing no hits. With a 12.1 career K/9, he has closer stuff, though beware the 5.5 BB/9.
Fernando Rodney (MIN) - Hopefully you had the under on "date in which a massive number of fantasy owners flocked to the waiver wire to grab Addison Reed." The 41-year-old took the loss in his first appearance for his new team, and with Reed signing an $18 million contract this winter, it's probably only a matter of time before he gets a look. Rodney recorded 39 saves last season, but he also blew six and had a 4.23 ERA. This spring Rodney won the job despite a 7.71 ERA, but that was based more off his career 300 saves than on actual performance, so once manager Paul Molitor either has a heart attack or tires of all the walks and shaky saves, Reed should get a look.
Shane Greene (DET) – Green has already allowed six baserunners and three runs (two earned) in two appearances, and with the Tigers likely in full tank mode, it might not take long for them to turn to Plan B. Of course, the best scenario would be having Green be a lights-out closer for three-plus months, allowing the Tigers to trade him for prospects, but if he continues to falter, look for them to turn to likely closer-of-the-future Joe Jimenez. Jimenez has given up one hit and no runs in 2.1 innings while averaging 94.4 mph with his fastball. He's struggled with walks (4.6 BB/9) in his young career, but in 167.1 minor league innings, Jimenez has an elite 13.0 K/9. In deeper leagues, he's worth a stash.
Quick hits: Bryce Harper has 24 plate appearances, four home runs, seven walks, two sacrifice flie, and no walks. In my mind, if he is healthy for 150 games, he's a lock for NL MVP. … Anyone see any Matt Davidson trades after his three-home run Opening Day? Guessing no one is buying that. … As a Dodgers fan, sitting here wondering whether Clayton Kershaw will go 8-15 with a 2.10 ERA. … Former Dodgers punching bag Chris Hatcher is 2-0 while future HOFer Clayton Kershaw is 0-2. Think about that for a while. … Dylan Bundy has a 15:3 K:BB through 13 innings, but sadly, he still has the Orioles offense "supporting" him. … I'm a huge Ben Gamel fan. Just sayin'.
