Regan's Rumblings: Spring Observations Around the League

This is precisely the time of year when we like to overreact, right? A 26-year-old journeyman first baseman has three homers in four spring games? He's the next Chris Davis. A World Series hero gets lit up in his first appearance? He's due for a massive decline. This time of year, I've already paid up for the MLB.TV premium package. I've attended spring training games and watched several more via MLB.TV and scanned the boxscores of those that I wasn't able to watch because my family and my "real job" "got in the way." Here are my early observations for all 30 teams. Due to space limitations, the observations are brief, but hopefully helpful.

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks -Yasmany Tomas will be the Opening Day third baseman. Already we've seen positive feedback on Tomas' defense at third base, and given his offensive upside compared to the likes of Jake Lamb, early edge goes to Tomas. This is positive news for David Peralta's fantasy value, as Tomas will be a starter either way (OF or 3B) given the organization's $68 million investment. Peralta is a worthy NL-only league starter.

Colorado Rockies -Nolan Arenado is off to a hot start, and I'll go out on a huge limb and say that he finishes as a top-six third baseman. Not quite 24, Arenado has nearly 1,000 MLB PA under his belt and is coming off an .828 OPS season last year. His elite glove work will help keep him in the lineup through any prolonged slumps, and the upside and home park are super enticing.

Los Angeles Dodgers - I got a chance to watch Brett Anderson up close Monday and came away impressed with his two scoreless innings against the Giants. I didn't see a stadium radar gun unfortunately, but he looked crisp with his pitches and the location was excellent. The usual "if he's healthy" caveats certainly apply here, but I'm targeting Anderson in NL-only formats.

San Diego Padres - Since it's the time of the year to overreact, Will Middlebrooks is 4-for-10 with a home run through Monday's action. It's pretty much his last shot at a starting job this spring, so the motivation should be there, and the bats around him are impressive. I will probably end up with him in my NL-only auction later this month.

San Francisco Giants - It's 13 at-bats, but let's overreact to Gary Brown's .308/.357/.615 start. I was invested heavily in Brown, but I must say that was three years ago. Late bloomer perhaps? Even with the Hunter Pence injury, Brown is unlikely to beat out Gregor Blanco for a starting job, but given Justin Maxwell is off to an 0-for-10 start, keep Brown on your NL-only radars. Four years ago in High-A ball, Brown posted a .926 OPS with 53 stolen bases.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs - Anyone interested in seeing how Kris Bryant fares this spring? Well, if you're a fantasy owner, this is one of the players you're looking at daily. Bryant has already homered this spring, but what to make of "competitor" Mike Olt's two home runs? I am 100 percent convinced that Bryant opens in Triple-A for "financial reasons," comes up in late April, hits 25 homers with a .270 BA and wins the NL ROY.

Pittsburgh Pirates - I'm setting my over/under on Jung-Ho Kang at-bats at about 400. He's not going to be a full-time player initially, but instead will rotate between second, third and short. I'd probably wager that he would play more short than anywhere given Jordy Mercer's job security is weaker than those of Neil Walker and Josh Harrison, but perhaps the Pirates will get fed up with Pedro Alvarez's dwindling numbers. That could push Harrison to first and open up third for Kang, who hit 40 homers last year, albeit in South Korea.

Milwaukee Brewers - With a 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Jimmy Nelson was much better than his 4.93 ERA last year. Nelson's FIP clocked in at 3.85 and his BABIP at .354, and given his solid minor-league track record, I think a breakout is coming.

Cincinnati Reds - For a player who stole 155 bases in a minor league season, Billy Hamilton's rookie year was a bit of a letdown. A mediocre .292 OBP led to Hamilton stealing "only" 56 bases, and his inexperience led to 23 caught stealings. I think moderate improvement is in store -- .305 OBP, 65 SB. Just don't expect a huge leap quite yet.

St. Louis Cardinals -Trevor Rosenthal will be a top-five closer this year. There's no way a pitcher who put up a 1.10 WHIP and 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 can suddenly turn into one who posts 1.4 and 5.4 in those categories every year. I see him returning to form and being that 100-K closer we all know.

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves - An outfielder I'm looking at in deeper leagues is Eury Perez, the frontrunner to fill in for the injured Melvin Upton Jr. (foot). Upton is expected to be out a month, giving Perez an extended look if he wins the job this spring. Perez has stolen as many as 64 bases in a season, and he doesn't strike out (or walk) that much. Keep an eye on him this spring.

New York Mets - The Mets have a handful of breakout candidates, including catcher Travis d'Arnaud, but don't sleep on Wilmer Flores. He's off to a 6-for-14 start and is feeling more comfortable at short defensively. Flores' .664 OPS last year was due in large part to a mediocre 4.4 BB%, but this is still the guy who at age 21, hit a solid .321/.357/.521 in Triple-A.

Miami Marlins - I probably get asked about Marcell Ozuna more than any other Marlin, and for good reason. After notching just three homers in 70 games as a rookie, Ozuna swatted 23 in 154 games last year, batting .269/.317/.455 with 85 RBI. He also improved his BB% from 4.5 to 6.7 year over year, though his strikeout rate rose seven percentage points to 26.8 percent. Don't expect dramatic improvement in that area this year, but perhaps he can make further progress and get his BA into the .270s.

Washington Nationals - Michael Taylor could get a full month of at-bats as the Nats' CF given the injury to Denard Span (core muscle surgery). Taylor is an intriguing option coming off last year's 24 homers and 37 stolen bases (Double-A mostly), but he also struck out 30 percent of the time, and that ended up getting exposed at the higher levels. Still, the power and speed are enticing.

Philadelphia Phillies - Cliff Lee will reportedly try to pitch through a flexor tear, but I wouldn't hold your breath. This seems all but certain to help hasten the exit of Cole Hamels given that the Phillies will have even less to play for now other than the future. While we ponder Maikel Franco's future and when he'll be up in 2015, what of Domonic Brown? Coming off a 27-homer All-Star season in 2013, Brown hit just .235 with 10 homers last year as his BB% continued its downward spiral. Brown is working with Hall-of-Famer Mike Schmidt this spring on his approach, but we just don't know which Brown will show up this year. Figure it's somewhere in between -- .250, 20 HR, 70 RBI.

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels - I look at the Angels, and with all the uncertainty surrounding Josh Hamilton, I see a team that could get off to a rocky start and be sellers at the trade deadline. Erick Aybar could cede the shortstop job to Cuban import Roberto Baldoquin, and perhaps Huston Street could be shipped out with Joe Smith or Cesar Ramos closing. I do like Kole Calhoun, and think he could go 20/15 if he can get that 7.1 BB% up.

Texas Rangers - Speaking of an AL West team being sellers, with Yu Darvish apparently headed for Tommy John surgery, might Texas look to deal Adrian Beltre, Yovani Gallardo and others? Meanwhile, I love Rougned Odor this year. He's 6-for-13 with a homer and two doubles this spring and last September was excellent - .296/.345/.481. He'll also play all of 2015 at age 21.

Oakland A's - I really like Jesse Haun this year. I got to see a few of his starts with the Padres last year and came away impressed. In his 73.1 big-league innings, Haun posted a 3.07 ERA and 8.6 K/9. I expect his 3.9 BB/9 to come down considerably now that he's acclimated to the big leagues.

Seattle Mariners -Rickie Weeks looks like a decent AL-only play. He'll see time in the outfield and at first base this year, and, of course, will be second base eligible in all leagues for one more year. Weeks should see at least 300 at-bats given Logan Morrison's injury history and Dustin Ackley's lack of a track record and could be good for double-digit home runs.

Houston Astros - I think Chad Qualls gets the Opening Day nod as closer over Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek, but all three should be owned in deeper leagues. Qualls, though, posted a 7.5 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 while generating his usual huge bounty of ground balls for Houston last year. This situation though could change quickly.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox - Carlos Rodon probably won't crack the Opening Day rotation, but it might not be long before we see him in Chicago. Last year's No. 3 overall pick is already a finished product, and John Danks and Hector Noesi form a shaky back end of the White Sox rotation. To me, Rodon is an AL ROY candidate.

Detroit Tigers - I've rebuffed trade offers for J.D. Martinez this offseason, but the truth is, I don't know exactly what to expect. Last year's .911 OPS came out of nowhere, and given his .397 BABIP and 0.24 BB/K, some regression has to be expected. Still, one does not hit .315 with 23 HR in 123 games and completely fall off the map the next year. Figure something in the .280s with 20-25 homers if he gets 600 PA. He's 6-for-14 with a homer this spring.

Cleveland Indians - The Tribe has questions all over the infield, even at first base where Carlos Santana will look to improve upon his .231 BA last year. I'm not ready to give up on Jason Kipnis, but Lonnie Chisenhall won't be on any of my teams this year after posting a .592 OPS after the All-Star break last season. After a blazing start, I'm guessing pitchers figured out how to exploit the holes in his swing. I can see Zach Walters starting by May.

Kansas City Royals - The Royals control Mike Moustakas for three more years, but this has to be a make or break year for the former top prospect. He's yet to hit above .242 in a full season while averaging a so-so 16 homers a year the last three. On the plus side, Moustakas just posted a reasonable 14.8 K% and a .220 BABIP has to go up, right? I've seen a few "Moustakas will break out" pieces recently, but weren't those same articles written in 2013 and 2014 as well? I'll pass.

Minnesota Twins - After seeing Glen Perkins end last year with an arm injury and open this one with an oblique, I have to wonder whether the innings are catching up to the Twins' closer. Perkins has pitched in at least 61 games four consecutive years, but we did see a dip in velocity in 2014, so consider Casey Fien in deeper formats.

AL EAST

New York Yankees - So far so good for Alex Rodriguez this spring, as he's shaken off the rust to the tune of a 5-for-11 (2B, HR) start. Arod will play against all lefties as the DH, and should see time at first and third as well. In fact, given Garrett Jones is his competition for DH at-bats, seeing ARod rack up 400 PA is possible.

Boston Red Sox - You don't have to convince me that Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo should start from day one in the revamped Boston outfield. That would leave Shane Victorino, Allen Craig and others on the outside looking in, but that's what should happen. Now, what will happen? I wish I could say. Trades and injuries could lessen the logjam, but either way, if I'm looking at all of 2015, my top-five Boston outfielders would be Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Victorino and then Craig last.

Tampa Bay Rays - There are plenty of breakout candidates on the Tampa Bay roster (Steven Souza), but I'll roll the dice on Nick Franklin. He seems to have an easy path to the Opening Day second-base job despite a 1-for-10 spring start and a nagging hip injury. And 15/15 or even 20/20 is possible for Franklin at some point in his career, though the strikeouts could serve to limit his BA, at least in the short term.

Toronto Blue Jays - The ACL tear suffered by Marcus Stroman is unfortunate and is ripe with fantasy implications. It makes a lot of sense to slot both Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez in the rotation, but that would leave Marco Estrada in the bullpen and Brett Cecil as the favorite to close. Would the Jays decide that they are better with Estrada as a starter and Sanchez as the closer? Probably not. Estrada held hitters to a .611 OPS as a reliever last year versus .808 as a starter, and letting Sanchez throw 170 innings as a starter is better than 70 as a reliever, at least we think. Look for Toronto to pursue someone like Rafael Soriano to put in the closer mix with Cecil.

Baltimore Orioles - I'd be pretty frustrated if I were an Orioles fan. Making the playoffs two of the last three years and then having an offseason that consists of losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and bringing in Travis Snider as their big offseason acquisition. Way to try and take that next step forward O's. Anyway, while we ponder the significance of Matt Wieters' 0-for-20 start, I ponder how many of my teams are going to have Manny Machado as my starting third baseman. I'd worry about a 32-year-old with recent knee injuries, but Machado is 22 and capable of putting his injuries behind him. My conservative projection: .280-20-80. Not so conservative: .300-25-100.