Regan's Rumblings: September Call-ups and 2017 Closers

For me, September this year is about these three things in terms of fantasy sports:

1 - Preparing for my fantasy football drafts.

2 - Preparing for 2017 in my fantasy baseball keeper leagues in which I am not competitive (applies to most of my teams). This includes speculating on 2017 closers and September call-ups.

3 - Getting my roster ready for the playoffs in H2H leagues.

Fantasy football advice is beyond the scope of this feature, so let's spend some time focusing on #2.

2017 Closers

Historically, we've found that anywhere between 40-50 percent of the 30 Opening Day closers don't hold down that role for the balance of the year due to either injury or performance. This year we've seen the following guys go down with various injuries: Wade Davis, Huston Street, and Trevor Rosenthal. Cody Allen and Ken Giles lost and eventually regained their jobs. Guys like Shawn Tolleson and Jonathan Papelbon were projected for 35+ saves (oops.) In recent years, I've been relatively successful at nabbing closers on the cheap, both at the end of the year in anticipation of following-year saves, and in-season. Here are a few current non-closers that could work their way into 2017 saves as teams look to make changes at the back end of the bullpen:

Mauricio Cabrera (ATL) – Current Closer: Jim Johnson. I'm pretty sure the Braves are thinking of Johnson as a place holder, as either Cabrera or Arodys Vizcaino could fill the role on the cheap next year. I like Cabrera, as what's not to like about a guy who averages 100.3 mph with this fastball? At 22, Cabrera still has work to do on his command, control, and secondary offerings, as a guy throwing that hard should have a K/9 greater than 8.5. At least he's improved his Double-A BB/9 of 6.0 to a reasonable 3.3 in the big leagues, but further improvement is necessary. Still, a guy who throws that hard is worth speculating on.

Carl Edwards Jr. (CHC) – Current Closer: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is set to be a free agent after the season, so the Cubs could go in a number of different directions here. Should they look for an internal replacement, guys like past closer Hector Rondon would be in the mix, but perhaps with an impressive September and March, Edwards becomes the favorite. He's averaging 95.1 mph with his fastball with an elite 12.3 K/9. In 51 overall innings this year, Edwards has allowed just two home runs, The "to-do" for Edwards going forward relates to his so-so 3.5 BB/9, though to be fair, that metric sat at 6.1 in the minors this year.

Nate Jones CHW) – Current Closer: David Robertson. Should the White Sox look to hit the reset button and sell off guys like Chris Sale and Robertson, Jones is the most likely guy on the current roster to slide into the closer role. Jones has notched 26 holds with an impressive 10.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 96.8 mph average fastball.

Raisel Iglesias (CIN) – Current Closer: Tony Cingrani. Michael Lorenzen could also be a name to watch should the Reds return Iglesias to the rotation or continue to use him as a multiple-innings reliever. Iglesias though has thrived since moving to the bullpen. In 35 innings as a reliever, Iglesias has posting a 1.03 ERA and 40:14 K:BB while holding batters to a microscopic 1.03 ERA. The Reds could move him back to the rotation, but given his success as a reliever as well as the young pitching depth the Reds have with guys like Amir Garrett, I think Iglesias will lead the team in saves next year.

Bruce Rondon (DET) – Current Closer: Francisco Rodriguez. The Tigers will probably end up exercising Rodriguez's 2017 option or signing some other high-priced closer, but perhaps eventually Rondon will get a look. Rondon has been touched for four homers in 24 innings, but after losing weight and refining his mechanics, Rondon has dropped his BB/9 from last year's 5.5 to just 2.3 this year. With a fastball that averages 97.7 mph, Rondon's K/9 remains elite at 11.6.

Cam Bedrosian (LAA) – Current Closer: Huston Street (when healthy). Street is under contract for 2017, but assuming his knee is 100% in 2017, he'll be the team's closer. That said, if he is healthy, look for the Angels to grab a prospect or two for their decrepit farm system and deal Street to a contender. That would likely leave one of the team's few 2016 bright spots, Bedrosian, as the team's closer. Bedrosian posted a 1.12 ERA and 11.4 K/9 before getting hurt and being declared out for the year, but assuming he's healthy, he should be the guy next year. I don't foresee the Angels spending big on a closer given all the holes they have on their roster.

Kyle Barraclough (MIA) – Current Closer: A.J. Ramos / Fernando Rodney. The Marlins could go in a number of directions with their closer position, but Barraclough could get some consideration given he's already topped 100 strikeouts on the year as a reliever with an elite 14.7 K/9. Of course a 5.6 BB/9 is just as eyebrow-raising, so he'll need to make some adjustments….or has he already done so? In his last 9.1 innings, Barraclough has walked just one while striking out 13. If he can maintain anything close to that in September, Barraclough should get serious consideration for a late-inning role next year.

Trevor May (MIN) – Current Closer: Brandon Kintzler. Glen Perkins' status for 2017 is very much up in the air given the difficulty many pitchers face in recovering from labrum surgery. Kintzler has done a decent job for the most part, but you don't see too many guys with 5.6 K/9's having sustained success as a closer. May should return from a back injury sometimes next week, and although he has a 4.89 ERA, May has a shiny 12.5 K/9, so if he can drive down the home run metric (1.5 HR/9), he could be closing before long.

Addison Reed (NYM) – Current Closer: Jeurys Familia. With his second consecutive 43-save season, Familia is clearly the overwhelming favorite to be the team's closer next year, but it's also going to be his third straight season with at least 70 innings. That sort of workload has led to other guys getting hurt or tailing off, and while I'm not saying that will happen to Familia, it's always possible. That would likely push Reed into the closer role, as he has one more year of arbitration eligibility before hitting the open market after 2017. Reed has had a career year in 2017, posting a 2.04 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9.

Sean Doolittle (OAK) – Current Closer: Ryan Madson. Sadly, Madson is set to be the team's second highest-paid player next year behind Billy Butler, so he'll be a prime trade candidate this winter despite just signing a three-year $22 million deal over the winter. That's how the A's operate. Should Madson be dealt or fall off in performance, Doolittle is the next likeliest internal candidate for the role. He's struggled with his health the past couple years, but for his career, Doolittle has a 10.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. I think he leads the A's in saves next year.

Hector Neris (PHI) – Current Closer: Jeanmar Gomez. If you're in a REALLY deep league, you can also look at Erubray Ramos, but Neris is my pick to be the Phillies' closer next year. Gomez has been a nice waiver wire pickup this year, but he's struggled in recent outings and a 5.6 K/9 isn't something that will allow for long-term success in a closer role. Neris meanwhile has been lights out this year, posting a 2.14 ERA, 11.2 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. He's also allowed one run in his last 20.1 innings with a decent 27:2 K:BB.

Carter Capps (SD) – Current Closer: Brandon Maurer. Capps has been out for the year after having Tommy John surgery in March, but he's expected to be ready for 2017, and given the state of the San Diego bullpen, he's worth a look in deep keeper leagues. Last year in 31 innings for the Marlins, Capps posted elite numbers – 1.16 ERA, 16.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.

Hunter Strickland (SF) – Current Closer: Santiago Casilla. The Giants could go in a number of different directions with their bullpen this winter given Casilla is a free agent. Should they stay in-house, Strickland could get a look in the ninth. He routinely hits the upper-90s with his fastball, though his 8.0 K/9 is a bit lower than we would expect.

Trevor Rosenthal (STL) – Current Closer: Seung Hwan Oh. It's safe to say that with a 1.70 ERA and 11.7 K/9 that the Cardinals will exercise Oh's 2017 option, making him the huge favorite to close next year. Don't give up on Rosenthal though, as he graded as a top-five closer last year after posting a 2.10 ERA with 48 saves and a 10.9 K/9. This year Rosenthal has obviously struggled with a 5.13 ERA in addition to shoulder and hamstring injuries, but his K/9 remains elite at 13.0. Mechanically however, he's been off, as evidenced by a BB/9 rate that's jumped from 3.3 to an ugly 7.3. At 26, he's young enough to figure that out and return as an elite closer, though it probably won't happen right away next year, if at all.

Matt Bush (TEX) – Current Closer: Sam Dyson. Dyson is far from an established closer, so the job could be opened up to competition next spring. Bush would seemingly be a strong candidate give his 96.9 mph average fastball and plus breaking stuff. Bush has a 2.85 ERA in 47.1 innings, and though 8.6 K/9 isn't elite, it could also increase next year with another full spring training under his belt.

Shawn Kelley (WAS) – Current Closer: Mark Melancon. The Nationals will likely look to spend some money to upgrade the bullpen this winter, so impending free agent Melancon will be a candidate to return given he's signed through 2018. Kelley has an elite 13.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though a 1.7 HR/9 may keep him from the ninth inning.

September Call-ups

I've written in detail about September call-ups in recent articles, so I won't rehash each of those players here, but the big prospect news of course is that Yoan Moncada will get the call from Double-A on Friday. All Moncada has done this year is bat .298/.411/.518 with 15 home runs and a whopping 45 stolen bases. The power numbers may seem relatively modest for baseball's #1 overall prospect, but 11 of those 15 have come in his 44 games in Double-A, so the power has clearly been there the last couple months. Moncada should see the majority of the third base at-bats given the recent paltry production the Red Sox have received, so clearly he should be owned in all formats.

Next up in terms of potential impact would be Padres outfielders Manuel Margot (.307/.354/.456, 28 SB) and Hunter Renfroe (.307, 28 HR), though it's not guaranteed that either or both will see significant September playing time. Both, however, should be in the team's plans early in 2017.

Braves 2B/SS Ozzie Albies is just 19, but he may still get a look this month despite hitting just .248/.307/.351 in Triple-A. He's hit far better at the Double-A level (.324/.393.458) and his 29 steals are appealing. I do still expect Albies will open 2017 in Triple-A either way, barring a lights-out March.

On the pitching side, the name to watch is Dodgers SP Jose De Leon who has fanned 10 in each of his last two Triple-A starts. Look for the Dodgers to quickly realize that he's a better option than non-injured Bud Norris and injured-but-returning guys like Brett Anderson.

Milwaukee's Josh Hader isn't on the 40-man roster, but he reportedly received consideration for a recent start. Hader has a 5.18 ERA in 13 Triple-A starts, but his 11.3 K/9 speaks to his upside.
Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow should return for September starts, though in terms of impact guys who have yet to debut, De Leon is the clear guy to target.

Yasiel Puig you ask? I suspect he'll get called back up, but the Dodgers will also be getting Andre Ethier (leg) back as well and possibly Trayce Thompson (back). They also have Wednesday's hero Andrew Toles who is worthy of additional playing time, so I'm not seeing a lot of value for Puig in 2017.