Regan's Rumblings: Is it Real or Just a Mirage?

Happy Acuna Week, everyone. The "short-awaited" debut of Ronald Acuna, baseball's consensus No. 1 overall prospect, came Wednesday. Acuna got off to a slow start in Triple-A, but in his last four games with Gwinnet, he went 7-for-15 with a pair of walks and three stolen bases (all in the same game). Expectations are sky high, but Acuna just turned 20 (December), and we have to think there will be an adjustment period at the plate.

A .305/.374/.475 hitter in the minors, Acuna should be an immediate boost to fantasy owners in the stolen bases category. His power upside is thought to be 30-plus, but he's probably more in the 15-20 range this early in his career given he's still filling out his body. Acuna played left field and batted sixth in his first two games with the Braves, meaning at least initially, Preston Tucker, and not Nick Markakis, is the fourth outfielder. Tucker is just 8-for-48 after a hot start. Obviously grab Acuna in the off chance he's available in your 12-team mixed league. He really shouldn't be available anywhere.

Acuna went 1-for-5 with a run and two strikeouts in his debut. He looked pretty hyped up in his first couple at-bats, hitting the first pitch each time. Thursday, he hit a 416-foot bomb in his first at-bat for his first major league home run. He also doubled and reached on an infield single. He should settle in for a long and fruitful career.

Looking over splits to see who's done well the last couple weeks, not surprisingly, a fair number of surprises popped up. Let's look at 10 of these players and see if there's something notable to their recent run or whether this is simply a mirage.

Christian Villanueva, 3B, SD

Villanueva was 11-for-32 with four home runs in a brief stint with the Padres last year, but expecting him to start this year hitting .355/.444/.774 with seven home runs in 62 at-bats was a bit much. Villanueva did fare well in Triple-A last year, hitting .296/.369/.528 with 20 homers in 109 games, but he turns 27 in June and never was a highly rated prospect. Now, however, he's the Padres' everyday third baseman, supplanting the likes of Chase Headley and Cory Spangenberg, the former a highly paid veteran, the latter once drafted No. 10 overall. Villanueva's start looks like a bit of a fluke when you consider a 29.2 K%, but he has absolutely crushed lefties (DFS alert) with a 1.759 OPS and six homers in just 25 at-bats. Against RHP he's no easy out either at .270/.400/.459. From the perspective of his batted ball data, Villanueva is no fluke, considering his low 29.3 GB% and 19.7 degrees launch angle (31st in the league). Good things happen when you put the ball in the air, though clearly, we have to think his career 40.7 percent HR/FB rate (11 percent is about average) will drop. If he can make some adjustments and lower the rate at which he swings at pitches outside the zone (40.4 vs. a 29.2 percent league average), maybe he can cut down on the strikeouts and maintain a solid batting average.

Verdict: Power is real, but batting average is not.

Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA

In our staff league I elected to not extend a $1 free-agent-to-be Haniger, which would have allowed me to gain one extra year of control per $5 added to his salary, and I may come to regret that. My rationale was that he was hurt a lot last year, didn't run as much as I thought he would and is not exactly an established star. This year, though, Haniger is batting .321/.389/.621 with eight homers and one steal already and he just homered in four consecutive games. Haniger has put up monster minor league numbers, so maybe this really is an age-27 breakout. He's walking at a nice clip and is tied for second in the AL in both home runs and RBI (24). Even if he doesn't keep this up, if, considering his home park, Haniger plays 150-plus games, a .290-30-100 season is not unreasonable.

Verdict: Minus a few points of batting average, I'm a fan.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC

I'd like to see a bigger sample size, but Schwarber does appear to still be useless against LHP, going 1-for-13 against them so far. His splits against righties are a different story, however – .360/.458/.760 with six homers in 50 at-bats. He's maintained his usual excellent walk rate (16 percent), but Schwarber has also cut way down on the strikeouts – from 30.9 to 24 percent – and he's hitting the ball harder. Curiously, though, Schwarber has seen his FB% drop year-over-year from 46.5 way down to 31.1 percent this year, so the inflated 42.9 percent HR/FB rate is an indicator of a potential coming power outage. I don't typically believe in the "best shape of their life" stories as correlating to production on the field, but he's noticeably slimmer and maybe that's helping. Laying off bad pitches is also helping, and I've seen him hit to the opposite field to foil the shift a couple times, so I'm liking the new approach.

Verdict: He's not a .300 hitter, but he's also going to easily exceed last year's .211 mark. I'll say .265 with 25 homers the rest of the way along with plenty of walks.

C.J. Cron, 1B, TB

I'm sure the Angels would be open to a Pujols for Cron trade right about now, but, I don't blame them for getting rid of Cron given the presence of Pujols and the need to slot Ohtani at DH. Cron is hitting .273/.321/.506 with five homers overall and .304/.365/.589 the last couple weeks. A major red flag is his 24:2 K:BB (2.4 BB%, 28.6 K%), but fantasy owners have to be pleased nonetheless. Cron has never been able to hold down an everyday role with any sort of consistency, but he's getting a real shot with the Rays, and perhaps that's going to pay off. Fellow first baseman Brad Miller is hitting just .184 and there are no viable competitors for DH at-bats, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts once pitchers adjust to his recent outburst.

Verdict: He was the 2011 No. 17 overall pick, and I like the chances of formerly highly rated players breaking out later in their careers. I think he can hit .260 the rest of the way and finish with 25 home runs.

Mark Canha, OF, OAK

I bid $11 in FAAB in our 18-team mixed staff league last week and was a bit surprised that the second highest and only other bid was for $1. Sure, a $2 Canha would have been much nicer, but even at the highest price, I'm getting a player who entered Thursday hitting .341/.400/.634 with three home runs in 41 at-bats. Canha is 29 and has had plenty of Triple-A success dating back to 2014, but he's yet to stick in what is now his fourth big-league season. Canha has battled back and wrist issues the last couple years, so perhaps he's simply healthy now and showing off his talent. He's usually exhibited strong ratios in Triple-A, including a 19.6 K% and 10.7 BB% last year while showing 20-plus home run power, so he does have some talent. Canha likely has at least until Boog Powell (knee) returns in about three weeks, but the A's could just as easily shift Matt Joyce to a bench role or another team to clear a spot for Canha.

Verdict: If the 8.9 BB% is real, Canha should accumulate 500-plus PA and hit .270-plus with 20 home runs by year's end.

Rick Porcello, SP, BOS

After a disastrous 2017 in which Porcello posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, Porcello looks to have returned to his 2016 Cy Young form. Through five starts, four of the "QS" variety, Porcello has a 1.93 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. The strikeout rate would easily be a career high, and Porcello's walk rate is even better than the 1.3 mark he posted in 2016. With an elite lineup around him, Porcello is already 4-0, so another 20-win season looks possible. He's returned to his ground ball ways with a 51.7 GB%, and after his hard-hit rate jumped to 38.3 percent last year, that mark has plummeted to 24.4 percent in 2018. All signs appear to be pointing up for a pitcher who has made 27-33 starts in each of his nine big league seasons.

Verdict: It's hard to doubt him the way he's keeping the ball on the ground and in the strike zone.

Nick Pivetta, SP, PHI

After struggling to a 6.02 ERA in 26 starts with the Phillies last year, Pivetta made a genius move. He got advice from Aaron Nola and made some adjustments to his curveball that have paid huge dividends early. Pivetta has a 1.88 ERA in his last four starts and a 2.57 mark overall to go with a 28:4 K:BB in 28 innings overall. Clearly that's a 9.0 K/9, which is down a bit from last year's 9.5 mark, but what else is down is his walk rate. Pivetta has never been much of a control artist and his 3.9 BB/9 last year reflects that, but this year he's at a measly 1.3. His hard-hit rate is way down and is among the league's best at 22.4 percent as he's using the new, improved and harder curveball (up 3 mph) to induce the weaker contact as well as more swings and misses (11.2 percent swinging strike rate versus last year's 8.7 percent. We can't completely discount the possibility that the 2017 Pivetta rears its head again.

Verdict: Pivetta has faced a weak schedule (Atlanta twice, PIT, CIN and Miami), but the new curveball has had a big impact and should continue to help him. Pivetta has posted strong numbers in the upper minors the last couple years and should be OK to forecast him with a sub-4.00 ERA and a fair number of strikeouts the rest of the way.

Sean Manaea, SP, OAK

We know about the no-hitter, but this isn't some fluke a la Dallas Braden's perfect game. Manaea did that against the elite Red Sox offense (second in the league in runs), and he's yet to allow more than two runs in a start this year. Manaea sports a 1.23 ERA and microscopic 0.60 WHIP and though a 7.4 K/9 has led to a 3.55 FIP, Manaea's 1.5 BB/9 has certainly helped. That's a huge improvement over last year's 3.1 mark, a year in which Manaea recorded a 4.37 ERA in 29 starts. Other than the WHIP and ERA, the other number that jumps out is a .141 BABIP. That's certainly not sustainable, particularly given his hard-hit rate is merely average at 34.4 percent. He's also lost a little more than one mph on his fastball, though that's nothing to be too alarmed about.

Verdict: Yeah, we know this one isn't going to last. The control is good to see, but Manaea isn't going to overpower anyone and his BABIP will come back to earth. I'd probably sell high if I could, though flukes don't exactly no-hit teams like Boston.

Mike Clevinger, SP, CLE

A 10.1 K/9 and 3.11 ERA in 121.2 innings last year combined with a strong spring and a great head of hair had Clevinger on many a preseason sleeper list and he's delivered. Through four starts, Clevinger has a 1.75 ERA, though he's yet to record more than five strikeouts in any start and his K/9 is 6.0. Clevinger has a career 9.2 K/9 in 200.1 career big league innings, so the strikeout rate will most certainly increase, and his 2.8 BB/9 is encouraging given his pre-2018 4.6 career rate. Clevinger's 3.32 FIP is probably more in line with what we can expect the rest of the way, but I could see an ERA in the low 3s given the coming improvement in his strikeout rate as well as the improved control.

Verdict: Expect a 3.25 ERA and a K/9 in the 8.5 range the rest of the way. I see him finishing with 180 innings of 3.20 ERA ball and 170 strikeouts.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD

Ryu posted a 3.17 ERA in 56 starts from 2013-14 before injuries struck and he missed most of the following two seasons but rebounded with a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts last year. Ryu is off to a great start this year with a 1.99 ERA in four starts. In his last three starts he's been even better, posting a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings with a 25:4 K:BB. On the year, Ryu has been dominant with a 10.7 K/9, and if he can continue to limit the free passes, an ERA in the low 3s, if not better, should be a lock. Ryu is generating more ground balls (52.9 versus 45.1 percent last season) and he's generating weaker contact with a 31.4 percent hard-hit rate, which is way down from last year's 36.2 percent. Ryu continues to get by with an 89-91 mph fastball, but given he's done well with that velocity in the past, a healthy Ryu looks to be a pretty good pitcher. Most pitchers struggle mightily after labrum surgery, but after two long years of recovery, Ryu is starting to look like one of the lucky ones, though probably remains more of a health risk than other hurlers.

Verdict: Cautious optimism that this is for real. If Ryu is healthy enough to make 30 starts, we could see him finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA and 170 strikeouts.