This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
As we mourn the likely demise of Bartolo Colon's career, here are a few highlights to bring some joy to your day:
"The impossible has happened" – doesn't Vin Scully own the copyright to this? Listen to the announcer who calls it one of the "greatest moments in baseball history".
I'd give him the hit on this
It's been fun Bartolo, even though you stole a Cy Young trophy from Johan Santana.
I have been thinking about this for a while, but are we at a tipping point in terms of the value of advanced metrics? Do xFIP, SIERA, hard hit rate, launch angle, and BABIP really hold any sort of predictive value or are they simply ways to explain what has happened in the past? I'm starting to think it's more the latter at this point. I've published more than one piece touting xFIP versus ERA as a way to identify pitchers to target or avoid going forward. Look at Jason Vargas this year as an example. He's been great, posting a 2.08 ERA with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. His xFIP however sits at 4.39, suggesting that he's due for significant regression. We can probably all agree that Vargas' end-of-year ERA will be higher than 2.08, but how much higher? Is he a 2.50 ERA guy? 3.50? We don't really know. Guys outperform or underperform their xFIP all the time (look at Ricky Nolasco historically).
As we mourn the likely demise of Bartolo Colon's career, here are a few highlights to bring some joy to your day:
"The impossible has happened" – doesn't Vin Scully own the copyright to this? Listen to the announcer who calls it one of the "greatest moments in baseball history".
I'd give him the hit on this
It's been fun Bartolo, even though you stole a Cy Young trophy from Johan Santana.
I have been thinking about this for a while, but are we at a tipping point in terms of the value of advanced metrics? Do xFIP, SIERA, hard hit rate, launch angle, and BABIP really hold any sort of predictive value or are they simply ways to explain what has happened in the past? I'm starting to think it's more the latter at this point. I've published more than one piece touting xFIP versus ERA as a way to identify pitchers to target or avoid going forward. Look at Jason Vargas this year as an example. He's been great, posting a 2.08 ERA with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. His xFIP however sits at 4.39, suggesting that he's due for significant regression. We can probably all agree that Vargas' end-of-year ERA will be higher than 2.08, but how much higher? Is he a 2.50 ERA guy? 3.50? We don't really know. Guys outperform or underperform their xFIP all the time (look at Ricky Nolasco historically). On the hitting side, if I guy has hit the ball hard more than in the past, will he continue to do so the next three-plus months? Maybe, maybe not.
I think we should take a step back and really look at what are some simple, key factors/stats that go into whether I'm buying what I'm seeing in front of me. I do think things like xFIP and hard hit rate for example are worth a look as indicators that perhaps we should dig deeper on some players, but for me, here is what I'm considering as key factors in hitter and pitcher valuation:
Hitters – Strikeout rate (K%), Walk rate (BB%), Isolated Slugging (ISO), and intangibles (swing path, new approach, new training regimen, etc.)
Pitchers – Strikeout rate (K%), Walk rate (BB%), groundball rate (GB%), velocity, and intangibles (mechanical adjustment, new pitch, new pitch mix, new training regimen, etc.)
With that in mind, here are a few cherry-picked guys I wanted to highlight:
Hitters
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR
Smoak is on pace for 42 home runs and 110 RBI which is even more insane given that his career highs in those areas are 20 and 50. Smoak is batting .287/.349/.574 in what is looking like that rare breakout season from a 30-year-old former failed prospect. The switch-hitting Smoak seems to have made particularly notable adjustments versus southpaws, against whom he is a career .232/.298/.383 hitter. This year? .390/.459/.707. That all said, what has me buying what he's selling is the notable improvement in his strikeout rate. Prior to 2017, Smoak had seen his K% increase for four consecutive seasons, peaking at 32.8% last year. This year Smoak has that down to a remarkable 18.2%. We're not sure why he didn't think of this three years ago, but Smoak has come out and said that he's watching more video and focusing on making better contact and it's working. Smoak also struck out just 13% of the time in May, so this isn't just a one-month early-season improvement. Smoak has never hit above .238 in a single season, so when projecting him over the rest of this year, you can't ignore 2,900 pre-2017 plate appearances, but the improvement looks to be real and sustainable.
Alex Gordon, OF, KC
This one is tough to explain with any sort of authority. Gordon is walking 10.1% of the time (in line with prior years) and year-over-year, he's cut his K% from 29.2% to 17.2%, but the net has been an ugly .174/.286/.209, including no home runs in 199 plate appearances. He's dealt with a groin injury at times, but that still doesn't explain the lack of production. Could a recent stint on the paternity list be a factor? We tend to think of these guys as super-human machines incapable of being affected by things going on in their personal lives, but athletes are human too. There's no evidence to suggest this is a factor, but something to perhaps consider. Gordon looks to be a player who should change his approach. In each of this previous two seasons, Gordon posted a 1.0 GB/FB ratio. This year he's hitting 1.8 ground balls per fly ball, a massive difference. His hard hit rate is way down at 27.7% and his BABIP is just .219. It's not a huge stretch to say Gordon will be better the rest of the way, but how much better? I don't have a real sense historically of hitters making significant in-season adjustments that result in massive improvement, so I just can't be optimistic at all here. Maybe he hits what he hit last year (.220/.312/.380) the rest of the way this year, but if there are notable improvements, it's tough to see them coming in time to make any difference in 2017. I do wonder whether he's nursing some sort of injury.
Whit Merrifield, 2B, KC
Here's another guy who has significantly cut his strikeout rate. Merrifield fanned in 21.7% of his plate appearances for the Royals last year and so far this year is at just 12.8%. The result: an improvement in his slash line from .283/.323/.392 to .296/.348/.479. The average is marginally better and his BB% improvement is a modest .7% (up to 6.4%), but the noticeable improvement is the jump in his power. Merrifield has a .183 ISO compared to last year's .109. Between Triple-A and KC, Merrifield already had nine homers (six in the big leagues) versus 10 all last year. In 488 career plate appearances now, Merrifield is a career .287/.331/.419 hitter, so that's enough for me to feel confident he can hit in the .280s at the big league level. That just leaves his power potential the open question. Merrifield's HR/FB rate is a reasonable 13.6%, so no worries there. He does appear to be doing a better job putting the ball in the air, as his fly ball rate has improved over last year's low 29.8% to an improved 36.7% this year. I'm not convinced he's a 20+ homer guy this year, but Merrifield is looking good enough to make me wonder whether I should drop Roughned Odor for him in a relatively shallow OBP league.
Other guys who have cut down on the strikeouts (K/9 year-over-year decrease in parentheses):
Mark Trumbo (6.6) – Trumbo with a sub-20% K% (18.9%)? Yes, indeed. It doesn't do much to change his value, but at least we don't to worry about a Gallo-like batting average.
Michael Saunders (5.6) – Overall a disappointing year, but with a lower K%, perhaps there's hope.
Anthony Rizzo (4.8) – An 11.2% K% with his power is impressive.
Anthony Rendon (3.8) – I just think a huge year is in order, but not sure when.
Pitchers
On the pitching side, I put a lot of weight on changes in velocity, strikeout rate, and control (as measured by BB/9). Typically, hitters have about 0.4 seconds to recognize the type of pitch, whether it's a ball or strike, and then swing in time to make solid contact. Personally I think I'd need about five times that, but anyway, it's simple to conclude that any incremental increase in velocity will give hitters less time to perform those tasks and all else equal, make the pitcher more successful than if he were throwing less hard. Now we know that velocity is measured differently now, with 0.6 mph being floated as the difference, meaning that a fastball measured at 91.6 mph this year is equivalent to a 91.0 mph fastball last year.
Chase Anderson, SP, MIL
Anderson was the main piece in the deal that sent Jean Segura to Arizona, and after posting a 4.39 ERA for the Brewers last year, this is a deal that's looking far better for Milwaukee this season. Anderson is 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.26 WHIP to go with an 8.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. His average fastball velocity is up 1.8 mph over last year, so even accounting for the measurement change outlined above, he's clearly throwing harder. The control still isn't where it needs to be, but he's also cut his HR/9 from 1.66 per nine to 0.72 this year. His hard hit rate has gone down a little, but the fly ball rate is about the same and he may be getting a bit lucky given his low 7.0% HR/FB rate, a number that sits at 12.4% for his career. I'm pretty lukewarm on Anderson. Miller Park has graded as an extreme hitter's park the past few years, so maintaining his 2.12 home ERA seems unrealistic. The control isn't elite, and I think the home runs are likely to come with more frequency. The velocity increase does alleviate some of my concerns, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a 4+ ERA the rest of the way.
Jimmy Nelson, SP, MIL
I was going to write about Lance McCullers' BB/9 improvement from 5.0 to 2.7 year over year, but McCullers gets enough attention. Nelson has seen his rate drop similarly from 4.3 to a stellar 2.2 this year. His fastball velocity is also up from 93.1 mph to 94.0 mph, a modest increase given the measurement change, but an increase nonetheless. The big change that's led to his 3.36 ERA however, has been the improvement in his control. He's even walked just two batters over his last 26 innings (four starts), so we could be seeing a true breakout performance from Chase Anderson's running mate. No wonder the Brewers are still competitive. Nelson was the Brewers' #1 prospect as recently as 2013, and perhaps after 500+ big league innings, things have clicked for the 28-year-old. I'm more optimistic on him than Anderson. Seeing him outpitch Clayton Kershaw in an 11-K masterpiece last time out could be clouding my judgment, but then again, his ERA over his last six starts is just 1.77.
Sean Manaea, SP, OAK
Zack Greinke has seen his K/9 jump from 7.6 to 10.1 year-over-year, but Greinke is 100% owned in fantasy leagues and is probably a top-10 pitcher right now. Dipping down a bit further, Manaea has improved his rate from 7.7 to 10.1, so he's deserving of a deeper look. Manaea has a so-so 3.81 ERA, but his 1.05 WHIP is strong, as is his strikeout rate. In addition, Manaea has a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts, and those opponents weren't chumps – in Yankee Stadium, in Cleveland, and home against an improving Blue Jays squad. The lefty has notably improved his GB% from 44.2% to 49.6% year-over-year, and perhaps most interesting is that he's now throwing his plus-slider 21.1% of the time this year versus just 12.9% a year ago. Manaea's 3.6 BB/9 could use some improvement, but given he posted a 2.2 mark last year and has put up a 1.8 total in his last four starts, it looks as if his control is taking a step forward. I am pretty optimistic on Manaea. Not a bad return for a couple of months of Ben Zobrist.
Other pitchers with a jump in strikeouts (K/9 increase year-over year in parentheses):
Trevor Bauer (3.2) – Still too erratic for me.
Zack Greinke (2.8) – Top-10 pitcher and an ace again.
Trevor Cahill (2.1) – Cautiously optimistic.
Martin Perez (1.9) – 6.6 K/9 still low, but he could really break out in a couple of years. Not yet though.
Luis Severino (1.6) – Developed into a solid starter after a tough 2016.
Other pitchers with a notable velocity increase (mph year-over-year increase in parentheses):
Yovani Gallardo (2.8) – Biggest increase, but tough to trust this guy.
Tyler Chatwood (2.3) – 4.4 BB/9 isn't going to help. I'd look elsewhere.
Alex Wood (2.2) – Health is the big concern, but he's pitched like a top-15 starter.
Michael Wacha (1.5) – Not the same guy recently, but I do still like him.
Martin Perez (1.3) – Him again? Interesting.
Other pitchers with a notable control improvement (year-over-year BB/9 improvement in parentheses):
Brandon McCarthy (3.5) – Best improvement in the league and looks like a solid No. 3 starter when healthy. Note this is pre-Tuesday's start.
Clayton Richard (1.8) – Up and down all year, but in this park, he could post a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way.
Nate Karns (1.7) – When healthy, I like him.
Patrick Corbin (1.1) – Control improving post-Tommy John. Velocity also up a little, so I like him a bit as a 2018 sleeper.
