Regan's Rumblings: Closing Time

July 31 is one of my favorite days of the year and this year it helped blunt the drudgery of having to go back to work after a week's vacation. The action seemed a bit muted this year, as while guys like Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish were dealt, the biggest bat to switch uniforms may have been Jonathan Lucroy who is a shell of his former self this season. A bevy of relievers were dealt, but the stunner was the just under the wire acquisition of Darvish by the Dodgers. As an LA fan, I spent the 10 minutes between 12:55 PST and 1:05 PST lamenting that the big move was Tony Watson, a move that would have been awesome in 2015 but is more "meh" at this point. That is, until the news broke that the Dodgers had acquired Yu Darvish, whose fantasy value gets a nice boost with the move to Dodger Stadium and the National League. Where we saw the most movement was in the relief market, so let's look through all 30 teams' bullpen situations and sort out who's doing what…

Locked in closers

Baltimore Orioles – Zach Britton – Sorry Brad Brach owners, but Britton is sticking around barring an unexpected waiver deal.

Boston Red Sox – Craig Kimbrel – Blew a couple of saves in July, but still has a 1.24 ERA, 16.5 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9. He'll get some Cy Young consideration, though he has a teammate that probably wins it.

Colorado Rockies – Greg Holland – He's on pace to approach 50 saves after not pitching at all last year due to Tommy John surgery. 4.2 BB/9 isn't great, but he's still been one of fantasy's bigger bargains.

Houston Astros – Ken Giles – Giles owners are breathing a sigh of relief after the team's failed efforts at trading for someone like Zach Britton. He's allowed just two runs in his last 14.1 innings.

Chicago Cubs – Wade Davis – Velocity is down for the second consecutive season and his 4.3 BB/9 would be a career-worst, but still has a 2.00 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 22 saves, and zero blown saves. New teammate Justin Wilson may get the occasional save based on matchups, but the job is Davis'.

Cincinnati Reds – Raisel Iglesias – He's not your typical closer given his ability to record more than three outs at a time. Iglesias has improved the average velocity on his fastball from 93.1 mph to 96.5 mph year over year, leading to a 1.95 ERA and career-best 10.8 K/9. The walks are a bit high at 3.2 BB/9, but guys like Michael Lorenzen and Drew Storen aren't threats to poach saves.

Cleveland Indians – Cody Allen – It's not Allen's fault he has recorded just 19 saves, as he's been generally solid all year with a 2.74 ERA and one blown save to go with an 11.8 K/9. Andrew Miller is a pretty good Plan B, but Allen should continue to be the guy in the ninth inning.

LA Dodgers – Kenley Jansen – Jansen has allowed nine hits and walked two in his last 7.2 innings, so for him, he's in a slump. Still, a 69:4 K:BB in 46.1 innings is pretty solid.

New York Yankees – Aroldis Chapman – The Yankees have a bevy of ninth inning options, but this job is all Chapman's. He's been a fantasy disappointment having dealt with a sore shoulder and recording juts 13 saves with a 2.97 RA and 1.25 WHIP. Chapman is still averaging 99.9 mph with his fastball, so velocity is not an issue and he's yet to allow a home run, but his 3.6 BB/9 is a bit elevated and he's been far more hittable this year, perhaps due in part to a .385 BABIP. All that aside, it would take several meltdowns for Dellin Betances or David Robertson to take over.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Felipe Rivero – Along with Taylor Hearn (Pirates' #5 prospect), Rivero represents a massive return on last year's Mark Melancon trade. Rivero has been one of baseball's better relievers, posting a 0.67 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 with a fastball that averages 98.5 mph compared to last year's 95.8 mph. Rivero took over the closer role from Tony Watson in June and is unlikely to relinquish it any time soon.

San Diego Padres – Brad Hand – We don't know what the offers were that San Diego received for Hand last month, but it was still surprising that the Padres didn't cash in while his value was at its peak. He's now officially the team's closer after the deal sending Brandon Maurer to KC, and with a 2.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9, Hand should be very successful in his role. Kirby Yates (2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) is next in line.

Toronto Blue Jays – Roberto Osuna – Osuna has notched back-to-back losses in his last two outings, causing his ERA to jump from 1.91 to 2.86. Still, a 12.3 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 are elite ratios, so unless there's a physical issue, he'll get plenty of rope. Should Osuna need to be replaced, Ryan Tepera looks to be next in line.

Probably locked-in closers

Arizona Diamondbacks – Fernando Rodney – Through no fault of his own, Rodney hasn't notched a save since July 7, but at least lately, he's making headway on his ERA, lowering it from 5.64 to 5.08 over his last four appearances. He's still got the closer fastball (94.9 mph average), but as usual we're seeing poor control (4.8 BB/9) and high blow-up potential. The Diamondbacks brought in David Hernandez at the trade deadline, but Archie Bradley (1.50 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) would likely be next in line to close.

Kansas City Royals – Kelvin Herrera – A 1.7 HR/9 is to blame for Herrera's 4.07 ERA, but his 1.24 WHIP is also relatively poor and his K/9 (9.0) and BB/9 (2.6) are both well off last year's marks of 10.8 and 1.5 respectively. Brandon Mauer would likely take over should Herrera falter more than he has already.

Milwaukee Brewers – Corey Knebel – The Brewers acquired Anthony Swarzak last month, but he doesn't appear to be any sort of threat to Knebel's job. Knebel is riding a 97.1 mph average fastball to a 1.68 ERA, 15.8 K/9, and 18 saves since taking over as closer back in May. His 5.4 BB/9 however is a real concern, as if he goes on a three-game run where he's walking the house, his job could eventually be in jeopardy. It probably won't happen, but that's a lot of walks.

New York Mets – A.J. Ramos – A 3.98 ERA and 5.1 BB/9 will leave plenty of Mets' fans cringing when Ramos enters the game in the ninth inning with a one-run lead. Jeurys Familia (shoulder) could return later this month, but at this point it seems unlikely he'd be closing games in 2017.

Philadelphia Phillies – Hector Neris – Neris has a 2.03 ERA since June 21, so he's pretty locked in despite a so-so 1.22 WHIP. Luis Garcia notched his first save on July 23, but that was likely due to Neris having pitched the prior two days.

Tampa Bay Rays – Alex Colome – Colome has netted his owners a nice return given his 30 saves, but it's been a rocky path to that number given his 3.59 ERA and 1.34 WIHP. The velocity is there (95 mph average fastball), but his stuff just isn't as sharp this year. Colome's K/9 has plummeted from 11.3 to 7.7 year over year and his swinging strike rate has dipped from 15.1% to 12.2%. He's not in danger of losing his job by any means, but keep an eye on Tommy Hunter should Colome struggle.

Seattle Mariners – Edwin Diaz – It's been a bumpy ride, but Diaz has allowed two runs and struck out 16 in his last 10 innings, so he should have plenty of security despite those runs coming in two of his last four outings. Diaz has been touched for eight homers in just 44.2 innings, but none of those eight came in July, so that shouldn't be a big issue going forward. He has an element of risk, but also has top-10 closer upside. David Phelps appears to be next in line.

Shaky Situations

LA Angels – Bud Norris – In his three appearances prior to the July 31 trade deadline, Norris allowed eight runs and walked six while retiring just four hitters. My educated guess is that those numbers severely limited any sort of trade interest teams may have previously had. If you're a Norris owner, you probably should just be happy with the 16 saves he's already provided, but it's probably not quite time to drop him. So who's next man up? Blake Parker has a 2.14 ERA, 11.9 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9, so he has closer credentials (at least this year). There's also Cam Bedrosian, who assumedly is the closer of the future, but he's seen his ERA jump from 1.69 to 4.64 over his last three appearances. Kenyon Middleton has also showed some promise, but he has a 4.50 ERA. Finally, Huston Street will be back from a groin injury at some point. Bottom line: Norris is still the closer, but he's on shaky ground. If you're looking to speculate, I'd look at the other options in his order of preference: Parker, Bedrosian, Middleton, Street.

Miami Marlins – Brad Ziegler – The deal sending A.J. Ramos to the Mets leaves the door wide open for Ziegler to step in as closer. One problem: Ziegler has a 6.53 ERA and 1.83 WHIP with a whopping 40 hits allowed in 29 innings, 5.3 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9. Kyle Barraclough would seem to be next in line, but he's on the DL indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jarlin Garcia could be Plan C, but this one is pretty much up in the air at this point with Ziegler as the likely preferred option for now.

Oakland A's – Santiago Casilla – With a 4.42 ERA and six blown saves, Casilla is on thin ice at best. With Sean Doolitle and Ryan Madson shipped off to Washington, Casilla's competition appears to have been whittled down, but Blake Treinen recorded the save on Monday and could be the team's new closer. His 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP are ugly numbers, but Treinen has allowed just one run with a 10:2 K:BB in his last 9.1 innings, so maybe he's figured things out. I'd grab Treinen in all formats right now.

San Francisco Giants – Sam Dyson – Mark Melancon could return as early as next weekend from an elbow injury, so Dyson's time in this role is likely to be short-lived. In the off chance that some team claims Melancon's contract on waivers this month, Dyson could see saves later in the year, but Melancon should be back soon assuming his rehab assignment goes well.

St. Louis Cardinals – Trevor Rosenthal – Rosenthal has taken his ERA down to 3.43 via 11.2 innings of one-run ball and he appears to be the team's closer given he's recorded saves in back-to-back outings. A 14.4 K/9 and 98.7 mph average fastball give Rosenthal closer credentials, but with a career 4.0 BB/9 (3.6 this year), he's far from a lock to keep the job for the rest of the season. Seung Hwan Oh would be next in line to (re)take the closer job should Rosenthal falter.

Who knows?

Atlanta Braves – Jim Johnson has blown three of his last seven chances to give him eight blown saves on the year, and he's reportedly going to share the closer position with Arodys Vizcaino going forward. This could be a changing of the guard situation, but Vizcaino has allowed four runs in his last five innings, so the competition likely remains open. Expect each guy to get chances over the next couple weeks, with the guy who's
pitching best eventually taking over full-time closer duties. Edge: Vizcaino.

Chicago White Sox – With their top two relievers now wearing pinstripes, Tyler Clippard appears to be the first man up, though with the Sox in rebuilding status, I'd expect other guys to get a look down the stretch. Juan Minaya (5.01 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9) is one option, but don't sleep on Jake Petricka, who has a 7.24 ERA, but three scoreless innings since coming off the DL.

Detroit Tigers – With Justin Wilson traded and Francisco Rodriguez long gone, Shane Greene gets first crack at the closer job in Detroit. Greene has a respectable 2.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and he's working on a string of 10.2 scoreless innings. Green's 4.9 BB/9 is well below average, leaving him vulnerable to being replaced at some point. Next in line could be Daniel Stumpf (2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9), but don't sleep on Joe Jimenez who could be the team's closer of the future and maybe soon, the present. Jimenez had a 1.44 ERA and 13.0 K/9 in Triple-A, though he's off to a rough start as a big leaguer.

Minnesota Twins - This one is about as wide open as closer situations get. With Brandon Kintzler now in Washington, lefty Taylor Rogers is expected to get first crack at this job. His ERA sits at 3.79, but his 7.1 K/9 points to a lack of dominant stuff. That's certainly shown up in his results recently, as in his last five appearances covering three total innings, Rogers has surrendered nine runs. Tyler Duffey has a 4.50 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but he may be next in line, and even Matt Belisle (yes, he's still in the league) could get a look. Trevor HIldenberger (3.12 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9) could be a sleeper, but he's averaging just 88.3 mph with this fastball, so his numbers could potentially go south quickly.

Texas Rangers – After allowing five runs (just one earned) in a July 19 game, Matt Bush and his 1.51 WHIP appear to be buried on the closer depth chart. Right now, there's no clear closer, with Alex Claudio, Jose Leclerc, and Keone Kela all potential candidates. Claudio looks to be the guy for now, but his 86.5 mph fastball and 5.3 K/9 inspire little confidence, though he has had MLB success in each of the past three seasons and owns a 2.73 career ERA. Leclerc has the mid-90s fastball and 13.5 K/9, but a 6.0 BB/9 is troubling. Kela just came off the DL, but he may be the best long-term bet should he improve upon a 4.2 BB/9. For now, it's Claudio in shallower leagues, but all three guys are worth a spot in deeper formats.

Washington Nationals – The Nationals' top three relievers weren't even on the team on July 15, but a pair of deals with the A's and more recently, Minnesota, improved the back end considerably. As of today, I'd rank them in terms of save chances the rest of the way as follows: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and Brandon Kintzler. Doolittle has one ugly three-run outing as a National, but he's already notched four saves and has elite ratios on the year (12.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9). All three guys are worth rostering in deep formats, but Doolittle is the guy for now.