Regan’s Rumblings: Dollar or Less Sleeper Picks

Welcome to the first 2016 edition of the former "Bats and Balls" column. In this space this season, I'll talk about anything on my mind that I think could lend at least some small degree of insight into your fantasy teams. Leading up to Opening Day, I'll have some sleepers- and busts-type thoughts, touch on some of my favorite prospects, and talk draft/auction strategy.

This week, I'm looking at some of the players in our draft rankings sheet who slot in at a dollar or less. Many of these guys won't be touched in 12-team mixed leagues with 25-man rosters, but in deeper leagues, success often hinges on hitting on one or more of these guys late in your draft or auction. Here are a handful that I like:

Brad Boxberger (RP, TB)

We probably have Boxberger valued a bit low here, as with the trade sending Jake McGee to Colorado, this job is all Boxberger's. That said, Boxberger has also been mentioned prominently in trade discussions, so there's the very real possibility he'll move to a contender at some point this year, potentially leaving him void of any fantasy value if he's slotted in as a setup man. Boxberger, though, notched 41 saves last year despite a mediocre 3.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He did post a 10.6 K/9 while faltering with a 4.6 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Meanwhile, Alex Colome looms as a threat to Boxberger's job security, as the converted starter thrived in relief last year, posting a 44:7 K:BB in 40.2 innings while never allowing a home run. He's a great handcuff to Boxberger and solid speculative pickup in deeper formats.

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD)

It was a tale of two halves for Grandal, as he notched his first All-Star appearance by hitting .282/.401/.526 in the first half. A sore left shoulder led to this in the second half: .162/.280/.215. October shoulder surgery has Grandal healthy so far in camp, and with it seemingly likely that the injury contributed to his poor stretch run last season, he's looking like a good buy low candidate. With a career BB percentage in the 14 percent range, Grandal has far more value in OBP leagues, as his BA's the last two seasons are just .225 and .234. If healthy, he should be able to hit in the .250 range with perhaps a .370 OBP and 20-plus home runs, and those are top-10 catcher numbers these days. The key, though, is whether his shoulder is truly 100 percent and whether the 27-year-old can avoid other injuries.

Mark Canha (OF/1B, OAK)

Canha doesn't appear to have a path to regular playing time, but given the guys currently occupying the depth chart ahead of him, there's an opportunity for semi-regular at-bats for him. At first you have career underachiever Yonder Alonso. Khris Davis should play every day in left and/or DH. Billy Butler and Chris Coghlan are in the mix as well, but other than Davis, Canha is the most intriguing of the bunch. Granted, the .254/.315/.426 he hit last year in 441 at-bats isn't a huge line, but Canha did hit .280 after August 1, and you have to figure his reverse platoon splits could turn around. The right-handed hitter batted just .221/.278/.309 versus southpaws and .271/.335/.486 versus right-handers. Hopefully at some point the A's realize how pointless it is playing guys like Alonso and Butler ahead of Canha. Perhaps a big March will help.

Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR)

Pillar is competing with Michael Saunders for leadoff duties this spring, with both guys likely to be in the Opening Day lineup no matter how that competition turns out. In Pillar's favor is his speed, as he swiped 25 bases in 159 games last year with a career-high in the minors of 51 back in 2012. On the negative side of the ledger, Pillar's .314 OBP isn't ideal for a leadoff man and there doesn't appear to be much hope that his 4.5 percent BB% trends up significantly given his minor league rates in recent years are similarly low. He did however cut his strikeout rate to 13.5percent last year compared to 26.4 and 23 percent in previous MLB stints, so perhaps there's still hope he can push that OBP closer to .330. Saunders is off to a great start this spring (5-for-14 with three HR) while Pillar is 2-for-14, so this battle is far from over. Either way, in deeper leagues, Pillar can still put up 15 HR and 25 SB even hitting lower in the lineup, so he's certainly worth a late-round look.

Andrew Cashner (SP, SD)

Cashner made a career-high 31 starts last year, recording a 4.34 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 184.2 innings. Not the numbers we would have hoped for; we figured he had sub-3.00 ERA and 200-K potential if he could just stay healthy for a full season. Well that didn't quite work out. Cashner did have a solid 8.0 K/9 with a 3.2 BB/9. Cashner's disappointing season was due in large part to his struggles versus LH hitters who tagged him for 14 home runs and a .293 BA. If he can stay healthy and continue to develop his secondary offerings (particularly versus LH hitters) to go with his 94.8 mph average fastball, perhaps Cashner will finally prove at least somewhat worthy of being the return the Padres received by dealing Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs.

Roberto Osuna (RP, TOR)

It's assumed that Drew Storen was acquired to be the closer, either shifting Osuna to a setup role or potentially back to the rotation. Despite faltering a bit down the stretch (5.73 ERA in his final 12 games), Osuna was excellent last year, posting a 2.58 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 while featuring a fastball that averaged 95.6 mph. We expect the Blue Jays to name a closer in a week or so, and I'd assume it's Storen, but Osuna should still have some value in deeper leagues given his ability to post upward of 80 strikeouts, an ERA in the low 2s, and a sub 1.00 WHIP. In shallower formats, be ready to pounce on Osuna on the waiver wire should Storen falter or get hurt.

Ketel Marte (SS, SEA)

Marte's 247 PA debut at the age of 21 was pretty impressive last season, as the shortstop finished batting a solid .283/.351/.402 with a pair of home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 games. Project that out over 150 games and we could be looking at 25 stolen bases with a solid OBP and 75-plus runs scored. Marte is set to hit second behind Nori Aoki and in front of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, so if he can consistently get on base, Marte could provide a fair amount of positive value this year. He's not suddenly going to become a 10-plus HR guy, but I could certainly see him outperforming his 231 ADP.

Eugenio Suarez (SS, CIN)

Suarez will only qualify at shortstop initially, but he's expected to be option No.1 to replace All-Star and fan favorite Todd Frazier. He's never been a highly ranked prospect, and after hitting a so-so .280/.315/.446 with 13 home runs in 97 games last year, it's tough to see Suarez suddenly exploding into a 25-100 type guy. Suarez notched just 39 minor league home runs at a rate of one every 44 at-bats, so it's unlikely he'll ever be a 25 to 30 home run corner infielder, but a potential 20-homer guy who can qualify at multiple positions has plenty of value in deeper leagues.

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA)

Realmuto's last full minor league season came in Double-A back in 2014 during which he hit .289/.369/.461 with eight home runs in 375 at-bats. What made it look even better from a fantasy perspective was that Realmuto swiped 18 bases while fanning in just 13.9 percent of his PAs. Not surprisingly, the leap from Double-A to the big leagues was a major challenge, but even with a so-so .259/.290/.406 slash, Realmuto did blast 10 home runs while swiping eight bases. His 4.1 BB percentage left a lot to be desired, but striking out in 15 percent of his PAs was admirable, and entering his age-25 season, Realmuto could be primed for a step forward to 15 home runs, 10 steals and an average in the .260s. He's ranked as the No. 11 overall catcher, but if you can get him in say the 15th round in 12-team mixed leagues, he should provide solid value.

Max Kepler (OF, MIN)

Kepler is far from guaranteed a starting spot come Opening Day, but there's enough here to make him a late speculative pick in deeper formats. Miguel Sano has right field locked down, but while Byron Buxton certainly should be the center fielder, Buxton will need at least to hit a little this spring for the Twins to overlook last year's .209/.250/.326 in 46 games at the big league level. In left, you have Eddie Rosario who had 46 XBH and 11 SB in 122 games a year ago, but who also swung at everything (3.2 BB percentage) and struck out too frequently (24.9 K percentage), so he's far from a cornerstone. Meanwhile, Kepler hit a robust .322/.316/.531 with nine home runs, 32 doubles, 13 triples and 18 stolen bases last year for Double-A Chattanooga. The 6-foot-4 Kepler started playing baseball relatively late in Germany, so he's really still developing, but the opportunity is there for him to impress and win a job as early as Opening Day.

Jake McGee (RP, COL)

The Rockies look to be vying for last place with the Padres this year, but don't discount closers on bad teams, even if they pitch in Coors Field. In 2002, the Rockies went 73-89, but closer Jose Jimenez racked up 41 saves despite also going 2-10 with a 3.56 ERA and 5.8 K/9. McGee is a far better pitcher than Jimenez ever was, having posted a 10.8 K/9 or better in each of the last four years while improving his BB/9 to 1.9 last season. He does allow the ball to be hit in the air a bit (.95 GB/FB), but his stuff should still play fairly well in Coors. McGee does have a pair of setup men behind him with closer experience in Jason Motte and Chad Qualls, but all signs point to McGee as the team's closer come Opening Day. With experienced guys behind him, McGee will have to pitch well to keep his job, but he's capable of 40 saves, 90 strikeouts and a sub-2.00 ERA if he stays healthy.

Matt Moore (SP, TB)

Several years ago, I was able to acquire Stephen Strasburg straight up for Moore in a dynasty league – that's how well-regarded the southpaw was back in 2011. In fact, our 2012 player capsule read in part: "Don't be afraid to be aggressive in drafting him, the sky is the limit." Four years later, Moore has undergone Tommy John surgery, returning with mixed results (5.43 ERA in 12 starts) last season. Looking closer however, Moore's last four starts read as follows: 26.2 innings, 1.35 ERA and a 23:7 K:BB. He averaged 92 mph with his fastball, which is a couple ticks from his peak velocity in 2012, but it's still plenty enough. Moore's career 4.1 BB/9 is a sore spot, but if he can prove healthy, that's something that he should be able to improve upon. He may never be the ace we thought he could be five years ago, but he's a lock to open in the Rays' rotation, and given his ADP of 281, he's a nice late-round grab.

Hector Olivera (OF/3B, ATL)

Off to a nine-for-19 start this spring, Olivera remains a bit of an enigma, albeit one that the Braves are counting on as a middle-of-the-order type bat. He'll play the outfield this year but should qualify at third base in most leagues initially. Olivera batted just .253/.310/.405 in 87 at-bats for the Braves last year, but he was a .323/.407/.505 career hitter in Cuba, and while it remains to be seen how that translates, the Dodgers were willing to pay in excess of $60 million to find out, while the Braves were okay parting with young cost-controlled talent to fill a void in their lineup. Olivera is tough to project, but something in the .270-15-70 range looks reachable, and for a late-round pick (317 ADP), why not speculate?