This article is part of our Painting the Black series.
PAINTING THE BLACK: HANDICAPPING THE WILD CARD RACES
The second Wild Card. Say no more. Bud Selig will ride off into the sunset after this season and be able to hang his hat on one thing about changes to postseason baseball - he's kept fans watching until the very last game for the past few years. And then some.
The advent of an extra team from each league getting a chip and a chair at the October postseason table beginning in 2012 is pure genius in my mind for a couple reasons:
1) The entire season is back to priority #1 status. Whoever wins their respective divisions SHOULD have an advantage going into postseason play
2) "It's not over til it's over" - teams playing Game 162 as if it were Game 7 of the World Series... how much more thrilling can the final day of the regular season be than with a champagne shower on the line?
The highlights are endless:
- Baltimore's scintillating road victory over heavily favored Texas in the first AL Wild Card playoff in 2012.
- The Indians needing to win 10 straight, including the final game of the season in Minnesota to get in last year.
- The Tampa Bay Rays needing to play Game 163 in 2013 to even QUALIFY for the Wild Card playoff against Cleveland. Oh by the way, they needed a David Price game for the ages on the road in Texas for that additional regular season game... got on a plane to face the Tribe, where Alex Cobb shutout the Wahoos at home... only to get back on the bird and travel to Beantown to begin the ALDS... yes, on the road against the Red Sox.
- "The Blackout" in Pittsburgh last year where chants of "JOHNNY... JOHNNY" slammed through the stands of PNC Park as the Pirates won their first postseason game in over two decades over the Reds.
2014 is shaping up to be quite the similar thrilling tale: down to the wire, with every game feeling already like the playoff pandemonium is feverishly alive. Here's a handicapping of who will dogpile in the middle of the diamond:
NATIONAL LEAGUE: (as of September 19, 2014)
San Francisco (+2.0): San Diego (7), LA Dodgers (3)
Pittsburgh (-): Milwaukee (3), Atlanta (4), Cincinnati (3)
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Milwaukee (-3.5): Pittsburgh (3), Cincinnati (3), Chicago Cubs (3)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:
Considering the rotation is nothing close to what won them World Series titles in 2010 & 2012, the Giants are in prime position not only to capture home-field advantage for the Wild Card Playoff, but still stay within earshot of the Dodgers for the NL West crown. Their lone series against LA is sandwiched between a home and away series with San Diego, a team they've only gone 6-6 against while hitting a paltry .205 as a team. They've sputtered as a whole since the All-Star break, going 29-25 after starting 53-43.
With no Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum in the bullpen, September is not the month to go in the tank as a pitching staff either. The Giants, however, aren't gangbusters in that department either. They sport their worst team mark of the season thus far at a 5.07 ERA during the month. Oh, but how things change, things remain the same. Tim Hudson & Madison Bumgarner will come to the rescue along with Pablo Sandoval & Hunter Pence aiding Buster Posey to extend and escape. Don't expect this veteran bunch to falter with the finish line this close. Projected Final record (89-73, Wild Card #1).
PITTSBURGH PIRATES:
Boy this group couldn't have started a year any worse after coming off one of their most exciting seasons to date. A 9-16 April didn't bode well for a repeat to postseason glory, but the Buccos are primed for a strong finish. They righted their proverbial ship and posted a 47-35 mark from May 1st through August 1st.
Now comes the telling part - in a division led most of the season by Milwaukee, can the Pirates find enough offense to overcome the Brewers stalwart starting staff? The critical juncture comes in back-to-back series with the Brew Crew and an Atlanta Braves team with a favorable schedule to boot. I don't see the starting pitching of Pittsburgh able to sustain a good enough run to keep their postseason hopes afloat. Projected Final record (84-78).
MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
The clear-cut story of the year for the 1st half of 2014, the Brew Crew held baseball's record for a good portion of the early going. At one point, Wily Peralta, yes that's right, Wily Peralta, led all of baseball with 14 wins. Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez both were in the early conversations for NL MVP and the resident champion St. Louis Cardinals were nowhere to be found.
Fast forward to an awful July & August, a 22-30 record over those two months, and their division lead completely gone. Seemingly everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Beer Makers. September is a time of redemption and the Brewers are aligned perfectly to capitalize. The showdown with Pittsburgh will ultimately decide Milwaukee's postseason fate and I predict many Bernie Brewer bombs cascading all over PNC Park to forge them into the final Wild Card slot. Predicted Final record (85-77, Wild Card #2).
ATLANTA BRAVES:
"On life-support" is a good way to describe the Braves postseason outlook at this point, especially after the torrid start to 2014 this ballclub had at 17-8. It feels like the bottom fell out of the entire squad from that point forth. The pitching has been average. The hitting has been average. And their record? Well, 75-75 is just .. average. Only one remaining series against Pittsburgh puts any control of their destiny in their own hands, so Atlanta may possibly need to win out AND get help to realistically have a shot. Their offense will need to come back in a big way though, only averaging 2.5 runs per game in September. Predicted Final record (82-80)
AMERICAN LEAGUE: (as of September 19, 2014)
Kansas City (+0.5): Detroit (3), Cleveland (4*), Chicago White Sox (3)
Oakland (-): Philadelphia (3), LA Angels (3), Texas (4)
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Seattle (-1.0): Houston (3), Toronto (4), LA Angels (3)
Cleveland (-4.0): Minnesota (3), Kansas City (4*), Tampa Bay (3)
OAKLAND ATHLETICS:
At the trade deadline, with the acquisitions of Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester, the A's were all but a shoe-in to repeat as AL West champions: they had a healthy lead over the Angels and Mariners and arguably the best rotation in baseball with Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir. On the contrary, that's why they play the games. A 17-25 record since those trades spelled disaster for a team that paced the American League for nearly the entire season.
Ultimately, the trade of Yoenis Cespedes will loom large if the A's get bounced early from postseason play. Losing that dynamic of a power bat in the middle of a lineup filled with above average hitters is nothing to understate. Fortunately, a powder-puff schedule, besides three games with the Halos, helps Oakland back into hosting the Wild Card playoff. Predicted Final record (89-73, Wild Card #1).
KANSAS CITY ROYALS:
The AL Central, at the start of 2014, looked like the most winnable division it's been in almost 5 years. Detroit on paper felt vulnerable without Prince Fielder and a closer. Cleveland finished one game behind the Tigers and returned almost their entire team. The White Sox and Twins retooled via free agency to be dark-horse candidates.
Enter the Royals. Tearing through the heart of the American League after the All-Star break to the tune of 34-21, the Royals caught the Tigers, overtook them, and continue to go toe-to-toe for the Central title. Buoyed by James "Big Game" Shields and the best 1-2 bullpen punch of Wade Davis and Greg Holland, Kansas City put together enough offensive thump late in ballgames to create a devastating duo of pitching and hitting. The clock, however, may be striking midnight quicker than they think. The Tigers come to town for the Royals' last chance at unseating the defending Central champs, then travel for a tough 4-games-in-3-days trip in Cleveland. It's been a great story all season, but 2015 will have to be Kansas City's year. Projected Final record (87-75).
SEATTLE MARINERS:
Two words: King Felix. The odds-on-favorite for the AL Cy Young Award this year is reason #1 the Mariners can overtake the Royals for the second Wild Card spot. Reason #2? Free agent superstar Robinson Cano. After a sluggish start to the season, Cano reemerged close to the top of the AL batting race and helped lead Seattle's offense with unlikely startup and 2014 All Star Kyle Seager. Reason #3? Six games against the LA Angels, who've already clinched a playoff spot and will likely be getting their regulars some much needed rest for the postseason run.
The real backbone of the Mariners though is its starting staff, one of the deadliest on a team alive for a postseason berth. Behind Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and veteran Chris Young lead MLB's #1 ranked pitching staff. Add in shutdown closer Fernando Rodney and you've got your final AL playoff team. Predicted Final record (88-74, Wild Card #2).
CLEVELAND INDIANS:
If the rollercoaster ride to end the season last year wasn't enough, the Tribe is providing quite the encore performance down the stretch in 2014. A rotation led by Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber and a youth movement comprised of fireballers Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and arguably the most dominant starting pitcher of the past two months, Carlos Carrasco, the Indians are hanging tough with a chance to strike at the last minute.
Detroit enters the weekend with the "series of the season" in Kansas City. Should the Tigers take 2 of 3 from the Royals and the Indians take 2 of 3 from the Twins, it sets up an incredible finish for KC and Cleveland at Progressive Field the beginning of next week. The Indians are three outs away from a win to finish a suspended game in Kansas City, then finish their final three games of the season series before an off day and the finale against Tampa Bay. Presumably, if the stars align, the Tribe could hold destiny in their hands. The math, and their underwhelming offensive attack, however, doesn't side in Chief Wahoo's corner, as the Tribe fall short of another miraculous run to the postseason. Predicted Final record (84-78).
