Oak's Corner: Early 2020 Fades and Late 2019 Adds

We are down to two and a half weeks left in the fantasy baseball season, and a lot of leagues are tightening up as it is becoming harder and harder to fine good arms or good bats to keep in our lineup every week. We are at the time of year when managers have many more players on their bench which allows them to sit guys more often and also replace them mid-game for a platoon advantage. With so many teams out of the mix, it makes sense for managers to deal with their lineups that way, but it sure doesn't make it easy for fantasy owners setting their lineups.

I will continue to focus on trying to find some free agents who can help you for a final kick in your league, but first, with two columns left on the season, I also wanted to take a quick look at some early fades and targets (those will be next week) for the 2020 season. I am not one who drafts or does any baseball prep from October through January as I try to totally shut down the fantasy baseball for a while as to prevent any burnout, but I do like to take a look at the end of the season towards 2020 while the prior season is fresh in my mind. In doing so, I always note some fades and targets now which helps me in March when I am in full research mode and can inundated with all the new ADP data.

Early 2020 Fades

When I pick some fades to discuss whether it be now or preseason, I try to pick guys who I think will be popular in drafts and I fully believe Victor Robles will be that in 2020. In the 2Early Mocks that Justin Mason of Friends with Fantasy Benefits organizes every September, Robles checked in with an ADP of 68.3 in the six drafts, putting him firmly in the middle of the fifth round in 15-team leagues. I think that will rise by March and we will see Robles in the top 60 as drafters move towards making sure they get their stolen bases.

Robles has had an impressive first season in the Majors at age 22, hitting 17 homers to go with 25 stolen bases. I believe with his high prospect pedigree and speed / power combo appeal, he will be a helium guy in drafts, especially when people factor in his age. While I very much like the stolen base upside from Robles, he is going to be a pass for me (in redrafts only of course, he is a super valuable asset in a dynasty or keeper format) at the price due to his batted ball profile.

When it comes to looking at hard contact, I am fine with some ups and downs, but I do pay attention to it on the extremes and Robles certainly fits that bill. In a year where hard hit rates rose and everyone has hit homers, Robles rates dead last at Fangraphs with a 23.8 percent hard hit hate; that's not just bad, but absolutely dead last among 141 qualified hitters! To further show his lack of pop, among players with 200 batted ball events, Robles has the second lowest average exit velocity at 81 mph, surpassing only noted slugger Billy Hamilton.

Now if Robles were just strictly a rabbit play, we could overlook the hard contact a bit, but part of the reason that he will be drafted in the top 60 is the fact that he contributed this year with some power too. Of course, Robles is young and could get better, I fully acknowledge that, but I don't think it will be enough next year to get anywhere near the draft price and I would be strong on the under on his projected homers and batting average (his strikeout rate has also been elevated to 23.3 percent, but that happens a lot in a guy's first run of the majors) and I just don't want a guy in the 4th round who just does not hit the ball hard when the other options in that range will be very appealing.

Aristides Aquino has been a fantastic and fun story this summer as all he did was win MLB Player of the Month in his first full month in the league. In those same 2Early Mock drafts, Aquino had a big range between his high and low picks, but had an ADP in the eighth round. He is another one that I think will elevate when we get to March as the sexy young names tend to rise, but I will not be one paying up for him.

The power has been very impressive this year with 15 homers in only 150 plate appearances and 43 homers combined between the majors and minors, but as someone who burst on the scene this year, I worry how sustainable it is. His strikeouts are not horrible at 25.6 percent, but I am concerned how they are trending as that rate is now 33.3 percent in September as teams adjust and account for him after the big September. He has slumped badly this month with one homer and a .167 batting average in 42 at-bats and while this month may drop his price down a bit, I am still going to stay away as I do not think it will fall enough for me to get interested.

While Aquino has managed 15 barrels already, his average exit velocity of 87.1 mph doesn't get me excited and while his hard hit rate of 37.1 percent isn't bad, it certainly isn't a number that makes me think he can keep up the elite home run pace he has exhibited this season. Further, that 30.6 percent HR/FB rate is very likely to come down, especially for a guy who has a good, but not elite level of hard contact. These last couple weeks will likely go a decent way towards deciding Aquino's ADP, but I still think it will be too rich for my blood as I have seen enough downside this month to want to stay away in the first ten rounds in 2020.

FAAB Feelings

With two FAAB periods remaining, the key we are looking for now is batter with regular at-bats showing any kind hot streak or for pitchers who won't kill you and have a plus matchup this week. Also, just a reminder to be aggressive with your drops. If a guy isn't playing every day or has a lingering injury, I have no issue dropping him as we just don't have time for those situations to turn around before the end of the season. Further, make sure to take a look ahead at the final week when making moves this week as everyone will want to grab some two-start pitchers for that week so you may be able to sneak one or two through this week at a cheaper price. As with the last couple of weeks, these will be a bit rapid fire to get more pickup names in the mix.

Nick Solak. I am surprised that Solak is only 36 percent owned in the NFBC 12-team leagues as he is hitting cleanup almost every day for the Rangers and doing it really well, hitting .360 with four homers and 15 RBI in only 22 games. Solak was acquired mid-season from the Rays and had a big season at Triple-A hitting 27 homers in 115 games before his call-up. His value next week takes a little dip with only five games, but he makes an easy sit for the two games early in the week against the Astros, but I would definitely deploy him over the weekend against the A's and definitely the week after against the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams who will have no reason to win those games for very different reasons. A guy hitting cleanup every day available this late in the season who also happens to be raking right now is an easy add for me.

Trent Grisham. Grisham's playing time has been a bit all over the place since his call-up, but he is playing more right now as the Brewers try to find a way to score runs as they battle for the Wild Card (and maybe the NL Central, more on that later) without Christian Yelich in the lineup. The Brewers play seven games this week and while Grisham has had issues with striking out since his call-up (26.5 percent K Rate), he has 18 homers across two levels this year and has flashed big time speed in the minors. With Yelich done for the year, Grisham should find his way to a lot of at-bats the final two weeks and is an upside guy that could help you close some ground in your league in power or steals, especially if he finds his way into more appearances in the leadoff spot and is only owned in 27 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues.

Joey Wendle. Much like Grisham, Wendle finds himself on a team that needs to win over the last two weeks and his hot bat is going to keep him in the lineup. Wendle is also readily available in leagues as he is only owned in nine percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. In 11 September games, Wendle is hitting .378 while scoring ten runs and even stealing three bases. He has hit leadoff in three of his last four starts as he finally seems to be flashing his 2018 form which had missing through most of this injury-marred 2019 campaign. Wendle is not going to give you much pop, but now that he is playing almost every day, he has a good shot to be a three category contributor and his eligibility at second and third base adds value, especially late in the season as we try and maneuver around injuries.  

Phillip Ervin. Ervin is available in 99 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and with some injuries in the Reds outfield, he seems to finally seeing a run of consistent playing time as we close the season. Ervin's value in the minors was his stolen base upside with three seasons where he topped 30 stolen bases, but he has run very little this season with three steals in 81 games, but has warmed this month and has smoked three homers already in September. He has a bit of a tough schedule this week facing Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom, but I would deploy him for the first half of the week getting two lefties as he is hitting .355 against southpaws on the year. He also benefits from a nice schedule the final week as he gets the Brewers and Pirates who feature exactly zero starting pitchers I feel we need to avoid.

Adam Wainwright. This is a "look one week ahead" play as Wainwright could get two starts in the final week of the season, but it will depend on where the Cardinals are for the final three games. If they have clinched the NL Central, we likely will see Waino for 3 innings at most, but there is a chance they need those games which would line him up for two starts. Wainwright is not exciting with a 4.16 ERA and a 8.1 K/9 strikeout rate in 149.1 innings, but has been consistent lately, allowing more than three runs only once in his last eight starts and has even allowed only one run total in his last two starts over 14 innings, granted those were against the Brewers and Giants. I don't think I have recommended Wainwright any other time this year, but if he makes those two starts the final week, he is someone that has a good chance at wins without hurting your ratios too badly and every win will be gold down the stretch.

Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is a "hot right now" play as he has been solid in his last two starts with only one run allowed in 11 innings while striking out 11. The walks are definitely an issue as he struggled with walks in Triple-A (6.7 K/9), although he was pretty good in Double-A (2.1 BB/9), but it has even been a problem for him in these last two good starts. Sheffield gets a start in Baltimore this week and if you need wins, that is a great shot as the Mariners could score early and often on the Orioles, although he does face the best Orioles pitcher, John Means. Sheffield is a former first rounder and was a piece the Mariners received for James Paxton so there should be some upside here and I like his chances to help the end of your pitching staff over the final two weeks.

Series of the Weekend

Now that the AL Central is down to a 3.5 game difference, the Indians hosting the Twins is clearly the most important series of the weekend, but I highlighted that exact matchup last week so I am going to move to the NL Central this weekend for a huge series as the Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers. The series takes on major implications in the division as the Brewers are currently down four games to the Cardinals and a series win makes the division very much in play over the final two weeks, but the Brewers also find themselves right in the thick of things for the second Wild Card spot as they are currently tied with the Cubs and two games ahead of the Phillies and Mets.

One big reason the Cardinals have taken a lead over the Brewers and Cubs in the division is that Jack Flaherty has been the absolute best pitcher in baseball over the last two months. His numbers seem impossible since the break as he has posted a 0.76 ERA over 71.1 IP. Yes, that number is correct and that works out to a grand total of six earned runs in that stretch while mixing in 89 strikeouts. In this crazy run of 11 starts, he has allowed zero runs seven times and never more than two runs.

A run like that over a month is impressive, but to keep it running for two months is just incredible and it has lowered his ERA on the year to just under 3.00. The one big improvement Flaherty has seen from his 2018 breakout is in his walk rate and he has dropped it from 3.52 BB/9 to 2.63 BB/9. Flaherty was a big helium guy this draft season and with this finish, his draft stock is clearly going higher. His ADP in the 2Early Mocks was 42.8 but I think in the NFBC Main Event next March, we see him going at the 2/3 turn in most drafts with an ADP in the low 30's.

The Brewers came into the season with an offense we all thought would be impressive, but they are just 20th in baseball in runs scored and that number has not improved in the second half as they rank about the same over the last two months. At the moment, they are missing their two best hitters in the second half, Yelich and Keston Hiura, and quietly hidden in the amazing Yelich season has been just how disappointing Lorenzo Cain's season has been.

After a 2018 where Cain stole 30 bases and with ten homers, while hitting .308, he cost a fifth round pick in the NFBC Main Events this March. He won't come close to matching the steals and average numbers and he may not even get to double digits again in homers. Cain has managed to stay on the field for 133 games, but is hitting 50 plus points lower at .252 and only has managed to swipe 16 bases while being caught seven times. His hard hit rate has dropped a bit to 35.8 percent, but his barrel percentage of 4 percent a 6.4 degree launch angle really stick out as numbers that show we can't be surprised by the lack of homers, even with the juiced-up baseball this season. For someone who is universally owned and played every week, Cain has been a major fantasy disappointment this year and while the 16 stolen bases do help, he is actively hurting teams elsewhere with only 42 RBI and a surprisingly low 69 runs scored.