Oak's Corner: Big Series in Boston

The Week That Was

After a 24-homer barrage in 2017 in only 59 games, Matt Olson was a draft darling, ending up with an ADP of 120 across 34 NFBC Main Event leagues. Olson has struggled to start the season, hitting only seven homers in 49 games with a .240 batting average. The swing and miss aspect of his game is a batting average issue and was a concern heading into drafts because he struck out in 27.8 percent of his plate appearances in 2017, and that strikeout rate has inched up a touch to 28.9 percent this season. His walk rate is down a bit from 10.2 percent to 9.1 percent, and his OPS and ISO have crashed from 2017.

Despite the negative notes in his profile and his lack of big pop so far this year, I'm optimistic that a homer flurry is coming shortly. Even with the swing and miss issues, when he does make contact, he's mashing the ball with a filthy 50 percent hit rate, good for second best in baseball behind only J.D. Martinez. He also ranks among the top five in lowest soft contact rate, checking in at only 8.5 percent, one of only eight players under 10 percent. His fly balls are down a touch to 41.5 percent from 46 percent, but still not especially low, and with that hard hit rate, it should lead to Olson finding the seats quite often. He was never going to match his 41.4 percent HR/FB rate form 2017 (I know, Captain Obvious), but with how hard he hits the ball, I think his current 14.3 percent HR/FB is going to rapidly increase soon. Olson is locked into playing time and a good spot in the order for an offense than is top 10 in baseball in runs scored, and the RBI are really going to come as soon as he gets hot. He's a prime trade target for me right now and might be obtained for a solid draft day discount now that we are eight weeks into the season.

In the latest round of maybe spring training stats don't actually matter, Jason Kipnis moved up draft boards after smoking six homers in only 52 spring training at-bats. After an injury-marred 2017 during which Kipnis hit only .232 (but did hit 12 homers), his stock was low all offseason until he looked like his old self in the spring. Well, it's safe to say that the spring swing hasn't come with him north to Cleveland, as he has only hit one homer in 202 plate appearances this season. The lack of power is bad enough but it gets even worse when you consider he has yet to steal a base and has posted a dismal .180 batting average.

Interestingly, the underlying numbers on Kipnis don't look too bad. His strikeout rate is pretty much in line with his good years at 19.3 percent, and his walk rate of 10.4 percent is the highest that it has been since 2013. Kipnis' hard hit rate is solid at 35.5 percent, which stands very near the highest of his career. His BABIP is currently at .223, about 90 points below his career average, and while his career high fly ball rate of 44.2 percent might be impacting that some, if he keeps hitting the ball hard, the number is going to rise. Also, with the fly balls and his hard hit rate, the absurdly unlucky 1.6 percent HR/FB (yes, 1.6 percent, you read that right!) is going to come up too. I'd guess his owners are just about over him, which is a perfect time to grab him for a low price and enjoy the bounceback. I'm not expecting prime Kipnis by any means, but a very usable middle infielder and a definite profit on the current price.

FAAB Feelings

• Juan Soto – Soto makes for a very interesting and big moment in free agent bidding this season. In all NFBC leagues, Soto wasn't available last weekend in FAAB as he didn't play until Sunday, so he wasn't in the player pool. Under NFBC rules, if a minor leaguer isn't drafted (and he started in Single-A so he wasn't), he's not eligible to be bid upon until he's called up. As a result, Soto is owned in zero percent of NFBC Main Event and Online Championship leagues, something that rarely happens for this big a prospect promotion. Just as one data point, in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational league, a 15-team league setup among all people who write or work in the fantasy industry, Soto was available last week and went for more than $350 in all the leagues in which he wasn't owned. True potential difference makers are hard to find in FAAB, as most stud rookies called up are at least owned in some percentage of leagues, so the bidding should be wild. The question is not whether you should bid but just how aggressively to bid.

  Incredibly, Soto moved from Single-A to the majors before June 1st. Soto mashed 14 homers in 39 games across three levels in the minor leagues before getting called up after Howie Kendrick ruptured his Achilles tendon. Impressively, he struck out in only about 15 percent of his plate appearances as a 17-year old in rookie ball and Low-A in 2016, and then in only about seven percent of his plate appearances in 32 games in Rookie Ball and Single-A in 2017, as he missed a lot of time due ankle and wrist injuries.

  The upside is clearly significant, and watching him hit an opposite field homer off a lefty in his first start with the Nats was a lot of fun, but he's still 19 with a small amount of minor league at-bats. I think he's likely to stay as long as he's decent, because even when Ryan Zimmerman comes back, Soto should find spots to play, as Michael Taylor currently sports a brutal .560 OPS, which is an issue even if he does play excellent defense in center field. Soto's clear upside deserves large bids, as there's a possibility that you'll get four months of production from him, but the lack of experience and age worries me a bit. It isn't easy to roll into the bigs at 19 and rake. On any of my teams where I'm badly in need of offense and like my pitching, I would go large for him, but I don't anticipate landing him in many leagues as I need to save my money for potentially emerging closers. I'd guess he goes for between $400 and $500 in most 15-team leagues and $250 to $350 in 12-team leagues. If you want him, get ready to open that FAAB pocket book.

• Mac Williamson – This will be a quick one, as Williamson is still owned in most leagues, but I figured I'd note him since he's still available in 26 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and likely higher in some thinner leagues. Williamson has crushed Triple-A this year to the tune of eight homers in only 16 games and also hit three homers in only five games when he was called up to the Giants. He suffered a concussion in late April after crashing into the wall, but he appears to be symptom-free and has been on a rehab assignment and is scheduled to rejoin the Giants this weekend. The Giants badly need some pop, and Williamson's performance this year, even though a very small sample, has earned him some sort of run to try and win a full-time outfield job in San Francisco. He changed his swing in the offseason with Justin Turner's swing coach, and this newfound power is worth bidding on if he was dropped in your league to see just how real it is with a run of health.

• Alex Cobb – After four consecutive starts where he allowed three runs or fewer, I grabbed Cobb as one of my conditional bids last week for a small bid in the NFBC Main Event in anticipation of his two-start week coming up this week. Fortunately, I didn't use him for his one start this week at the White Sox, as he allowed eight hits and six runs in only 3.2 innings. I just don't see enough positive here overall to grab him for this two-start week.

  Strikeouts were already an issue for Cobb, but they have crashed even more so far this year to an absurdly low 5.04 BB/9. His BABIP is extremely high at .396 and his strand rate is low at 60.8 percent which has fueled the 7.32 ERA, but even when you take that into account, his FIP is still 5.39, a number which isn't helping any fantasy teams. He does sport a solid 51.3 percent ground ball rate, but his hard hit rate is too high at 36.9 percent, especially considering he can't get strikeouts when needed. His 2017 line does still linger in the back of my head with his 3.66 ERA and 1.22 Whip, but I think there is too much ratio risk with two games in Camden Yards, especially with one against the Yankees, without any strikeout upside to take a shot on him this week. I'm dropping him in the Main Event and not picking him up anywhere else.
  

Closer is always a wild position with a good amount of turnover, but this year feels especially frustrating with saves. Usually, when we get turnover, we're able to bid on or pick up someone who slides into the role and at least has a shot at finding saves if we need them. Aside from the Giants, who moved seamlessly into Hunter Strickland when Mark Melancon went down, the closers who have lost their jobs have left us with more situations than usual that are messy or filled with options that aren't especially appealing with the job. The Angels, Blue Jays, Phillies, Reds (now that Iglesias is on the DL) and White Sox have all had some closer turnover, but we aren't totally sure who's going to get the next opportunity game by game. On top of that, I'm not convinced we want them even if they do get a shot at it aside from Philadelphia where I do like some of the pitchers but hate the situation.

The rest of the teams are still utilizing their initial closer, which has added up to a brutal market to try and find saves if you lost a closer, had one go on the DL or, like me, drafted closers poorly in March. I imagine patience will pay off as more jobs inevitably open up, but that patience wears thin pretty rapidly if you're falling behind in saves week by week. The key is to stay vigilant and try to identify solid arms making a splash and moving their way up the pecking order of the bullpen, or guys falling into jobs due to injury or trade.

With a number of really bad teams in the league at the moment, we could have some earlier than usual trades by clubs out of the race but looking to obtain some prospects for their current closer. The prime situation to watch at the moment is the Royals, as there are already rumblings they may look to trade some veterans, and Kelvin Herrera is likely on the top of that list. Unfortunately, yet again, there aren't a lot of exciting options behind Herrera, as Blaine Boyer and Justin Grimm has been horrible so far this year, so the likely best bet to take over if Herrera gets dealt is Kevin McCarthy. While McCarthy has put up a nice 2.75 ERA this year while inducing a ton of ground balls, it's hard to get too excited about a potential closer with a 5.95 K/9 strikeout rate. In deeper league, I think McCarthy goes on a watch list for now in case the Herrera rumors heat up, but with the low strikeout rates, I'm not jumping to grab him (or anyone else in the Royals pen) at the moment, as I can't see myself being able to use him in a setup role in the meantime for help in ratios and strikeouts. Make sure to pay close attention to the trade rumblings over the next six weeks, as it might be the best chance we have to grab a closer a week or two before he falls into the job.

Series of the Weekend

Braves at Red Sox – This was an easy call as this is a fantastic interleague matchup that pits the best record in the AL against the second-best record in the NL. The Braves have been an extremely fun story this year, as before the Nationals called Juan Soto, they had the three youngest players in all of baseball on their roster in Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka. Albies has been an absolute beast so far in 2018, hitting .280 through 207 at-bats with 14 homers, 34 RBI and an NL-leading 45 runs scored. Albies was very popular in drafts this offseason, but even the most positive Albies truther didn't predict this power outburst this quick, as he only hit 15 homers in all of 2017 across 154 Triple-A and MLB games.

While it was expected that Albies, Acuna and Freddie Freeman would be good, the surprise in the Braves lineup so far this year has been the incredible season by Nick Markakis. Through 49 games, Markakis is hitting .344 with seven homers and 32 RBI and has locked down the Braves clean-up spot, which is obviously quite the spot with those three guys hitting in front of him. This explosion has really come out of nowhere, as he hasn't topped 18 homers since 2008 and he hasn't topped a .750 OPS since 2011, but his current OPS is .922. His strikeout rate is incredible so far this year too, as he has dropped it under 10 percent (one of only four regulars in baseball under 10 percent), the lowest of his career and a big drop from his 16.4 percent 2017 mark. I passed on picking up Markakis during the first couple weeks of the season, because it felt like a hot streak that would fade quickly based on his past few seasons, but boy has that been a crucial mistake.

The Red Sox have been strong on both sides of the ball, sporting a top-10 team ERA to go with the second best scoring offense in baseball. The offense is obviously led by the much publicized monster seasons of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, but the recent surge of Andrew Benintendi has made the top of their lineup even more stacked. Benintendi had a rough April during which he hit .242 with only one home run, but he has stepped up in May with a .317 average and has already hit four homers. His hard hit rate was concerning in April at only 20.7 percent, and while it's still nowhere near his 34.3 percent mark from 2017, he has posted a 27.3 percent rate so far in May. He has also ramped up the fly balls in May to 43.9 percent after only hitting 34.2 percent in April.

While Chris Sale is always fun to watch and is pitching Sunday, but I'm looking forward to the Friday night matchup between lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Sean Newcomb. I have liked Rodriguez since his debut in 2015 and have been waiting for him to put it all together, but injuries and issues with homers have stopped that breakout. After starting the year on the DL in 2018, he has been taking the ball every fifth day, and his strikeouts rate sits at a career high 10.88 K/9, but the homers have still been a problem. He's allowed seven already in 48 innings. On a positive note, he has jumped his ground ball rate seven percent so far this year to 41.9 percent, which should hopefully mitigate the long ball issues a bit. The swinging rate is a career high 12.1 percent, a good sign that the strikeout bump may be legit. I wrote up Newcomb a few weeks ago and he has been nothing but brilliant as of late, allowing only one run total over his past four starts and has dropped his ERA on the season to 2.39. This will be a fun battle of young lefties to kick off what should be a fantastic series all weekend.