Oak's Corner: Adapting in Drafts

I drafted an NFBC RotoWire Online Championship team on Wednesday night and it put my prior notes about staying flexible and adaptable to the test. It was a bit of a
wacky draft (especially with an overall component to this particular contest meaning you need some semblance of balance across all categories), as one team didn't take a starting pitcher through 13 rounds and another fully punted power (yes, you read that right) through the entire draft. When two teams go with such extreme strategies, it makes an impacts on the draft, and rather than get frustrated, I tried to steer into the skid and adapt to what was going on.

I believe player pool knowledge is important when things go a bit sideways, as you have to know what your player targets are in each portion in the draft. And this means not just for specific players, but for categories and positions. If you miss getting stolen bases early based on how the draft went, make sure you have guys you like for steals in the middle or the back end of the draft so you don't get caught getting buried in a category. On the same note, if you miss out on a run of third basemen early and all the guys you like are gone, go elsewhere and don't force it, but make sure to have names ready in the middle or back end of the third base pool that you'll be okay having in your lineups. This knowledge will also help you identify spots in the draft where you want to make sure to attack a category or a position. Also, and most importantly, if some weird stuff happens in your draft (and it just might) you can take advantage of grabbing someone you weren't expecting to be available to you and feel comfortable about working around that surprise.

So, this takes me back to my draft last night where the biggest development in the draft was the crazy pace at which closers went off the board. Early on, there were a couple of times I was about to grab a closer, and two or three of them went right before I picked and then, after all the tope ones were gone, the rest of them started going anywhere from 20 to 50 picks before their ADP. In addition, three teams, all at one end of the draft already had three closers through the first 13 rounds. Now, ADP doesn't mean everything, but at some point, I just didn't like the value on any of the closers going early, so I adapted and kept pounding hitters and starting pitchers.

The result was a team that should be massive in power and starting pitching stats, but obviously will need some help in saves to compete overall. I ended up getting Brad Ziegler in round 20 and then three setup guys that have a chance to end up in closers role: Addison Reed, Dominic Leone and Brad Boxberger. I usually don't like so many non-closers on a roster, but with my offense and starting pitchers solidified based on the way I zigged, I'm hoping not to need to play matchups as much as usual and can hold them for at least a little bit to see how the closers in front of them start out. In the case of Leone, maybe he thrives early while Luke Gregerson gets fully healthy. I probably wouldn't have gone all in on the strategy mid-draft in a 15-teamer, but in a 12-teamer, I figured I'd have a chance todiscover some saves on the waiver wire if my speculative plays don't come to fruition.

Stay flexible, there are many ways to get to your end game, and oftentimes, the less predictable path ends up being very nice. The crazy closer runs in my league last night led me to take a look at the closer pool as a whole and details some I'm targeting and a couple I'm looking to fade. (Note: The ADP in parentheses are from the NFBC over the past 7 days of drafts.)

A Closer Look

After the top two elite guys, I see a group of six guys in the second tier. Because I wrote about fading Corey Knebel a couple weeks ago, I'll highlight a couple of guys I especially like in this tier. I love Roberto Osuna (ADP 75), and while he is popular play, I'm willing to pay the price and it starts with the Whip. Incredibly, in his first three season in the majors, Osuna has yet to have a whip over 1.00, and in 2017, he took it to another level with a 0.86 Whip. Yes, I know about the blown saves last year, but if my closer is going to allow this few baserunners, I like his chance to turn that trend around in 2018. Osuna also took his strikeout rate to a career high in 2017 with 11.67 K/9 backed by an increase in his swinging strike rate to an elite 16.8 percent. Further, he took his already fantastic 1.70 BB/9 rate from 2016 and improved it to 1.27 BB/9. The scariest part is that Osuna is still only 23!

Edwin Diaz (ADP 89) has walk issues last year and would completely lose his command in a particular game. He had two games of three walks and one game where he walked four, with those three outings spanning only 1.2 innings. Those 10 walks in a short amount of work caused his walk rate to spike to an ugly 4.36 BB/9 on the season. Diaz nicely righted the ship late in the season with only three walks in his final 14 appearances. If he can limit those walks, Diaz has the chance to be completely dominant. His strikeout numbers waned a bit from his 2016 debut, but were still great with a 16 percent swinging strike rate and 12.1 K/9. I liked what I saw late in the season from Diaz enough to jump aboard for 2018 and love his almost limitless upside.

Rolling down the ADP a little further, I arrive at another guy I love, Sean Doolittle (ADP 114). I know he's an injury risk, but if he wasn't, he'd be drafted higher, as that risk is included in his price. Doolittle was flat out elite last season, posting a 10.87 K/9 to go with a 1.75 BB/9 with a 2.81 ERA over 51.1 innings. He also was a huge saves boost for owners down the stretch, locking down 21 of 22 opps after his trade to the Nationals in July. While Doolittle has had multiple injury issues, especially with his left shoulder, he has been fantastic whenever he's been healthy, and I love when my closer doesn't walk anyone. The Nationals are the class of the NL East and should win a lot of games this year, so I want Doolittle at the price for those saves and ratios.

As we approach the middle tier of closers, I'm looking to grab Arodys Vizcaino (ADP 154). Vizcaino was a hot closer in waiting in 2016 but ended up walking the house that season with a walk rate of 6.05 BB/9. The control struggles caused his ERA to be 4.42 in 2016, and Atlanta stayed with Jim Johnson (really, Jim Johnson?) to start the season in the closer role. Vizcaino made huge strides with the walks in 2017, dropping his walk rate to 3.30 BB/9, while still striking out more than batters per nine, dropping his ERA to 2.83. The homers were an issue at 1.10 HR/9, but most importantly for fantasy going into 2018, Vizcaino succeeded late in the year in the closer role, converting 12 of 13 save opportunities. Adding to the big strikeout numbers is that Vizcaino's swinging strike rate jumped again in in 2017 to 14.7 percent. Vizcaino is on the rise, with a huge fastball on a young team on the rise, yeah, I'm in.

When it comes to picking between relievers in a tier, sometimes one has to pick some nits to decide on a guy, and at the ADP and I'm passing on Wade Davis (ADP 112) for other options. Davis nicely bumped up his strikeout rate to 12.12 K/9 in his one season with the Cubs, but it also came with a walk rate that jumped to 4.30 BB/9. Even more concerning when looking closely at his season is that the walk rate got worse in the second half. In his 28.2 innings in the second half, Davis had a 5.02 BB/9 rate, but his ERA stayed at 2.83, thanks to a high 93.8 percent strand rate. In addition, his second half hard hit rate jumped to 33.8 percent, a number that was 25 percent in the first half. Toss in half his games at Coors, and there's enough for me to worry about with Davis to take another closer in the price range.

On the other side of the Sean Doolittle trade mentioned earlier was Blake Treinen (ADP 165) joining the A's and eventually (and mercifully) taking over the closer role from Santiago Casilla. In 38 innings in Oakland, Treinen posted a 2.13 ERA and struck out 9.9 batters per nine, a big jump from the 7.6 K/9 he posted while with Washington last season. The most important aspect from Treinen's 2017 was cutting the walks,which had been an issue for him in both 2015 and 2016. After back to back year with walk rates over 4.00/9, Treinen ended 2017 with a 2.97 BB/9 rate. Also, on the positive side is the large jump that Treinen's swinging strike rate took, from under 11 percent in 2015 and 2016 to 13.1 percent in 2017. After locking down 13 saves for the A's in the second half, Treinen has a clear lock on the closer's job, and while the A's starting pitching will struggle, their offense is going to score runs, and their revamped bullpen should be able to get leads to Treinen in the ninth. He's moved up in ADP over the last couple of months, but I'm still a buyer at the new price.

Picking among closers in the second half of the draft can be tough, but if I need a second closer after pick 200, I'm looking to Shane Greene (ADP 217). Any closer this late is going to have some warts, and while his 2.66 ERA in 67.2 2017 innings looks strong, the 4.52 BB/9 sticks out as a problem for a closer. However, I like the gains Greene made in the second half while closing games for the Tigers. Greene compiled a 1.98 ERA after the break (granted it was assisted by a 91.2 percent strand rate) and also managed to drop his walk rate to 3.95 BB/9 while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine. Another big problem in Greene's profile is his hard rate of 41.3 percent in 2017, but he was able to drop that to 34.4 percent in the second half, after a massive 46.1 percent rate in the first half. Greene is by no means without issues, but after pick 200, I find him the best option with some possibility or upside if he's able to maintain the second half improvements.

The Angels appear to be considering a closer by committee situation in Anaheim, but the value in this situation could be with Cam Bedrosian (ADP 270). Bedrosian opened 2017 as the Angels closer, but he suffered a groin injury that lingered and held him out for two months. By the time he returned, the situation was muddled, and Bud Norris was the closer, and then Blake Parker ended the season as the closer. Norris is gone, and while Parker was great in 2017, he's still 32 and has been struggling mightily this spring (16.20 ERA in 6.2 innings). The play with potential real upside in this situation is the 26-year-old Bedrosian, who struck out 10.68 batters per nine in 2017 in 44.2 innings. His ERA was bloated at 4.43, but issues with homers and a low strand rate of 62.8 percent hurt him. This situation might be sticky in April, but Bedrosian is the arm I want out of their bullpen mix, and the one who could lock down the job and run with it.

If you happen to miss a second or third closer and want to speculate later on some guys who could take over as closer early in the year, I have a couple of names I'm targeting. It can be difficult to hold closers in waiting, as injuries start to occur and benches get crowded, so I like to focus not only on guys who have skills I want but also in situations that could change rapidly.

When Addison Reed (ADP 284) signed in Minnesota, I assumed he'd be a popular draft target for saves in Minnesota, but to the surprise of many, the Twins are going with veteran Fernando Rodney as their closer to begin the season. Rodney did manage to compile 39 saves last season for the Diamondbacks, and while he did post a four-year high of 10.57 K/9, it also came with a 4.23 ERA and 4.23 BB/9. The walks are the big issue for Rodney, and with four of five seasons with a walk rate of more than 4.00 BB/9, he seems to always walk a fine line regarding his job security. We never know how saves will work out, but Reed is just a better pitcher in my eyes. He did struggle with homers last year at a rate of 1.30 HR/9, but he has now maintained a walk rate under 2.00 BB/9 the last two years while posting an ERA under 3.00. Reed was once considered to be the closer of the future for the White Sox, but he has really come into his own the last two seasons and is going to find his way into saves for the Twins at some point this season, and just maybe it will be sooner rather than later.

The Cardinals are another team with a bit of a mess at the closer spot. While I think Luke Gregerson is significantly better than his 4.57 ERA from 2017 (that 1.92 HR/9 really stung him), he suffered a strained oblique (he is back now) in the spring that has allowed Dominic Leone (ADP 314) to possibly move ahead of him in the pecking order. Leone has only allowed one run this spring through eight innings, and while that is an extremely small sample, Leone also had a strong 2017 with the Jays, sporting a 2.56 ERA in 70.1 innings. He significantly boosted his strikeout rate from 7.67 K/9 in 2016 to 10.36 K/9 in 2017, and that strikeout boost was supported by a strong 14.5 percent swinging strike rate. The first couple of weeks could be huge for Leone if he converts his save opps while Gregerson is fully ramping it up, he could have a chance to run with the job. At his current price tag, I'm certainly paying to find out.

The 2018 closer pool is a difficult one to navigate with a number of teams either in flux or considering a committee, but that messiness is also going to allow unearthing some gems as we go along. Follow the tenuous situation closely week by week, as they tend to change rapidly and could allow for some monster FAAB pickups. Most importantly, the season starts in one week!