This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
The Week That Was
Alex Bregman was a popular riser in fantasy drafts, moving up into the early third round in 15-team drafts by late March. Bregman concerned those owners a bit with a very pedestrian April, hitting .250 with only one home run. Bregman has caught fire of late and is finally looking like the breakout young player we all expected after the Astros run through the World Series. In June, Bregman is hitting .286 with six homers, and is top five in baseball with 19 RBI and top 10 with 16 runs scored. After a quick demotion in April to the bottom half of the lineup, Bregman is now slotted into the two hole every day between George Springer as Jose Altuve, about as prime a lineup spot as there is in baseball.
Most impressively, Bregman has sliced his strikeout rate to 12.5 percent this season, while also increasing his walk rate to 13.4 percent. Yes, you read that right, Bregman has more walks than strikeouts so far through 73 games with 44 walks and 41 strikeouts. While cutting his strikeouts, Bregman has also increased his hard hit rate over 40 percent for the first time in his career. His career BABIP is .303, and with the number of hard hit balls he has this year, I expect his current .279 BABIP to rise. Bregman has also tossed in six stolen bases, as he looks to come close to matching his 17 steals from 2017. I love
The Week That Was
Alex Bregman was a popular riser in fantasy drafts, moving up into the early third round in 15-team drafts by late March. Bregman concerned those owners a bit with a very pedestrian April, hitting .250 with only one home run. Bregman has caught fire of late and is finally looking like the breakout young player we all expected after the Astros run through the World Series. In June, Bregman is hitting .286 with six homers, and is top five in baseball with 19 RBI and top 10 with 16 runs scored. After a quick demotion in April to the bottom half of the lineup, Bregman is now slotted into the two hole every day between George Springer as Jose Altuve, about as prime a lineup spot as there is in baseball.
Most impressively, Bregman has sliced his strikeout rate to 12.5 percent this season, while also increasing his walk rate to 13.4 percent. Yes, you read that right, Bregman has more walks than strikeouts so far through 73 games with 44 walks and 41 strikeouts. While cutting his strikeouts, Bregman has also increased his hard hit rate over 40 percent for the first time in his career. His career BABIP is .303, and with the number of hard hit balls he has this year, I expect his current .279 BABIP to rise. Bregman has also tossed in six stolen bases, as he looks to come close to matching his 17 steals from 2017. I love Bregman and am a full hold on him and would look to acquire him, even with his high draft price, as I think his batting average is about to make a nice run, which is going to push his counting stats in that lineup even more.
Ketel Marte has long been a favorite of fellow RotoWire writer/podcaster Todd Zola, and that Zola love might finally be paying off. Marte was an intriguing prospect coming up with the Mariners but he hasn't really delivered so far in his time in the majors. Marte was thought to be a legit speed threat for fantasy leagues after stealing 29 and 28 bases in the minors in 2014 and 2015, but he has yet to top 11 steals in any season in the majors. Marte was dealt to Arizona in the Jean Segura/Taijuan Walker trade and disappointed in his first year in Arizona, hitting .260 with only five homers and three stolen bases.
Marte came into 2018 with a playing time issue with Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings also in the middle infield, but injuries have cleared up the issue, and after struggling through the first two months of the season, Marte has caught fire in June, hitting .333 with four homers and 15 runs and RBI. The hot streak has come with batted ball support, as he has a 46.9 percent hard hit rate in June and has also upped his fly ball rate to 36.7 percent. I can't imagine Marte suddenly becomes a significant source of power, but if he can keep stinging the ball, the batting average will come along with his speed and the stolen base upside is still in there somewhere. He's still only owned in 45 percent of the NFBC 12-teamers, and I'll bid on him for sure where he's available. I might even toss a few draft feelers out there to see if his owner is looking to sell off the hot streak.
The D'Backs' Zack Godley was a godsend for me last season after I picked him up in free agency. We talked about him a bunch here last season after his first few starts and he delivered with a sparkling 3.37 ERA in 155 innings. He punched out 9.58 batters per nine and kept the walks at bay with a 3.08 BB/9 rate, and all that was augmented by a 55.3 percent ground ball rate. He was a draft darling (especially with the brand new humidor in Chase Field), being selected with an ADP of 98.4 in NFBC Main Event drafts in March, but 2018 has been rough for him with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 83.1 innings. There are some rumblings that he could lose his rotation spot with Shelby Miller and Robbie Ray coming back from injury, but I still think he'll hold it over Clay Buchholz.
Godley has suffered a small drop in his strikeout rate, but the biggest issue has been his loss of command as he now has a walk rate of 4.43 BB/9 after Thursday's start. In addition to the walks, he has also been hit harder, with a four percent jump in hard hit rate to 36.4 percent, and he has surrendered 11 homers this year after allowing only 15 last season. As much as I liked Godley last year, I'm having a hard time buying into him now, even with a possible buy low opportunity. Him cutting the walks would be my sign to maybe buy back in, but even in his win on Thursday, he issued three free passes in six innings. If I see a run of starts where he appears to have the command back, I may make a move for him, but for now, I'm just watching from afar.
The other pitching draft darling off to a big second half is Cardinal Luke Weaver, and, like Godley, his second time around the league has been a struggle. Through Weaver's first 15 starts this year, he has posted a 4.69 ERA to go with a 1.40 WHIP in 78.2 innings. The big thing that sticks out between the two seasons is the dramatic drop in his strikeout rate. In 60.1 innings in 2017, Weaver had a very nice 10.74 K/9 strikeout rate, but that number has crashed to 7.78 K/9 this season. The number has fallen each month so far this season and is only at 6.64 K/9 so far in 20.1 June innings.
Weaver's hard hit rate has also jumped to 41.4 percent in June, easily the highest rate he has had in any month this season. Interestingly, his swinging strike rate has remained about the same (9.6 percent to 9.2 percent) between 2017 and 2018, and it looks quite likely that the 10.75 K/9 number in 2017 was a bit of an aberration. In addition to the strikeout issues, his walk rate is up and his ground ball rate has dropped more than six percent. Much like Godley, I was hoping to locate a silver lining in Weaver, which would get me excited about buying in on him on the cheap, but I'm going to watch him from the sidelines, too. If I see a few games in which the strikeouts return, I may take a second look, but I'm passing for now.
FAAB Feelings
Tyler Mahle – The Reds are not good, and Cincinnati is a tough place to pitch, but Mahle has managed to hold his own in his first extended stint in the majors with a 3.89 ERA through 15 starts. Mahle exhibited excellent control in the minors, with under 2.00 walks per nine in 2017, but walks have been an issue for him in the majors with his 3.83 BB/9 walk rate in 101 big league innings. So far this year, despite the workable ERA, home runs have been a big problem for him. He's already allowed 15 and his 41.5 percent hard hit rate allowed plus an elevated 25.2 percent line drive scares me, as the temperature warms up this summer in that home park.
Mahle is in the midst of a really nice stretch right now, allowing only four runs total in his last four starts, winning three of those contests. He will likely be a popular add this week off those recent results, as he's scheduled to make two starts this week. He's set to face the Braves in Atlanta followed by a home start against the Brewers. Mahle worries me this week, as the Braves lead the National League in runs scored, and while the Brewers are only middle of the pack, it's definitely not an easy matchup week overall. Despite the recent success, this is one two-step I don't trust. I'm staying away and anticipating some ratio damage from Mahle this week.
Shelby Miller – After missing almost all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery, Arizona's Miller is scheduled to make his 2018 debut Monday in Miami and then should also get a home start over the weekend against the Giants. After a strong 2015 where he posted a 3.02 ERA in 205.1 innings for the Braves, Miller struggled in 2016 in 101 innings followed by his 2017 injury-shortened season. Even during his strong run with St. Louis and Atlanta from 2013 to 2015, Miller was never a big strikeout guy, but he managed to work around that to post strong results.
Miller had an interesting four starts in the minor leagues in his rehab, as three of them were exceptional; he allowed two runs with 24 strikeouts over 16.1 innings. However, in the fourth, he allowed eight runs in three innings. His final rehab start for Class-A Visalia was an absolute gem, with 10 punch outs and no walks over 6.2 innings, and the reports on Twitter from people in attendance were quite positive. Coming off TJS, Miller likely will encounter some inconsistency, but the nice part is that he couldn't have picked a much better landing spot for his first week back, as the Marlins have by far the fewest runs in the National League, and the Giants are in the middle of the pack. Miller was nabbed over the last two weeks in many 15-teamers and is owned in 74 percent of NFBC Main Event leagues, but he's still owned in only 14 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. I'm going to have some bids in on Miller, and he possesses some nice upside in free agency, something that has been hard to find, especially with starting pitching so far this season.
A Closer Look
Thanks to an anticipated trade, an ill-advised right hook and some trouble putting on pants, we have a number of closer situations that have opened up to create even more chaos in the market for saves. Brandon Morrow, the one who got hurt putting on his pants, figures to be out only about 10 days by all accounts, so unless there's a setback, I won't be chasing much in the muddled Cubs situation for saves. If I had to bid on someone right now, It'd be Steve Cishek who has a 2.01 ERA with a strikeout rate over 10.00 K/9 and has a good amount of closer experience with both the Marlins and Mariners. If by the weekend, it looks like Morrow may be out longer than the minimum, Cishek would be the guy I would speculate on for now.
After blowing a save on Monday and getting into a war of words with the Marlins' Lewis Brinson, Hunter Strickland took out his frustration on a wall and broke a finger. He'll now hit the shelf for six to eight weeks. I spoke with multiple friends and family who are Giants fans, and the general reaction was a lack of surprise and not much regret about missing him, despite the 2.84 ERA. Soon after the news broke, manager Bruce Bochy said he would use Sam Dyson as the primary closer with Tony Watson maybe seeing some opportunities. Bochy also indicated that Mark Melancon wasn't where he needed to be physically to handle the job. As usually happens after a closer goes down, the Giants had three save opps in a row after the injury. Dyson locked down the save on Tuesday but struggled on Wednesday, and was yanked mid-inning, and Melancon pitched a scoreless inning Thursday night for the save. So where the heck do we go now in FAAB bidding this weekend? I'm hoping the weekend series against the Padres may clarify the situation some, but that could be wishful thinking.
Dyson has been good so far in 2018 with a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings, but he's definitely not a strikeout arm, only punching out 7.22 batters per nine this season after a 5.6 K/9 rate last year. He has fixed his walk issues from 2017, dropping his walk rate to 2.67 BB/9. He has succeeded in the past by suppressing hard contact, never posting a hard hit rate above 30 percent, which is why his huge 41.9 percent rate so far this year really sticks out to me. The saving grace for Dyson is that even with that newfound hard contact, he still gets a ton of ground balls at 64.5 percent. When you combine the lack of strikeouts, plus the two mph drop in velocity this year to 93.2, I find it hard to get excited about Dyson putting together any kind of long-term run with the Giants in the closer role.
The guy who has been the best pitcher in the Giants pen so far this year is Tony Watson, posting a 1.82 ERA while increasing his strikeout rate immensely to 10.38 K/9. At the same time, he has dropped his walk rate to 1.56 BB/9, as he has pitched an exceptional 34.2 innings. His velocity is down, but he's throwing less fastballs than at any point in his career, and the pitch mix has led to a career-high 13.6 percent swinging strike rate. I would have loved to have seen him come in on Thursday night to lock down the Giants' win. That would have moved to the top of every bid list I have.
The wrinkle in all of this is Melancon, who the Giants are paying a ton of money to close games, but by all accounts, he cannot yet pitch on back-to-back days, which makes it tough to lock him as their closer. He has only pitched 7.2 innings, and while the ERA is nice so far at 2.35, I'm concerned with the drop in velocity to 90.7 mph. Some of that could of course be due to him still getting the arm fully going, but for a guy who wasn't a pure gas thrower like many closers, losing more than a mile per hour is concerning. If I had to guess on this mess right now, I'd actually toss out Dyson, as I don't think he has the skills to hold the job even if they go back to him, and I think we see a mix of Melancon and Watson.
The Giants would love for it to be Melancon, but I don't trust his health. I'm going to buy the skills in Watson for now, knowing the price will be low, as the other two already have saves this week, and I'll place a bet on the skills eventually winning out, especially since the Giants have another really good lefty, Will Smith, behind Watson in the pen. It's a speculation play, but one I think may win out in the second half, and you won't have to spend a lot of your FAAB this weekend. If you need saves like I do, you have to at least toss small bids on the other two guys, but I don't think my bids will be enough to get either one, and I'll be okay with that.
Three weeks ago, we discussed the Royals in this section, not because Kelvin Herrera was having any problems, but because the Royals were already talking about selling off assets. They dealt Herrera to the Nationals on Monday, and while this job is not especially appealing due to how bad the Royals are, saves are saves, and someone has to lock them down in this bullpen. Manager Ned Yost stated after the trade that no one guy has the job now and that he'd prefer that someone emerged and took advantage of the opportunity.
The only guy in the pen with any sort of significant closer experience is Brandon Maurer, who recorded 35 saves between 2016 and 2017. Maurer has had a big issue with walks so far in 2018, walking 17 batters in 29.1 combined innings between Triple A and MLB. Walks haven't been an issue for Maurer in the past three seasons, with him having fewer than 3.00 walks per nine in each season, so I'm optimistic he can get it figured out. He throws hard, and even though he has never been a huge strikeout guy, he most closely fits the typical closer profile in this Royals pen. They could try Kevin McCarthy, too, whom I discussed when we first talked Royals, and while his ground ball rate is very appealing at 60.6 percent, the strikeout rate of 5.46 K/9 with a fastball that only averages 92.2 mph might be too tough to overcome in the ninth inning. The Royals are 22-52 and looking to sell more parts, so this isn't likely to be a sexy role, but again, saves are saves, so I have to figure out someone here to bid on. I think it will be Maurer followed my McCarthy, but it's tough to scour this pen and see any real upside.
Series of the Weekend
Tigers at Indians – The best series by record is the Mariners heading to Fenway, but they played last week and we covered that, so I'm going to shift to this battle between the top two teams in the AL Central. While they sputtered out of the gate, the Indians are starting to build a division lead. Just about everyone assumes that they will pull away and this won't be a race in the final month of the season. Against almost all expectations, the Tigers are only three games under .500 and sit only five games behind the Indians, and this weekend could go a long way in determining how long they stick in the race. A sweep by the Indians might really kickstart the blowout in the division, but a Tigers sweep would create a bit of intrigue, at least for a little longer. The odds are definitely stacked against the Tigers, as the Indians are great at home at 24-13, and the Tigers struggle away from Comerica, sporting a 13-22 road record so far this season. On the bright side for Detroit, they miss Corey Kluber and the injured Carlos Carrasco, but they will have to deal with Trevor Bauer on Saturday. Bauer has fully built upon his 2017 second half success, posting 2.50 ERA in 100.2 innings, while bumping his strikeout rate to a career-high 11.53 K/9. It felt like a long wait for the full Bauer breakout, but it's absolutely here.
After losing Miguel Cabrera for the season with a ruptured biceps tendon last week, the Tigers offense is now led by one of my favorite hitters in baseball, Nick Castellanos. I love watching him hit, and he seems to hit everything hard, backed up by his 48.6 percent hard hit rate, which puts him top 10 in baseball. However, the sneaky story in the Tigers offense has been the surprising season of Jeimer Candelario who leads the non-Miggy Tigers with a .841 OPS. In the preseason, I was down on Candelario's power upside, but he has proven me wrong with his 11 homers already through 62 games. He has bumped his hard hit rate to 37.7 percent, while also pushing his fly ball rate over 40 percent. Maybe most importantly for fantasy leagues, he's locked into the second spot in the Tigers lineup, which has helped him score 37 runs already. Candelario was almost free in drafts, with an ADP around 350, and he has been one of the really nice values of the first 12 weeks of the season. For the sake of the playoff spots in the American League, which look to be almost locked up already (barring a Mariners summer meltdown), it would be fun to see the Tigers hang in the Central race a little longer.
