The Wheelhouse: NL LABR Review

Every trip I make to Arizona is a path to wonder what might have been.

In 2009, my wife was on the final waiting list for admission into medical school. For most of that summer, we anxiously awaited a phone call telling us that it was time to pack up and leave Madison for the next chapter of our life together. With a mere three years of experience in the fantasy industry on my resume, I was facing the possibility of having to figure out the next step in my career. As the "trailing spouse" I would have been tasked with finding employment to pay the bills. Somehow, that term seems wildly inappropriate for the spouses of graduate students of any kind.

The call never came. We've stayed in Madison in the years since, and there hasn't been a big fork in the road for us during that time.

I try to imagine where I would be professionally, without getting a chance to host shows on Sirius-XM Fantasy Sports Radio, head up the day-to-day baseball coverage at RotoWire, and compete in the top industry leagues on an annual basis. Of course, that doesn't even mention the number of great colleagues and friends I've made along the way.

Fantasy auctions are the best "what-if" strategy machines of all. Every player in the pool is accessible, and the price is unknown, opening up infinite possibilities for roster construction.

Many of the teams I've built in auctions have a stars-and-scrubs structure. Driving that approach is my belief that you will almost certainly have to overpay for something or someone over the course of an auction, especially if it's an AL or NL-only league. I'm more willing to spend the extra dollars at the top of the player pool to get Clayton Kershaw, Nolan Arenado, or Kris Bryant than I am to push up the bidding for mid-tier talent in the $15-20 range.

As you review the results of any auction, keep one thing in mind. The order in which players are sold has a major impact on the dollar values listed next to their name. In the AL LABR Auction, Clay Link's $45 purchase of Jose Altuve looks strange with the $42 next to Mike Trout at the $39 next to Mookie Betts. If you know that Altuve was the first player sold of the bunch, it's easier to understand how and why things may have split that way.

My hope was to build around Kershaw and Bryant, with top bids of $44 and $37, respectively. Regardless of whether I had Kershaw or Bryant on my roster, I had no intention of paying up for saves during the auction.

I made a poor choice in the bidding for Kershaw by jumping in at $43 and not just pushing him from $42 to $44 in order to squeeze another dollar out of Derek Carty, and to improve my chances of ending up with Kershaw. Bryant hit my max number after I had a crack at him in the mid-30s, going to Glenn Colton, Rick Wolf, and Stacie Stern.

So much for planning the first two buys in advance.

Instead, I started with Joey Votto at $29, the 19th player sold. Given my aggressive tendencies at the beginning of auctions, it felt like I was without a player for an eternity. Four players later, I secured Trevor Story for $26, excited by the potential power payoff in a full season, and comforted by the fact that Story's worst category should be offset nicely by Votto's excellent batting average.

With two big bats in tow, the immediate focus shifted to the top of my pitching staff. Kershaw at $44 and Max Scherzer at $28 were already gone, and I wanted one of Madison Bumgarner or Noah Syndergaard, but they sold back-to-back at $30 and $31, respectively -- slightly above my comfort level. After Jon Lester sold at $24 and Jake Arrieta went for $23, I knew my options were thinning out. I was surprised to land Johnny Cueto at $22, figuring that he would require $2-3 more with the dwindling supply of No. 1 starters. From there, the hope was that I could walk away with Jacob deGrom, who was lighting up the radar gun in his most recent spring start, for $17-18 as a second ace. ESPN's Eric Karabell ensured that didn't happen, topping out at $20 for my darkhorse NL Cy Young pick.

The foundation of my roster did not have a $30+ player for the first time in my four years competing in NL LABR, which generated a slightly more balanced look than I am accustomed to.

The full results of the auction can be viewed here.

The purchase list in the order of nomination for the entire auction can be viewed here.

Here's how the rest of my team came together in the hours that followed.

C -- Yasmani Grandal -- $13 -- My initial mock team had two $1 catchers, but Grandal ended up falling in at a very fair price. With a batting average anchor, I would much rather take the hit with a catcher since the average is going to be driven in with fewer than 400 at-bats. The expectation here is another season with a .220-.230 average, a mid-20 homer total, and a steady number of RBI given his frequent use in the middle-third of the Dodgers' lineup.

C -- Andrew Susac -- $3 -- Susac was a second-round pick of the Giants in 2011. Of course, he was blocked by Buster Posey during his time in the organization and injuries have hampered him since a 2014 debut that included .792 OPS in a very light 35-game sample. The Brewers acquired Susac in the Will Smith deal last summer, and while their addition of Jett Bandy over the winter makes playing time an open competition, I trust Susac's track record as a hitter in the high minors more than I trust Bandy's eight homers in 70 games with the Halos last summer.

1B -- Joey Votto -- $29 -- The Steamer projection regresses Votto's batting average to .288. He's never hit less than .297 in a healthy, complete season with the Reds. Another .300-25-95-95-8 season seems likely.

2B -- Logan Forsythe -- $14 -- I'm not going overboard with the power expectations for Forsythe after a 20-homer campaign in 127 games for the Rays last season, but I think he's the type of player who does everything well enough to be a 4.5-category player in an NL-only league. Where he lands in the lineup will go a long way toward shaping his contributions in runs scored v. RBI, but he'll get a slight bump overall with the move to Los Angeles as the Dodgers scored 53 more runs than the Rays in 2016.

SS -- Trevor Story -- $26 -- Story's 31.3% K% last season makes it difficult for him to maintain a .272 average going forward without some improvement. As a second-year player at age-24, it's hardly out of the question. Keep in mind that he pushed his strikeout rate below 30.0% in June and July, before a thumb injury ended his season. Additionally, Story flashed more stolen base upside (and efficiency) in the minors than he did as a rookie with the Rockies last season. I'm expecting some combination of 40 homers and steals, with excellent supporting run and RBI totals.

3B -- Hernan Perez -- $10 -- Perez and Eduardo Nunez are two of the most difficult players to project this season. As a versatile backup, Perez appeared at every position other than pitcher and catcher for the Brewers in 2015. He's positioned behind a left-handed starter in Travis Shaw at third base and Eric Thames at first, plus the Brewers may want to give Ryan Braun the occasional maintenance day in lefty to help keep him fresh. I'm hoping for .250, 6-8 HR, and 25-plus steals from Perez on the league's most aggressive base-stealing club.

CI -- Tommy La Stella -- $1 -- In hindsight, I should have punted an outfield spot, and spent up low double-digits to fill the corner. La Stella will help very slightly in batting average, but there is minimal power and nothing to squeeze out of him from a stolen-base perspective. It's hard to see more than a 25th-man role for La Stella as long as he remains with the Cubs.

MI -- Brandon Phillips -- $9 -- Filling in and looking for low double-digit steals speed on the bottom half of my roster, I landed on Phillips at an affordable price. The batting average floor is probably in the .260s, but Phillips has delivered consecutive seasons in the low .290s. He'll turn 36 in June, and I doubt I will own any shares in deep mixed leagues, but I think I could have done much worse in the effort to fill this spot.

OF -- Kyle Schwarber -- $21 -- Schwarber has been getting chances to lead off this spring, and while he doesn't offer anything that resembles typical top-of-the-order speed, his OBP skills will lead him to plenty of runs scored if that plans holds up once the season begins. Like many leagues, LABR requires five games behind the plate in season to add eligibility. If that happens, great, but my interest in Schwarber comes from his combination of 30-homer pop and potential to be an asset in the batting average category, which wasn't the case in his rookie campaign in 2014. Of course, scaling the power expectation for a player who may only start 75-80% of the time is necessary given the current build of the Cubs' roster.

OF -- Stephen Piscotty -- $20 -- Maybe it's because the power exceeded a lot of expectations last year, but I really like Piscotty as a rock-solid option in the mid-rounds of mixed league drafts, and as a low-20s option in this format. Even if there isn't another level, I'll be very satisfied with .270-20-80-80-5 from him.

OF -- Travis Jankowski -- $13 -- In an auction where Domingo Santana was also $13, I'm frustrated. Unfortunately, Jankowski was a necessary piece in my pursuit of steals after the Votto-Story foundation started this roster. Even if the younger, more dynamic players in the San Diego outfield hold the three starting jobs throughout the season, I think we'll see enough Jankowski as the backup at all three positions for him to steal 25-30 bags with relative ease. It remains to be seen if he can cut his strikeout rate to anything that resembles his minor league numbers (12.5% at Double-A in 2014 and 2015), but I'll stomach the sub-optimal batting average when a speedster shows the ability to walk and utilize his wheels as Jankowski did a year ago.

OF -- Jason Heyward -- $12 -- This buy was panned on Twitter almost immediately after it happened. Maybe Heyward is just broken forever, but he doesn't have to be great to earn $12 in this format. Even while flailing away and leading all qualified hitters in Soft Hit% in 2016, Heyward chipped in seven homers and 11 steals with 110 runs + RBI. Last season, Heyward was worth $7 in this format. Sometimes the bottom falls out (remember B.J. Upton before he was Melvin Upton?) and we're left with something even worse than we thought was possible. For better or worse, I'm not ready to give up on Heyward yet, and his rebuilt swing may be the key to getting back to his pre-2016 levels.

OF -- Hunter Renfroe -- $11 -- Renfroe showed big power at Triple-A El Paso last season, swatting 30 homers before a late-season look in San Diego. Since arriving at Triple-A in 2015, he hasn't walked much, but Renfroe has managed to keep his strikeout rate near 20.0%. There isn't much on the depth chart in San Diego to push him for the starting job in right field, and Renfroe has little left to prove in the PCL, so he should have a lot of leash with a regular job to begin the season. Keep in mind that El Paso boosted home runs by 25% compared to the league average in 2016, so this is more likely to be a 20-homer bat in 2017 than a 25-30 homer one.

UT -- Austin Meadows -- $1 -- Unless one of the regulars gets hurt, we're not going to see Meadows until the later part of 2017. The benefit of paying $1 for him is having flexibility in my lineup. LABR rules forbid active players from reserving players purchased in the auction unless they on the DL, or sent to the minors.

P -- Johnny Cueto -- $22 -- Just keep him out of Kansas City. Compared to the prices of the other top starters in the auction, I was very pleased to walk away with Cueto at $22. He was excellent in Year 1 with the Giants despite losing at least one mph from all but one pitch in his arsenal.

P -- Jameson Taillon -- $14 -- If the Verducci Effect were still a thing (well, maybe it is still something that Tom Verducci writes up...let's say if people still believed in it), there would be plenty of owners afraid of Taillon. He closed out last season on a high note, including a 3.20 ERA with a 64:12 K:BB over his last 76 innings. It's reasonable to think that Taillon might be more valuable than Gerrit Cole in 2017 as there should be another level coming with his strikeout rate.

P -- Jeff Samardzija -- $10 -- The old Samardzija K-rates are gone, but he's become much more stable with his walk rate over the last three seasons. In mixers, adjusting the lineup is helpful since Shark had a 4.03 ERA on the road last season compared to a 3.53 mark at home, but keep in mind that the overarching problem was the long ball. His slash line against was actually better on the road (.236/.283/.404), despite the fact that he allowed 17 of his 24 homers outside of AT&T Park.

P -- Ivan Nova -- $9 -- Nova's improved walk rate started with the Yankees last season, but it went to ridiculous levels (0.42 BB/9) after he was traded to Pittsburgh. A full season outside of the AL East under the tutelage of Ray Searge, while he reaps the benefits of PNC Park for his home starts is very appealing. A career-high in innings (think 180 or so) may be on tap to drive home his improved ratios.

P -- Jerad Eickhoff -- $9 -- Eickhoff was hardly alone in seeing a home-run rate spike last season. He's demonstrated a consistent ability to avoid hurting himself with free passes, however, and a career 3.44 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 248.1 innings with the Phillies is seemingly overlooked in many draft rooms.

P -- Mike Foltynewicz -- $7 -- If you're looking for cases of players making it back from surgery to address Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Foltynewicz is one of them. He's always had a great arm, but Foltynewicz had a career-best (across all levels) 2.55 BB/9 last season.

P -- Carter Capps -- $3 -- It may turn out where I punt saves, but Capps could emerge as the Padres' preferred ninth-inning man once he proves he's ready to shut down opposing hitters again following Tommy John surgery. In his final season with the Marlins, he struck out an MLB-leading 49.2% of the batters he faced in 2015. Even as a setup guy, the strikeouts and ratios from Capps could be worth more than $3 in a league like this one.

P -- Hector Rondon -- $2 -- Rondon's limited looks in October were the result of a triceps injury that spiked his ratios late in the year. If Wade Davis succumbs to an arm injury after dealing with forearm problems last season, Rondon's experience and success as a closer likely puts him ahead of Carl Edwards Jr. in the pecking order for saves.

P -- David Phelps -- $1 -- The Marlins have only given Phelps one inning in each of his first two appearances this spring and it appears that he's destined to return to the bullpen in 2017. While I am not expecting save opportunities here, his dominance last season is appealing even if he's used in a multi-inning relief role.

R -- Brett Lawrie, 2B -- Most of the teams interested appear to be in the American League, but Lawrie could help my corner-infield problem if he lands in the right situation with an NL team in the coming weeks. Otherwise, he's an automatic cut.

R -- Pedro Strop, P -- I'm looking for ratios, Ks, and a handful of relief wins from the bottom three pitching spots on my roster. Strop is a lot like Hector Rondon in many ways, but just a little further from the ninth inning if Wade Davis gets hurt.

R -- Gorkys Hernandez, OF -- Without Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco, Hernandez appears to be the Giants' new fourth outfielder following a .302/.382/.421 line with eight homers and 20 steals (33 attempts) in 116 games at Triple-A last season. This is purely a cheap speed dart.

R -- Scott Van Slyke, OF -- The Dodgers like Van Slyke enough to platoon him in the outfield or at first base with Adrian Gonzalez. If he's healthy, a handful of homers from the fifth outfield or utility spot will suffice.

R -- Eddie Butler, P -- Stranger things have happened. He's allowed multiple runs in two of his first three appearances this spring, so it may take a little while for Chris Bosio and the Cubs' staff to turn Butler's talent into a useful piece of the puzzle.

R -- Rio Ruiz, 3B -- If Adonis Garcia struggles, Ruiz could overtake him as the Braves' starting third baseman. The corner-infield prospects on the radar for a big league callup in the National League aren't great other than the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger. Ruiz, who turns 23 in May, already has a full season at Triple-A under his belt. He may not be a great piece for owners seeking 20-plus homers annually in keeper leagues, but Ruiz could prove useful in deeper one-year formats.

A few quick observations:

The closer pool in the NL feels riskier than usual in the mid-tier. Kenley Jansen, Seung Hwan Oh, and Mark Melancon seem locked in, but compared to the AL, the next wave has questions: Jeurys Familia (potential suspension), Wade Davis (arm), Tony Watson (stability), A.J. Ramos (fear of Bear Claw), Shawn Kelley (Dusty), etc.

Aaron Nola at $12 is a steal for Dalton Del Don. He looked like a top-20 starting pitcher before injuries caught up to him midseason.

The Colton/Wolf/Stern trio snuck Brandon Finnegan past the room for $3 early on. There is risk in throwing a potentially cheap player you like as a sleeper early, but he probably fetches $3-4 more if he's nominated with other pitchers in his tier.

The discount on Max Scherzer in recent drafts has been similar to the discount Steve Gardner received on him last weekend ($28, with Madison Bumgarner at $30 and Noah Syndergaard at $31). Scherzer fell to 3.6 in a 12-team mixed league draft comprised of Sirius-XM hosts this week.

Jhonny Peralta at $6 to Derek Carty looks like one of the best cheap position player buys of the auction. Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko may end up sharing second base, with Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, and Peralta handling most of the time at the other three infield spots.