This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: NCAA Baseball Tournament 2024 Best Bets
JohnnyVTV is in his element. You know how much doing this every week during the regular season means to me. I live for it. And while it makes me a bit sad the season has gone by in a blink, we're entering the Lion's Den with June arriving. Think of every great event in a calendar year. Christmas, Thanksgiving, St. Patty's Day, 4th of July, a birthday, the day you get married, the day you get divorced then combine them all together. THIS is what College Baseball is like in June.
You have the Regionals, then Super Regionals, then the final eight teams make up the College World Series in Omaha. 64 teams will enter, but only one will be left standing.
The cool thing is you can find several different markets (and prices) across various books. There's a ton of action, so let's take a look at the future bets I have given out for each round. This won't include every future I have, but my picks are listed here.
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NCAA Baseball Picks To Win the Region
Each region is comprised of 16 host sites with four teams each. In my opinion, this is generally the hardest round to get out of because you may have to win four games to advance in this double elimination format. If a team goes 3-0, they will be moving on. The difficulty lies in needing a lot of pitching depth and having to plan to play multiple teams in a weekend.
I'm giving my prices out from couple days ago when I took them at the open, so there may have been some shifts that have occurred, but after checking what the movements have been I still think the current numbers are good to go. If something has gotten steamed too heavily, then I will leave it out.
Georgia Bulldogs (#7 overall seed; Host) - Athens Region +100
There may very well be no team that got more favors than UGA in this tournament. Even after the 39-15 (17-13 in SEC) Bulldogs lost the last series of the weekend to Florida and lost the first game of the SEC Tournament to LSU, the committee saw them deserving of a top eight national seed, which means they would be able to host both a Regional and Super Regional. Despite other teams being more deserving, it's a big advantage for UGA considering they went 29-5 at home this season.
They also got one of the most favorable draws contending with UNCW, Georgia Tech, and Army. Despite the serious question mark at pitching, it should be enough to take down a weaker field when you consider this is a top lineup in the nation led by Charlie Condon, the dude who may go number one in the MLB Draft this summer. The Dawgs' 140 tanks this season rank third in the nation, and second of anybody in the tournament only to Tennessee's 147.
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LSU Tigers (2nd seed) - Chapel Hill Region +110
LSU is one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won four of their last five series and won four games in the SEC Tournament, only to lose by one to Tennessee in the finals. The reemergence of their top two pitchers, Gage Jump and Luke Holman, have drawn a lot of eyeballs. With both of them heated up recently, they become a tough out with the ability to both give their team a chance to win. As the top two starters in this region, they can neutralize a dangerous UNC (host) offense that is led by super star CF Vance Honeycutt, a sure fire first rounder this summer.
Pitching matters in this playoff format, but the Tigers also have a lineup that can swing it. Their lineup notched 45 runs in the five games of the conference tournament. Led by Tommy "Tanks" White, another first-rounder in '24, the Tigers have a potent balance of pitching and hitting.
Also, the fact that the reigning champs have been here before plays a big role in knowing how to navigate this exhausting format.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (2nd seed) - Charlottesville Region +145
While UGA has been the team that's gotten the red carpet from the committee, no team (in my opinion), has gotten shafted harder than Mississippi State. The team that won two more conference games than UGA and won the head-to-head not only doesn't host, but they are a two seed in Virginia's region.
Nevertheless, State is a team that boasts one of the best starting rotations in the tournament. With first-team All-SEC Khal Stephen commanding the Friday night spot, they also have the massively improved switch-pitcher, Jurrangelo Cijntje in the Saturday spot. The early season Friday guy, Nate Dohm, just returned from a lengthy injury absence too. The 4.15 team ERA was 12th best in the country this season, and ninth among tournament teams.
The offense disappeared a bit in the conference tournament thanks to outrageous slumps from their best two hitters, Hunter Hines and Dakota Jordan, who went a combined 1-34. If at least one of those studs gets right, they can make the run this year. If both do, then they can win it.
Matching up against an elite UVA offense that is one of the best in the country, the pitching will be heavily relied on. The upside is UVA's pitching is a disaster (team 5.60 ERA), so if State can average just six runs per game, they can not only win the region, but the whole thing. I've been buying this team since January, and since they are my largest single futures ticket, I have no choice but to ride until the wheels come off.
Oregon Ducks (3 seed) - Santa Barbara Region +350 0.5u
I wasn't particularly high on Oregon coming into this year, and I didn't do a ton of betting on them. But as it always does, the draw matters! There are not many three seeds I like more than the Ducks to steal a region. It was a solid year for Oregon, who went 37-18 (19-11 in Pac 12) this season.
I believe this is one of the biggest upset alert regions with UC Santa Barbara as the host. UCSB didn't really beat anybody of note this season playing in the Big West. They lost to then #16 UC Irvine, lost to Cal Poly. The big wins for the Gauchos were sweeps against these Ducks and UConn.
I would expect a little payback from Oregon that bolsters a solid pitching staff (4.80 team ERA) led by Grayson Grinsell and RJ Gordon. The long ball was the issue as they allowed 26 between the two, but luckily, UCSB isn't known for their offense as they tallied just 79 homers this season (73rd).
Of course, before these two can play on Saturday, the Ducks need to get past a tough San Diego team that won the West Coast Conference. The Toreros struggled this year when playing good competition as their only big win was early in the year vs. Arizona. This is definitely a region up for grabs.
Duke Blue Devils (2nd seed) - Norman Region +115
By now Duke is the favorite in most places and trending around -130 give or take. That's still a good price in my opinion. They are easily the best and most talented team in this region. Because of the homefield advantage in College Baseball, Oklahoma is garnering some respect as the host. If this series was being played with Duke as the host, then they would be pushing at least -200.
I've been talking about the Blue Devils all year. It's a team I fully believe can win the College World Series. Other than Arkansas, I don't see anybody else having a better front-to-back pitching staff. They have arguably the best closer in the sport in Charlie Beilenson (1.98 ERA; 12 Saves). Their Friday guy, Jonathan Santucci, is a legit first-round candidate. The offense is extremely dangerous with six players in double-figure taters and seven with an average of .300 or better.
Oklahoma is no slouch, but it's not the same team that went on that magical run in 2022. Their offensive prowess is being a prolific base-stealing team (91-115). The top two starters, Braden Davis and Kyson Witherspoon, are both solid. But at the end of the day, Duke is a team that is comprised of one of the best rosters in the entire sport.
Dallas Baptist Patriots (2nd seed) - Tucson Region +180
The Dallas Bombers are often regarded as one of the top mid-major programs in the sport. And this year was no different. A 44-win squad, the Patriots are a bargain in Arizona's region. There are prices fluctuating from +140 to +190, and some even have them as the favorite. Like the Santa Barbara region, this is high on my upset alert list.
What makes DBU dangerous? For starters, they can win on the road (14-7 this year). Talent wise, they have a legit ace in Ryan Johnson, a guy who has been at least a top six arm this season. In fact, Johnson's 1.98 ERA was second in the nation to only Hagen Smith, while his 147 K's were third to Chase Burns and Smith. Teams with any kind of hope to win usually need an ace like this to rely on. Of course, they have some other solid dudes as well like Jason DeBerry and stud closer, Conner Mackay.
Offensively, they're called the Dallas Bombers for a reason. The 111 team homers ranked as the 15th most this season, and is ninth best among tournament teams. While four players are in double digits, their big dog is the '25 top ten candidate, catcher Grant Jay (21 homers). The lineup is a combo of power, speed, and average. It's definitely one of my favorite dark horses to make a run.
Before they can get Zona, DBU has to get past a solid West Virginia team that is headlined by JJ Wetherholt, the preseason number-one overall pick. The big question for this game one is if DBU will elect to throw Johnson and burn him for a potential game two showdown against Zona, or try to save him and see if DeBerry can get the job done. One of the toughest things about this tournament is deciding how teams will attack the pitching. A lot of times coaches will opt to throw their second best guy in the first game, though it is not always the case. My best handicap here is to take both DBU and Arizona (+190) since it's likely one of the two wins the region, which would net you a profit.
For the rest of my picks, check out my Twitter @_JohnnyVTV to keep tabs on all my picks.
