Mound Musings: Their Stock Is on the Rise

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there has been even more (than usual) erratic pitching results. Some pitchers have enjoyed some success, and that always leads to decisions on whether or not they should be added to your fantasy targets. Even good teams with the very best pitching are sometimes shaking their heads. Even with good beginnings, many arms won't post long-term value as the hitters get in synch and get in a hitting groove. However, some pitchers will actually dominate. They are angling on having stellar years, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have seriously impressed me with both solid numbers, and future potential at this early point in the season. This is a mix of young and old, kids and veterans, trying to convince me they are fantasy stars. Every year a handful of pitchers break through with a first career year, and early returns suggest these might be some of the more likely.

You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:

Luis Castillo (Mariners) – I have been a writer for years and have a broad vocabulary, but I have a hard time finding words adequate to describe La Piedra. He looked good in his spring innings, and has shown an amazing upside in his early season outings. He has a microscopic ERA and WHIP and they are legitimate. His K:BB is probably my favorite stat currently at 26:4 over 24 innings. Sure, a higher strikeout rate would be great, but I'll take this (he could easily surprise us with higher). He showed a lot of promise in Cincinnati and I was pretty sure the move to Seattle would be the icing on the cake. Just go down the checklist – excellent stuff, great movement, pinpoint command, and he pitches on a young and exciting team that just figures to get better. There just aren't any real chinks in his armor in my eyes.

MacKenzie Gore (Nationals) – I've liked just about everything about Gore since the first time I saw him pitch. He eventually made it to the top of my kids list, and I was preparing for a big splash. Unfortunately, he missed time with injuries, and the pandemic came at an awful time, slowing his development so we've had to be patient. He began to drop on many prospects lists as he struggled, but I have a long memory, and I was pretty confident he would get things back together. At his best, he has a full repertoire of above average offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His command was generally good before the injuries. He works up and down in the zone, and everything moves. I can almost promise a few more bumps in the road as he settles in, and being with the Nationals is no help, but he's back, and close to taking a step forward.

Spencer Strider (Braves) – Strider is one of those guys who occasionally pulls the wool over my eyes. When he first arrived, he looked okay, but he didn't make me drool. Then I watched him again, and he looked better. Rinse and repeat. A distinct pattern quickly developed. Every time he stepped on the mound he looked better. That's actually fairly rare. Pitchers usually give you a pretty good idea of what they have after only a handful of starts. I'm not sure I can adequately explain it. His command is improving, but even more so, he is generating more movement on his pitches, and his mound demeanor, a direct offshoot of confidence, is off the charts. I hesitate to label his ceiling, because I'm not sure he won't just surpass it, and keep going. I wish I owned more of him.

Nick Lodolo (Reds) – Here's one I have been touting for a long time. Lodolo is quickly making a name for himself, and that's not easy pitching for the lowly Reds.  In four starts he has logged a pair of wins and notched a very impressive 31 strikeouts in just 22 innings. He misses bats with the elite. Interestingly, his overall stats are possibly somewhat understated as he carries a ridiculously high .448 BABIP despite a solid rate of softly hit balls. He has been, it often seems, the king of bloop. The Reds don't field the best defense in the league, but that is sure to normalize. Lodolo features a nice, moving fastball, but I love that curveball. He could use a bit better command, and like most kids the occasional meltdown is possible, but I really like where he's going.

Joe Ryan (Twins) – The Twins aren't quite in the same category as a handful of other teams when it comes to transforming ordinary pitchers into stars, but they are working on it. I wanted to limit this list to one pitcher per team, and that wasn't easy here with guys like Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, and Ryan all staking a claim. Ryan has been something of a work in progress, and its working. He scrapped his slider and replaced it with a big sweeping curve. Then he replaced his changeup with a sharp breaking splitter. And, he's throwing everything for strikes. I suppose its possible he is fooling hitters with these new pitches that they aren't used to seeing from him, and they will eventually catch on, but I don't think so. He appears more comfortable than ever with his new repertoire, and that bodes well for him.

Kodai Senga (Mets) – These last couple of guys are perhaps a bit more speculative. I'm not quite ready to tag them with an "elite" endorsement, at least not yet, but they have done some things to warrant a lot of attention. Senga has shown enough to easily earn a roster spot on your fantasy team. And, his peripherals don't paint an accurate picture.  For example, in his recent start against Oakland, bloops were dropping everywhere and he had to sit in the dugout for over 30 minutes between two of the first four innings as the hilarious A's pitchers were on their way to walking 17 Mets. It was ridiculous. He has struck out 21 in just 16 innings, and there is more where that came from. If you think you can talk his owner into an innocent trade, I'd be making a call.

Reid Detmers (Angels) – Here's another possible flyer. His 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP don't necessarily suggest impending stardom, but he's tossing a lot of hints even better days are in his future. I liked what I initially saw in him, but he recently attended Driveline and that frequently improves things. They are all about base efficiency and cleaner mechanics. His velocity has jumped a couple miles per hour, and his command also appears to be coming along. His strikeout rate is also up slightly so the possibility of better results is there. No guarantee, but a solid flyer helps your staff a lot.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Every time I gush over someone like Castillo, Yankees fans immediately ask, "what about Gerrit Cole?" Okay. Fair enough. I love Cole, but I think he may already be at his career ceiling. He's a couple years older than Castillo, and he perhaps relies just a bit more on pure power. But I'll take him any day.
• A guy who has quietly garnered some attention is Pittsburgh's Johan Oviedo. After getting spanked in his first start against Boston, he shut down both the Cardinals and the White Sox. I saw part of the Chicago game and he was fairly sharp. He is both generating more groundballs and missing more bats.
• The Rays' Shane McClanahan would have made the above list too if I thought anyone would buy into him taking another major step forward. I suppose he could improve a bit. With slightly better command, his ratio could drop below 1.00, and I could see his strikeout rate creeping higher, but its hard to ask for more.
• I was anxious to see Jack Flaherty again and there was good and not so good in his start against Arizona. He had a rough start (hits by the first two batters), but he settled in despite getting behind in the count far too often. He can throw strikes when needed, but he isn't doing it until he's behind in the count.
• Oakland's Mason Miller made his much-anticipated debut. He's legit. If he throws a fastball (he's pretty much a two-pitch pitcher) it's going to be triple digits. His command wavered and velocity dipped a bit especially later in the outing, and an anemic A's offense didn't help. It will be learning on the job.

Endgame Odyssey:

Only three weeks into the season and we're already seeing the bullpen shuffle. Over the past week or so we have seen a few "non-closers" log saves. Workload concerns and lack of quality options for the ninth inning both contributed, and it's likely to continue. Most notably, a few stubborn ninth-inning place-markers are making it hard on the best closer to claim the gig. In Seattle, Andres Munoz picked a bad time to suffer a sore shoulder. He'll be back soon, but Paul Sewald is trying to close the door on him. I still think Carl Edwards is the best closer option in Washington, but the incumbent, Kyle Finnegan, needs to fumble a few chances to give him a shot. I also feel David Robertson of the Mets is blocking a superior alternative. Unfortunately, with Edwin Diaz on the shelf, I'm not sure there is a superior option on the team. I slightly favor Adam Ottavino, but I'm not certain he's the answer. Surprising as it may be, the A's will win a few games this year and right now we're not sure who would get a save chance. Closer Dany Jimenez is out long term with a shoulder injury and Trevor May followed him to the IL. Maybe Domingo Acevedo when he comes back? I also wouldn't be surprised to see veteran Jeurys Familia in the ninth. Stay tuned. And, following completion of his treatment regimen, White Sox closer Liam Hendriks has been declared cancer-free. That has to be the best news of the season, and I can't wait to see him back on the mound.

Here's a special tribute:

Early each season I think of an all-time favorite player – Mark "the Bird" Fidrych – who pitched in MLB from 1976-80, mostly with the Detroit Tigers, before a torn rotator cuff ended his all too brief career. IMHO he did as much as any individual to revive a "national pastime" that was pretty snoozy at the time. He "manicured" the mound, chatted with himself, and he talked to the ball before pitches, and the crowds went wild! In fact, attendance at Tiger Stadium more than doubled for games when "the Bird" pitched. Sadly, Fidrych passed away in a truck repair accident on April 13, 2009. I will never forget him! How many readers had a chance to see him?

Every coin has a flip side, and so it is with lists like this. As readers know, I am patient, probably to a fault, but I am ready to run up the white flag on a few arms. Next week we'll look at some pitchers who may be wearing out welcomes on fantasy rosters.