Mound Musings: Some Observations From the Mound

It seems like we always have something new to ponder as we evaluate our pitching in the fantasy scheme of things. Last year, we had an awful pandemic to contend with. There was spring training, then it stopped, then it resumed, and, finally in August, teams began an abbreviated season. We had to try to decide what impact it would have on pitchers who notoriously adhere to highly regimented routines. Some teams (and players) were seriously affected by it all, including positive screening tests, which often disrupted many players for weeks at a time. We got through it, but there was a residual impact on this year, which we are likely to feel more and more as the season progresses. Pitchers, especially relief pitchers, are already showing signs of fatigue.

There are also tests in progress to assess some possible future rule changes. Limiting defensive shifts, larger bases to make stealing easier, and even moving the mound back are all on the table. The objective is to create more offense, limiting the strikeouts, and presumably increasing the runs scored per game. To be honest, I think some teams, especially those in smaller markets and with limited money to spend, are seeing how difficult it can be to compete with teams that have almost limitless resources. In recent weeks, I have actually seen a few bunts, and hitters taking the ball the opposite way to beat the stacked defenses. It was extremely refreshing.

All that said, some changes are being made effective immediately. Most notably, there is a movement in place to eliminate foreign substances applied to balls. The bottom line is, a stickier ball is easier to grip. If you can grip the ball better, you can throw it harder without losing much movement because the improved grip allows for a higher spin rate, and the ball still breaks. The counter argument says reduced grip will result in diminished control. That means more walks, and more hit batters, among other things. The new stricter enforcement began earlier this week. Maybe we should take a moment to speculate on the long- and short-term impact of this rule being strictly enforced. Brad Johnson discusses the ban on applying foreign substances to balls, and offers readers a report card on Jacob deGrom.

The Low Spin Zone: This past Monday (June 21), the stricter enforcement with regular inspections began. Notably, the first pitcher to be subjected to the routine inspection was Jacob deGrom (he passed). In reality, with this coming, use of foreign substances has probably already declined significantly. From a fantasy perspective, our challenge will be determining which pitchers will be impacted, and by how much. Making it difficult, all pitchers did not use sticky substances, and we really have no way of knowing who did, and who did not. Our only option is to watch and see who experiences a change.

I do think use will be virtually eliminated. Being caught means a 10-game suspension, and, more importantly, the suspended player cannot be replaced on the active roster. Already strained, teams with overworked pitching staffs won't be able to take that kind of hit. As it progresses, an occasional pitcher might try to sneak a substance through the inspections, but it's likely to be very rare.

The early returns suggest batting averages will improve, but walk rates, already at ridiculous levels, will also be on the rise. My gut feel is the impact will be far worse among "throwers" as opposed to "pitchers" resulting in an even bigger gap between quality pitchers and cannon fodder.

The Jacob deGrom Report Card: I have been focused on pitching for a very long time. I remember watching Bob Gibson in 1968 when he registered a 1.12 ERA and almost single-handedly brought about rules to handicap pitching. I was even more impressed with the amazing Pedro Martinez in the early part of this century when he was beyond dominating in the age of steroids. Those are just two of the most significant pitchers in the history of the game, but we might be watching a pitcher with similar skills. How does deGrom measure up to pitchers like Gibson and Martinez?

It has been said that pitchers are able to retire opposing hitters based on four factors (not including luck that comes into play when that hitter smokes a ball at 112 mph right at your second baseman):

1. Overall stuff – What do you have in the toolbox? A triple-digit fastball? A filthy cutter? A disappearing changeup? All of the above? It is almost mandatory for a MLB starting pitcher to have at least three quality pitches at his disposal.
2. Ability to locate – Can the pitcher throw any of their pitches, not just for strikes, but for quality strikes, located in specific parts of the strike zone? Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command takes that a step further.
3. Changing speeds – Major league hitters can hit pitches at any velocity if they expect them, they don't include much movement and they aren't well located. For a hitter, timing is everything so changing speeds is critical.
4. Efficient mechanics – This really includes both a repeatable motion, and, as a bonus, a motion that is deceptive or otherwise makes it hard for a hitter to identify. Truthfully, all consistently good pitching starts with mechanics.

So, using these criteria, where does deGrom grade out?

I almost don't know where to start. Pitchers typically need three quality offerings to succeed. DeGrom has five, and all of them are at least above average. Most notably, his four-seam fastball routinely hits triple digits with excellent movement. His repertoire has allowed him to generate a 0.50 ERA with a 0.51 WHIP over 12 starts. Across those 12 starts he has yet to allow more than one earned run in any outing – including goose eggs over his last five starts. So much for the drop-off with no sticky stuff.

Location is what really sets deGrom apart in my opinion. He throws all of his pitches for strikes (he has walked just 10 hitters in 72 innings) and opposing hitters cannot sit on any one pitch. Not only does he dot the strike zone pitch after pitch, he rarely catches much of the plate (only 2.6 percent barrels, allowing just three home runs, with a microscopic – yet realistic given the contact – .218 BABIP). 

As you might guess, not only does he work up, down, inside and outside, he easily changes speeds with his variety of offerings. His variance in speeds isn't really unusual, but when you shift everything up a few ticks with 102 mph fastballs, reaction time is very restricted. When you have to look first for a triple-digit fastball to have any chance of catching up to it, something/anything off speed is going to throw your timing off.

And, then there are the mechanics. All the other factors relate back to this. He has a smooth, repeatable delivery. His release point is the same for all of his pitches, and with the smooth motion, the velocity comes easy without sacrificing command. He has had some minor injuries, causing everyone to hold their breath, but even his most recent shoulder issue was reportedly incurred during an at bat – yeah, he's an excellent hitting pitcher as well. The Mets do appear to be doing all they can to keep a lid on his innings, so hopefully he can stay healthy over the second half of the year.

Simply stated, at least right now, there are no chinks in his armor. Perhaps the great baseball minds will rediscover the value of focusing young, developing pitchers on clean repeatable mechanics? The benefits are significantly better command and nearly the same high velocity, but with far less stress, so improved durability. The downside? Well, honestly, I can't think of any downside.

Fantasy Frustrations or Don't You Hate It When …

- Your pitcher impressively strikes out a hitter with his 75th pitch of the evening while holding a 7-2 lead. The bases are empty, but there are just two outs in the fifth inning, and the pitch count clock is chiming. The manager pops out of the dugout and ambles to the mound while the P.A. announcer eerily quotes the 15th century English poet, John Donne, "Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee." Can't you at least let him finish the damn inning? Goodbye W.

- After the hitter fouls off a dozen pitches, the bored umpire calls ball four on a pitch taken, but clearly over the plate. Desperately in need of a quick inning, your pitcher starts it all over again. The next hitter comes out of his shoes on the first two pitches, missing both by a good six inches, but then the fun begins anew. Ball one. Foul drifts into the stands. Foul, he just got a piece of it. Ball two, just missed. Foul. Foul …

- You're falling behind in the Wins category despite some pretty good outings from your starters. No worries. Your best pitcher should finally have two starts this week. Let's check the schedule. Hmmm. Your archrival's ace has two starts, too. At home against Bedrock (B. Rubble) and at home against Arizona (whoever hasn't pitched recently for Triple-A Reno). Ahhh here's your guy. At home against the Mets (J. deGrom) and at Colorado (TBA). Maybe it will snow in Denver that day? 

- And, it's been a good day so far. The ERA is dropping just a bit, and this looks like a good chance to pick up a W. Your pitcher is in a little jam, but there are two outs. Fairly routine fly ball to left. That should get him out of it. Clank. A three base error clears the bags, cutting the lead to two runs, but at least they are unearned. Wait. A scoring change. They are giving him a triple. All three runs are now earned. Change of pitchers. The new guy – you've ever heard of him – serves up a home run on his first pitch that hasn't landed yet. Another earned run. Tie game, no W.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have really been impressed with Houston's Jake Odorizzi since he returned from the injured list. He made an extended relief appearance in his first outing, then moved into the rotation earlier this week. He looked great, and threw 86 pitches (he struck out nine in five innings) so he is close to full strength.
• M notes on Cardinals right-hander Johan Oviedo suggested he had okay stuff, but lacked command and didn't miss enough bats. After a solid start last week, I decided to have another look. Following his last outing against Detroit, my new notes say, okay stuff, lacks command, doesn't miss enough bats. Monitor.
• Toronto's Alek Manoah was handed a five-game suspension after hitting a batter in his last start. He had just served up back-to-back home runs, which has been a bit of a problem for him. He's a feisty one and may have lost his cool, but I have liked much of what I've seen, and think he can be an asset this year.
• We have already experienced our first "sticky" incident. Phillies manager Joe Girardi asked the umpires to check Nats ace Max Scherzer in the middle of an inning (he had already been checked). He was clean. There was a stare down, a few taunts and all the trappings of a circus sideshow. It was inevitable.

Endgame Odyssey:

Arizona finally snapped their 17-game losing streak earlier this week. Joakim Soria finished the 5-1 win, but it wasn't a save opportunity, so it's hard to say if he is the current closer. The Diamondbacks haven't had a save chance in 42 days. The Braves have struggled in the bullpen this year. Last year, they were 35-0 in games where they had a lead in the seventh inning. This season, despite a relatively competent performance from closer Will Smith, they have lost nine such games. I have a difficult time getting excited about the Reds bullpen. Lucas Sims is the closer of the week, but he often overthrows, while Amir Garrett (I still love his stuff) sometimes under-focuses. Their most reliable reliever this year, Tejay Antone, is back from the injured list, but he can't cover all the innings. Philadelphia's Hector Neris has blown three of his last four save chances. We've been here before. Jose Alvarado might be a prudent handcuff. In many cities the closer's gig seems to swing like a pendulum, so I'm always trying to identify the best options. In Cleveland, I still prefer Emmanuel Clase over James Karinchak, while in San Francisco, Jake McGee trumps Tyler Rogers.