Mound Musings: Revisiting Recommended Targets

Every spring, I provide readers with a list of pitchers I expect to provide value throughout the upcoming season. There's a brief recap of each team's potential rotation, followed by a "The Guy to Own" recommendation. In most cases, this won't be the recognized ace of the staff, as he usually will be full price when his name comes up – rather this suggestion is all about value. We're looking for that guy who will be underrated by many fantasy team owners; buyable or available at a discount. That's the overriding theme of this column. And, we'll continue to look for arms that can help you win!

That said, let's revisit, by team, my list of recommended 2018 draft day targets:

American League

Kevin Gausman – Orioles (1-1, 1.31 WHIP, 4.66 ERA): Regular readers know the words to this song. Gausman began the year out of sync, but he's trending in the right direction. It's frustrating that he makes mistakes at inopportune times. Interestingly, he tinkered with a new windup in his last start. Unusual yes, but effective? Stay tuned.

Chris Sale – Red Sox (1-1, 0.97 WHIP, 1.86 ERA): Boston pitchers are frequently pricey on draft day, and I needed one from their rotation, so Sale got the nod. I have always felt he was "money in the bank" (despite the ongoing injury fears) and generally at least matches the investment required to own him. He's an exceptional anchor.

Masahiro Tanaka – Yankees (3-2, 1.14 WHIP, 5.28 ERA): The one thing that really hurt Tanaka in 2017 was the long ball – 35 bombs in 178 innings. He throws strikes, and he usually locates them well, so I hoped for numbers more in line with 2016 (1.08 WHIP, 3.07 ERA). Unfortunately the home runs continue to haunt him, so far.

Blake Snell – Rays (3-1, 0.99 WHIP, 2.54 ERA): The best raw skills on a team that always seems to develop young starting pitchers, it was only a matter of time with Snell. He will probably still go through bumps in the road as he matures, but if he can keep throwing strikes like he has so far this year, the sky's the limit for him.

J.A. Happ – Blue Jays (3-1, 1.10 WHIP, 3.72 ERA): I've always liked Happ. I like pitchers who work up and down (as compared to in and out) in the zone. He's not overpowering, and I don't think he can maintain his early season strikeout rate, but he keeps his team in games while somewhat surprisingly is undervalued on draft day.

Lucas Giolito – White Sox (0-3, 1.89 WHIP, 9.00 ERA): I really thought Giolito was ready to take the next step. He took it alright; a giant step backward. I've only seen a handful of innings this year (and those were painful). I still think the blue-chipper is in there somewhere, but it's very well hidden right now. Recommendation revoked.

Mike Clevinger – Indians (2-0, 1.05 WHIP, 1.75 ERA): When I recommended him, he wasn't even guaranteed a rotation spot, but with Danny Salazar hurt, and Josh Tomlin being Josh Tomlin, I felt there was reason to believe he would get his chance. His low strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but his improved command is very encouraging.

Franklin Perez – Tigers (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): Sometimes it can be difficult to find a pitcher who can wear the "guy to own" tag. That was the case with the Tigers. Perez has a load of talent, and the Tigers like to bring them up early. We'll see.

Ian Kennedy – Royals (1-3, 1.42 WHIP, 3.46 ERA): After his first three starts of 2018, Kennedy looked like a great buy, but in reality, he's pretty erratic at this stage of his career. He gives up too much hard contact, so he has to hope those balls are hit at one of his fielders. The Royals don't offer many solid arms, and he's really a matchup guy.

Jose Berrios – Twins (2-2, 0.76 WHIP, 2.56 ERA): He looked awful in 2016 coming off considerable hype, but posted respectable numbers last year. Many were hesitant to jump on board this year, but he has shown his true ability early on – which was even more evident before the Yankees roughed him up a bit last time out.

Justin Verlander – Astros (4-0, 0.73 WHIP, 1.36 ERA): A favorite angle came to pass as Verlander made "changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes" a serious reality. He's back at the top of his game since moving from Detroit to Houston, and I see nothing to suggest that will change any time soon. Great pitcher + great team = ace.

Shohei Ohtani – Angels (2-1, 1.13 WHIP, 4.43 ERA): After a rough spring (he's still transitioning to baseball in North America), and amid rumors he could even begin the year in the minors, his price on draft day slumped. That just increased the true value equation. Trust me, the numbers aside, this guy is the real deal.

Sean Manaea – A's (3-2, 0.60 WHIP, 1.23 ERA): Manaea was a prime target after struggling with a medical condition that caused significant weight loss and sapped his strength last season. With that condition behind him, he has returned to anticipated form, including an early season no-hitter against the powerful Red Sox. Wow!

James Paxton – Mariners (1-1, 1.44 WHIP, 5.61 ERA): I'm not quite ready to take a loss on this recommendation. Paxton has had three good starts sandwiched between two clinkers. His FIP (4.10) is telling, and reflects his .high 354 BABIP. As usual, his command could be better, but his stuff suggests better days ahead. I'd try to buy low.

Matt Moore – Rangers (1-3, 1.73 WHIP, 5.55 ERA): I'll admit, picking him here was a stretch. There was no one on this staff who excited me, and once upon a time Moore was at the top of my kid watch list. I just keep thinking someday, somebody will flip his switch. He flashes a bit occasionally, but consistency remains a chronic problem.

National League

Mike Soroka – Braves (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): He is at Triple-A Gwinnett, the youngest pitcher at that level, and he seems quite comfortable, thank you. I expect to see him in Atlanta later this season, maybe July, and he has the repertoire and mound presence to make a positive impact from day one. He's worth waiting for.

Jose Urena – Marlins (0-3, 1.38 WHIP, 5.88 ERA): He plays for a really poor team, so the record can be excused, but what about his peripherals? His walk rate has improved, his strikeout rate is higher, and he's allowing fewer homeruns. The Marlins bullpen has often hurt him, but the signs point to at least modest improvement going forward.

Noah Syndergaard – Mets (2-0, 1.06 WHIP, 3.29 ERA): Thor is another true ace I still recommended as a value target. In some circles, his price was depressed by health risk, and a possible innings limit. I do think the Mets will try to manage his workload, but buying a pitcher with his ceiling at even a small discount is often a bargain.

Aaron Nola – Phillies (2-1, 0.93 WHIP, 2.30 ERA): Nagging injuries (and a trip to the disabled list) tarnished his first half in 2017, but he came back at full speed and he hasn't slowed down. Nola is an old-school workhorse type who can pile up a lot of quality innings. He'll be on the roster of a lot of league champions.

Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (2-2, 0.99 WHIP, 2.97 ERA): Strasburg is often slightly undervalued in many leagues, primarily because he has a somewhat disturbing injury history, and perhaps just a little because he's on the same staff with Max Scherzer. That said, when he's healthy and gets in a groove, he can be as dominant as they come.

Yu Darvish – Cubs (0-2, 1.63 WHIP, 6.86 ERA): Darvish is perhaps the biggest disappointment on this list. He doesn't appear to have any consistent feel for his secondary pitches right now, and that's allowing hitters to sit on his fastball and slider. The struggles appear mechanical, so hopefully he'll be back in form before long.

Brandon Finnegan – Reds (0-2, 2.19 WHIP, 8.03 ERA): When nobody jumps out at me on a team, I generally default to upside even if that means stashing the target arm and patiently waiting for him to come around. In 2017, he went from good, to very bad, to ugly (most of the season on the disabled list), so there's a lot of rust to shake off.

Brandon Woodruff – Brewers (0-0, 1.71 WHIP, 5.14 ERA): I struggled to find a pitcher on their staff that I felt could fetch a profit. He struggled early on in the bullpen, before being sent down. He may be getting it together, so perhaps we'll see him again soon. He's a one-dollar flyer, but he may be capable of posting respectable numbers.

Jameson Taillon – Pirates (2-2, 1.17 WHIP, 4.91 ERA): A favorite who spent time at the top of my kids to watch list before arriving in Pittsburgh. Injuries and illness have been frustrating, but they seem to have strengthened his resolve. Love the curve, but his command is still on its way back. He could get better as the season progresses.

Miles Mikolas – Cardinals (3-0. 1.00 WHIP, 3.46 ERA): I liked a lot of what I saw in spring training, and that earned him inclusion on this list. His command of his quality arsenal has been impressive, and I think that could be enough to justify your investment. I'm cautiously optimistic, but so far, so good.

Patrick Corbin – Diamondbacks (4-0, 0.66 WHIP, 1.89 ERA): What else can I say that hasn't already been said recently? I was all in on Corbin heading into this season (I own him in every league), and while I wasn't nearly as surprised as most with his start, his strikeout rate is even better than I anticipated. I hope readers are reaping rewards!

Jon Gray – Rockies (2-4, 1.47 WHIP, 5.79 ERA):I don't recall ever owning a Rockies' starting pitcher, because even a really good arm can get torched on any given day in that park. I really like Gray's stuff, and I'd pursue him if he didn't pitch half his games in Coors Field, but I'm just too skittish to consider him a plug and play starter.

Kenta Maeda – Dodgers (2-1, 1.48 WHIP, 3.10 ERA): This recommendation was made based on a suppressed price tag since he had a potentially undefined role heading into the season. I just couldn't see him being in the bullpen. He's in the rotation and pitching well. No worries, the inflated WHIP is a product of a ridiculously high BABIP (.400).

Dinelson Lamet – Padres (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): I was really looking forward to watching him progress in 2018, but Tommy John surgery has put that on hold for this season. Hopefully we can revisit him next year, although it might be 2020 before we really see him back in stride.

Jeff Samardzija – Giants (1-1, 1.96 WHIP, 6.23 ERA): The Giants presented more of a challenge because there were a few pitchers I wanted to include here. Shark got the nod because I felt he might offer the best discount. He spent the first couple of weeks on the disabled list, so it's probably too early to say whether he was a good investment.

Endgame Odyssey:

I'm just a little concerned with the Giants' Hunter Strickland. His peripherals look fine, but he has blown a couple of saves. I don't think his job is in jeopardy right now, but Mark Melancon still is out indefinitely, so a handcuff of Tony Watson might be prudent. Similarly, Keone Kela has had some shaky moments in Texas, but the Rangers don't have many good alternatives. He too is probably safe for now, but keep an eye on things. Not surprisingly, Josh Hader has surfaced as the best closing option while the Brewers wait for Corey Knebel to return. However, he still pitches multiple innings whenever the opportunity fits, meaning he won't pitch many days in a row. In Oakland, Blake Treinen took a comebacker off his shin resulting in a bruise. Santiago Casilla filled in for him, but expect Treinen back soon.