Mound Musings: Ramblin' Man

As we progress through the season, most editions of the Musings focus on a fairly specific topic – it might be prospects, trade fallout, scouting reports, or any of a number of things readers have asked me to discuss. Given that format, there are almost always things I would like to include, but they don't quite fit that week's topic, or they are just brief snippets that don't require a full article. Therefore, I am going to take this opportunity to throw out a few rambling observations – food for thought if you will. Always remember, this is intended to be an interactive forum, I encourage comments and discussion, and I'll pretty much always offer an opinion! Let's get to it:

Injuries, injuries, injuries – I haven't compiled any statistics, but I feel like this year has already been the worst I can remember with regard to injuries. And, hey, you have to remember, my memory goes back to before Tommy John had Tommy John surgery. I could list them all here, but it would just be frustrating, and/or depressing. Those who say you shouldn't draft pitchers early in drafts will say, "I told you so" but I really think landing a couple of frontline guys is more important than ever. Yes, if you lose one, it hurts, but if you don't have someone to offset the lousy peripherals posted by the fill-ins, your stats could crash and burn almost overnight. Personally, I am looking just a little more closely at pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery in the fairly recent past. In most, not all, cases it's like the clock on their elbows have been reset, and they might be somewhat more resilient, at least for awhile. Interestingly, major league braintrusts seem to be taking the same approach. Several pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery and are expected to go fairly high in next week's amateur draft fit that bill.

Speaking of the draft – Draft day is always a highlight for me. Next week's edition of Mound Musings will highlight some of the arms I have been tracking – where did they go in the draft, what organization will they join, and what should fantasy owners expect, including how soon they might appear on a major league mound. I don't see this as a pitching rich draft, but there are several arms I am anxious to see more of. As previously mentioned, some of these guys have already experienced elbow problems, including surgery in some cases. Further, there are some pitchers listed among the possible top choices who may have questionable credentials to start. That's always a bit surprising. I'll tease you with a couple of names I am sure will be prominent in next week's column. I'm intrigued by Tyler Jay, I've followed Jon Harris for awhile, and a couple of high school kids – Mike Nikorak and Ashe Russell – are also on the watch list. There are others but I'll be anxious to see where these arms go.

Fielder's glove work makes your pitcher better – I have mentioned this before, but I am going to say it again just to underscore what an exceptional fielder can mean to a pitching staff. They are calling this year's draft the year of the shortstop and there are a bunch of them that can hit and really pick it. Shortstop is the most influential position with regard to the pitcher's potential – especially a groundball pitcher obviously – but a ball hawk centerfielder is also a big plus. For example, the Braves' Andrelton Simmons and San Francisco's Brandon Crawford make the pitchers they play behind better so give them a bump up in value. A guy who has really caught my eye with his range and glove work is Kevin Pillar in Toronto. Make sure you also keep in mind, errors are not always an indicator of poor fielding, the best get to balls lesser gloves just wave at.

Patient hitters make me cry – I always try to decide what frustrates me most when one of my pitchers is on the mound. There are a lot of things, but facing an overly patient lineup has to be close to the top of the list. There are a few teams that qualify, but one stands out – the Kansas City Royals. While a team with some booming bats can hurt you too, a string of 10-pitch at bats can ruin a very good outing. With the abundance of shaky bullpens, especially middle relievers, I want my starters to get seven innings. Even those with good command can run into trouble with high pitch counts against teams that wait, and then shorten up when they do get two strikes, fouling off pitch after pitch, while my guy gets closer and closer to an early shower. I mention this as much as anything to highlight a sometimes overlooked factor when you evaluate a young pitcher just arriving in the show. It is not unusual for the young pitcher to experience some jitters, and that overly patient line-up magnifies things. If he runs into a higher pitch count or more walks than you might expect, consider the batting order he faced. I'll often give a kid pitcher who normally displays excellent command a mulligan when this occurs.

However, for fantasy owners, patience can be a virtue – A batting order loaded with pesky, patient hitters can make you crazy, but when it comes to a season full of pitching numbers, patience can be rewarding. I have always been a believer in pitching stats, like water, seeking their own level. If you have watched a pitcher over time, and there are no underlying injuries involved, most pitchers who would normally have an ERA of about 3.25 and a WHIP of around 1.20 will reach those numbers over the course of a season. If at the beginning of June that pitcher has a 5.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, there will often be a string of excellent innings coming. Being human, stats are cumulative and don't usually result from start after start of six innings, six hits, two walks, and two runs over and over again. The other night Felix Hernandez got scorched for seven runs while recording just 14 outs (and amazingly, he walked five batters). That just means about 20 shutout innings are waiting on his dance card sometime in the near future. Of course the opposite is also true. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Bartolo Colon (8-2) won't win 30 games this season.  It doesn't always work, especially with younger pitchers who are still developing (or being figured out by opposing hitters), but you have to trust your instincts on the future.

There you have it – a few rambling thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch, and often overlooked factors when evaluating pitching for fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Masahiro Tanaka returned as he continues his quest to pitch through elbow issues. Tanaka has been pitching with damage that could require Tommy John surgery, but he has managed to avoid that so far. His start Wednesday was exceptional, and he continues to pitch very well when he can take the mound.
• Don't look now, but Jose Fernandez is facing live hitters now. In his first outing in extended spring training, he tossed three hitless innings, struck out seven, and was hitting 97 mph on the gun. He's probably at least a month from returning, but everything has been very encouraging so far. I've missed watching him.
• I wanted to have a look at Jeff Samardzija so I tuned into his start against Texas on Tuesday night. His stuff is still crisp but he isn't locating it consistently at all. Shifting gears a bit, he failed to locate a pitch to Joey Gallo and that pitch might land sometime in the next day or two. He hits the ball real hard.
• It looks like the Reds may have dodged a bullet on Johnny Cueto who had a start skipped with elbow soreness. He came back earlier this week with six strong innings (they held his pitch count to 93), so he should be fine going forward. He's a guy I really like a lot, and he is poised to take another step.
• Chris Archer is making quite a statement in Tampa Bay. He struck out 15 Angels over eight innings in his last start, and he didn't walk a batter. He's always had the stuff, including one of the nastiest sliders around, and it looks like he is figuring out that hitters aren't going to beat him if he throws his game.
• Stephen Strasburg is on the disabled list with a stiff neck, back woes, a 1.72 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA over 10 starts – not exactly a top five pitcher, yet I am not ready to write him off. They are reinventing Strasburg to try and reduce the stress on his body, and he's just too talented to not have it happen.

He only lasted one outing and Sean Doolittle headed back to the disabled list. Shoulder woes are always iffy to predict, and even though follow-up MRIs have found no structural damage, Doolittle is on the shelf and Tyler Clippard is the closer for now. Brad Ziegler hasn't been all that reliable since stepping in with Arizona, and Addison Reedhas stepped up his game. I expect to see Reed back in the closer's role soon. The Marlins not only pulled Steve Cishek out of the closer's role, things got so bad they sent him to Double-A Jacksonville to hopefully work things out. A.J. Ramos has done reasonably well and should be their end gamer for the foreseeable future. I was a bit skeptical regarding the likelihood of Brett Cecil holding onto the closer's job in Toronto, and I remain so, but since the Jays haven't provided him with even one save chance in the past month, the jury is still out. Fernando Rodney has now blown three saves, with most of those just recently. The Mariners probably didn't care all that much as his ERA ballooned to 6.85 as long as he was finishing games, but blown chances are another story. If he doesn't get it together soon, Tom Wilhelmsen or Carson Smith could get the call, but they want Rodney to keep the job so don't expect any changes right away. In San Francisco, Santiago Casilla is really struggling to keep runners off the bases and Sergio Romo has had his share of forgettable moments too. With limited options, Casilla is probably safe for now, but this could perhaps eventually be an interesting landing spot for Jonathan Papelbon – just sayin'.