Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Over the past few years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we all try to answer the ultimate question, I occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from readers as well as use the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. If you have a pitching question, fire away, that's what we're here for.

Who is Roki Sasaki? Last week I threw a little teaser out here about Sasaki. I thought I might elaborate on that here, in the off chance he does make it to North America this winter. The next section below – looking for reliable pitching – will underscore the importance of being very familiar with any pitcher who might be a positive factor.

Sasaki is arguably the best pitcher in Japan, or at least the best pitcher not pitching in MLB. He was the first overall pick (by his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines) in 2019. He arrived at the highest level of Japanese baseball two years later in 2021, already having compiled some eye-popping accomplishments. For example, his fastball was clocked at 101 mph in high school where he also threw a 194 pitch, 12-inning complete game. He is also noted to have one of the, if not the best, splitters on the planet, and a plus-plus slider.

In 2022 he recorded 17 consecutive perfect innings, retiring 52 hitters in a row. By then his fastball was averaging 99 mph and touching 103. He was looking even better early in 2023, but then the injury bug bit him. He was shut down in July with an oblique tear that cost him most of the rest of the season. He returned at the beginning of this year but then missed two months with an unspecified right arm injury. He came off the IL in early August, but he hasn't been as sharp. Probably shouldn't be too surprising. One noted scout stated, "If and when he comes to MLB, he'll be in the Paul Skenes category, with a bit better stuff but with slightly less overall command." In comparison, he won't turn 23 until November – that's about six months older than Skenes. The big thing now is proving he can handle a normal MLB workload.

Looking for reliable pitching: Not too surprisingly, as we approach the end of the regular season, the "good" pitchers tend to gain focus. The problem is, pitchers simply are not showing consistent performance. Did you know that there are just eight – that's right, eight – pitchers who have pitched 100-plus innings and have an ERA under 3.00? And, believe me, there are plenty of "aces" not among those elite eight.

The problem here is twofold. I have promoted the importance of matchups all season. Obviously, it's always been a key factor, but with the rampant pitching inconsistency, matchups are now very near the top of the list when deciding who pitches and who doesn't. In the past, I typically had what I referred to as "plug and play" starting pitchers – top-of-the-rotation types who were in the weekly lineup regardless of the opponent. There are still a few of those, but even the best pitchers are not necessarily going to provide good peripherals, and they aren't pitching as deep into games. Notably, as we head into September, only about 11 or 12 pitchers are on pace to eclipse 200 innings, and, coincidentally, only three of the sub 3.00 ERAs, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal, also have a reasonable shot at tossing more than 200 innings.

The White Sox have been embarrassing: I remember the Mets team that lost 120 games in 1962. Okay, barely, I was only eight years old, but I was already an avid baseball fan. What I remember most was the awful pitching. But, hey, this was a true expansion team; a collection of castoffs from all the established MLB teams. That made a difference. They were doing their best, but they were just overmatched. And, their front office worked with what they had. In some ways you felt a little sorry for them.

Today, we have a team challenging that record of futility. The Chicago White Sox are currently 31-107. That puts them on pace to lose 126 games. That's sad. The worst of it is, unlike the forlorn Mets, this team (front office, not players) are doing it on purpose. They have dealt away, or at least have tried to trade, almost every player in the organization with a legitimate claim to being in the major leagues. Look, I understand rebuilding, teams do it all the time. This is different. Don't teams owe at least a little bit to their fans? Shouldn't they make at least an effort to avoid embarrassment? You know, I do have some allegiance to the Sox. The first MLB game I saw in person was the White Sox and Joel Horlen facing Cleveland and Sam McDowell at old Comiskey Park in 1961, I think. It was awesome. McDowell was on his game. Wow.

I mentioned earlier the Mets awful pitching. The White Sox know the words to that song with a 4.88 team ERA (only the Rockies playing half their games in Coors Field are worse) while their 1.44 WHIP sets the bar for futility in baseball. To be fair, most of these guys should be in the minor leagues. Will it work out? Remember the Mets were world champions just seven years later in 1969. We'll see.

Fielding (and base-running) follies: I have mentioned this several times over the season, but it seems to be just getting worse. Errors and even base-running blunders are part of the game, but does anyone else see them happening far more often this year? Back in the day, we called it fundamentals, and it was drilled into you over and over and over again until you literally never thought about it. "Get in front of the ball!" "Keep your eye on the ball – follow it into your glove." "Set your feet and follow through with your throw." "Pick up your coach." "Don't run into outs, especially at third base." Do any of those sound familiar?

I was actually watching a Mariners-Angels game while writing this. They went out of their way to help make my point. Now I don't mean to single anyone out, but it's coincidental, so the names have not been changed to protect then innocent. Angels SS Zach Neto airmailed a throw into the dugout. Later he booted a routine groundball when he took his eye off the ball. Then, the Mariners attempted a stolen base. The runner was picked off. Unfortunately, neither Neto or 2B Brandon Drury made any move to cover second base. The throw bounced off the umpire into the outfield. Don't fielders communicate with each other to decide who will cover on a steal attempt anymore? That all happened over the course of about three innings. It's getting ridiculous. I saw better in Little League games.

Ability vs. Opportunity: I talk about it all the time, and quite frankly, it is involved in the vast majority of answers to questions. Readers frequently ask, "please rank these pitchers for the rest of this season in a redraft league." I'm glad to answer such questions (but understand the answers aren't guaranteed, they are my opinions based on careful consideration of both ability and opportunity). Both are critical, and overlooking one or the other can lead you down a dead-end road.

In most cases, the list includes pitchers who have posted eye-opening peripherals which might lead to more fantasy relevant innings. That's the ability side of the equation even though it might be a bit misleading. It seems easy enough, the better the numbers, the higher the chance he can help my team. Right? Ummm, yes and no. MLB rosters are loaded with flash-in-the-pan arms – especially young arms new to the MLB roster. Hitters being unfamiliar with a pitcher can lead to unrealistic – and unsustainable – results. I'll be honest, assessing true ability is hard to teach, and really only comes with experience. I'll say this, be objective and avoid giving too much credit to guys on your favorite team.

So, let's look at the flip side of the coin – opportunity. Think about it. Mariano Rivera would have been fantasy irrelevant if he hadn't been granted (well deserved) the opportunity to pitch the ninth inning so often. Most importantly, what other options are available to the pitcher's team. If your guy is unlikely to provide solid innings long term, that is likely to be recognized, and he probably won't see meaningful innings. However, if he has genuine ability, there is a decent chance he will eventually become at least somewhat useful to a fantasy team. Here you need to honestly assess who is in his way, and how likely they are to stay there. This is often when bias steps in, so be honest! If the bullpen is a shambles, the pitcher could work his way into critical innings, but if it's loaded (and they are all healthy), it could be a long time coming – if ever. And, be sure to take into consideration the historical tendencies of the manager.

If you are going to replace a pitcher, you must be confident the replacement will be better long term.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• While outlining this edition of the Musings, I was watching Samuel Aldegheri's outing against Seattle. I had not had a chance to see him. It was a pretty ugly line, but not as bad as it looked. Today's delightful defense reared its hideous head, and the M's put five unearned runs on the board in the first inning.
• I also watched some of Miami's Adam Oller in his outing against the Giants. That one surprised me. He hasn't shown me a whole lot before. In this one he was spinning breaking pitches with a ton of snap, and he was both throwing strikes, and getting hitters to chase. I might need to watch him again soon.
• I have been talking all season about unexplained anomalies on the mound, and we had another one earlier this week. Justin Verlander has not pitched to his normal abilities his last few starts, but in his last outing he walked the first three batters he faced, something he hasn't done in 522 previous MLB starts.
• After a long rehab process, the Padres Yu Darvish made his return to the San Diego mound, that resulted in mixed results. He had been out since May 29 and, interestingly, did not actually go out on a rehab assignment, instead opting to just pitch side sessions and batting practice. Can he really be in game shape?
• I'm going to make a rash prediction – something I do frequently and with ease. I really haven't talked about him too much, but Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan will win the AL Cy young award in 2026. He'll be back from Tommy John surgery next spring, he'll get back to form and he'll set the world ablaze in 2026.

Endgame Odyssey:

Interestingly, this has been one of the quieter weeks in the bullpens. Most saves have gone to pitchers you might expect. Of note, Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase established a new franchise record for career saves. The record is going to steadily grow. You can never be sure with the Pirates, but it's possible they have finally figured out their best closer has more than 325 saves. Congratulations, Aroldis Chapman (I hope). The Reds may be shopping around for a caddy for closer Alexis Diaz. Diaz had pitched four of the previous five days, so they gave the ball to veteran southpaw Justin Wilson, and he looked pretty good logging his second save. Kansas City's Lucas Erceg has been very productive for the majority of the season, but a hand injury has been problematic. I don't think he's in trouble yet, but he needs a few clean innings soon. With 11 blown saves, Clay Holmes has not been "removed" as the Yankees closer yet, but don't be surprised if Luke Weaver sees some save chances.