Mound Musings: I Was Born a Ramblin’ Man

The season is winding down – or heating up from a playoff perspective. This week I get to ramble, discussing a little of this and a little of that, and as always, I certainly encourage readers to chime in as well. With just a couple more weeks of the Musings coming up, next week I'll hand out my awards for 2016, including biggest surprise, biggest disappointment, starter of the year and reliever of the year. The following week we'll close things out with my annual Kids on Parade column highlighting the best young arms on their way to the bigs. That said, let's get to it:

The "Do No Harm" principle – I have actually covered this topic in a previous edition of Musings, but I think it's worth talking about again (and again). The basis of the "Do No Harm" principle is understanding that bad pitching can create havoc for the rest of your starting rotation. In the example I used, I looked at the numbers of a "rotation" with just two pitchers – Clayton Kershaw and Alfredo Simon. At the time, the combined WHIP and ERA for that pair was 1.42 and 5.02 respectively. In essence, Simon had erased all the good things Kershaw had contributed. You can't afford a Simon, or someone like that, on your staff. It's unlikely you will be able to stack a rotation with nothing but top of the rotation talent, but be judicious when filling those bottom slots and always be looking to upgrade. Remember, an upgrade helps in two ways: You get the benefit of the numbers posted by the better pitcher, and you get the benefit of not having to absorb the ugly numbers provided by the lesser guy. I can't say this often enough.

Everybody loves this guy … well, everybody but you – Sometimes I will play down a pitcher's ability, even though many analysts are crowing about his future. When that happens, I often get asked why I can't see it. In fact, fans of the pitcher's organization can frequently be downright vindictive when I diss their up-and-coming ace. That's okay; that is a big reason for this column – open and unfettered discussion!

First, I would like to say that I'm not a pure fan of any MLB team. There are teams that I follow more closely, primarily because I like the type of pitchers they bring into the organization, and/or because I think pitchers in an organization are more likely to enjoy success at some point in their careers. It could be (and often is) a coaching staff with a program that consistently churns out top quality pitchers. Always remember this – this column seeks to uncover "value" in major league pitching. If a coaching staff can turn a fourth-round draft choice into a staff ace, I'll be monitoring his progress because that's the kind of pitcher who is considerably underpriced on draft day (until he becomes well known). Filling your rotation with players like that wins fantasy championships.

So what does all of that mean to Musings readers? It means I won't prop up a pitcher just because he pitches for my favorite team. It means I might disagree with the majority – in both good and bad, albeit probably more often when the majority are singing a pitcher's praises. I'm pretty picky, so my list of "must have" pitchers is generally pretty short, and I have a different set of qualifying criteria (many are the same, but all analysts weight criteria a bit differently) so I might like or dislike a guy's chances of success for slightly varying reasons. Do I make mistakes? Absolutely! Every day! However, long time readers (I hope) will say they picked up some useful information here.

Avoiding the Flavor of the Week – Perhaps the most difficult thing to recognize is what I will call "false success" from a new starting pitcher. Years ago, I struggled with it all the time. A pitcher, often just a marginal prospect, gets called up to make a couple of starts while a regular rotation pitcher spends a couple of weeks on the disabled list. His numbers at Triple-A were surprisingly good since being promoted a couple of months ago, and now there's an increasing amount of "flavor of the week" buzz making the rounds. In his first start, he tosses six shutout innings with six strikeouts, and, in watching the game, you noticed that hitters seemed to have a hard time squaring him up. You pounce on the waiver wire after another solid start five days later. Sound familiar?

He makes a couple more decent starts, then matches up with a free-swinging team and totally undresses them. It's time to get this guy in your lineup! You know, he could be just the guy to bolster your erratic staff. A two-start week sees a mediocre outing of just five innings with a high pitch count, but thankfully only three earned runs. However, the lug nuts are loose and the wheels are about to come off. In his next start, hitters are no longer taking weak swings at balls out of the zone, anything in the zone is getting hit – hard – and he doesn't make it out of the third inning, giving up eight runs. You leave him in the lineup the next week for what appears to be a favorable matchup, but those early results were "false success" and he gets hammered again before being sent back down.

What happened? In hindsight, you note that his Triple-A success shared some things in common with his initial major league trials. He made only 10 starts there with so-so results early on, then strong performances once he settled in, and then eroding success as his pitch counts and baserunners increased and his outings got shorter. Remember, he was never a blue-chip prospect, and his funky, deceptive delivery served him well for a while. Unfortunately, major hitters achieved that level by feeding on mediocre pitchers. It took a little while, but they learned to pick up the ball out of his hand, maybe the release point told them the pitch would be out of the strike zone equating to spotty command, and they noted clear tendencies like throwing get-me-over meatballs when behind in the count (which happened more and more often).

You have to avoid that danger zone – or know when the wheels start wobbling and sell high. Great stuff and/or exceptional command – preferably both – pave the real path to success at the highest level of the game. There you have one of my "secrets" so you'll know the story when someone asks, "How did you know he would fall apart?"

That closer's gig may be his – You all have heard me say the next in line to close isn't necessarily the eighth inning set-up guy. And, predictably, many times someone else steps up. Here's something to watch for. On Tuesday, the Giants' Hunter Strickland posted an ugly ninth inning while trying to close out a game. But, the line wasn't the real story. There were a couple of soft bloop hits (note that sometimes there are also questionable umpiring calls or fielding blunders involved in that kind of inning), and the big blow came after he left the game. You want to watch his next outing! How a late innings relief pitcher bounces back from that kind of adversity speaks volumes. A true closer requires, maybe above all else, a very short memory.

There you have it – a few rambling thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch, and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching for fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Blue Jays appear to be close to shutting down Aaron Sanchez. They have tried to be conservative with his workload as they fight for a playoff spot, but they are skipping his start this week, and if the playoff hopes dim, they will probably pull the chute on the season. He opened a lot of eyes this year.

• Another pitcher facing an early end to his season would be Jameson Taillon of the Pirates. Pittsburgh is out of the playoff hunt, but with Garrett Cole struggling for much of the season, and Tyler Glasnow having a more difficult transition, Taillon has moved to the top of their rotation food chain. All bright futures!

• He may not surface this year but the Astros just signed a Cuban lefty with a lot of potential. Cionel Perez is only 20 years old, but he has already shown some mound presence and ability. Perez posted a 2.06 ERA a couple of years ago as a teenager and could make a spot for himself in the Astros' 2017 rotation.

• Even if he comes back for the playoffs this year, Stephen Strasburg's future will be cloudy with a chance of injury heading into next season. When he's 100% there aren't many arms with his ability to dominate, however he hasn't enjoyed an injury-free season in a very long time. It certainly tarnishes his luster.

• The Indians' Carlos Carrasco had another short outing earlier this week, failing to make it out of the fourth inning. His overall stat line for the season is more than respectable (3.32 ERA with just over a strikeout per inning), but he's not going to take the next step until he can be more consistent. It's frustrating in my book.

• Kyle Hendricks is a huge part of the Cubs' amazing season. He's 15-7 with a microscopic 0.96 WHIP and an equally impressive, albeit probably unsustainable in 2017, 2.03 ERA. An extreme groundball pitcher, he lacks the big strikeout pitch, and like all finesse pitchers, his command has to be right on target.
  

The Giants finally pulled the plug on Santiago Casilla, who is suffering through a stretch of ineffectiveness. They are grumbling about a committee, but with the playoffs looming that is unlikely their first choice. Their best option is Hunter Strickland (the flukey four-run disaster earlier this week excused), and if he handles the added responsibility early, he should end up being the guy, but a real sleeper might be Derek Law. After waiting a long time for the chance, Daniel Hudson is working to solidify his claim on the closer's gig in Arizona for next year. The Rangers continue to rely on Sam Dyson as their first choice for saves, but they have a lot of viable options in an incredibly deep bullpen. I continue to favor Raisel Iglesias as the Reds' closer, but their shaky bullpen makes it difficult for the team to resist using him for multiple innings. He should be their guy in 2017. It took most of the season, but Philadelphia's Jeanmar Gomez is stumbling. He may last the season, but Hector Neris is the arm to own. It's not every day that a young and relatively inexperienced pitcher steps into the closer's role, but that is exactly what happened with Roberto Osuna in Toronto. And, he has thrived in the gig!