Mound Musings: First Year Player Draft Edition

It's always a highlight of my baseball season. Draft day brings an infusion of new, and hopefully, exciting arms into professional baseball and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. I settled in Monday night with iced tea and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers I wanted to check in on. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night! Obviously, this is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you might think.

Some general observations from Draft Day

Every draft seems to have a life of its own. In some ways, it's like a fantasy draft: A few picks will be predictable, some will totally surprise and others will be included in runs on pitchers, hitters, college players and high school kids.

My opinion is that there are two distinct trends developing specific to pitching, and the two directions seem to be polarizing the draft strategies. Pitching – at least good pitching – is an increasing premium, and with hesitation to plunge into the free agent market, the draft is rapidly becoming even more critical. Pitching-starved organizations are desperately seeking arms that can not only help, but can hopefully help almost immediately. Lower budget teams may tend to be more patient and perhaps more likely to shop for younger kids, but there are contenders who will pay a premium price to land more developed pitchers. They might even consider an arm to help as early as this August or September. I don't think any starting pitchers will be considered in those terms, having already accrued a lot of innings this past spring, but we are seeing some hurlers being groomed exclusively as relievers, and they probably haven't reached a critical innings workload. I'm even including a reliever in my observations below who I think has a real chance to appear in the major leagues as early as this year.

So, recognizing that pitching is a dire need, what is the flipside of that coin? In a word, there is a focus on durability. The pitchers (and hitters) selected in the draft represent huge investments. You can be assured health history was considered. Team analysts will have balanced raw talent levels with mechanics that might promote long term health, or at least a perceived belief that the pitcher will be less likely to miss time. I'm not yet convinced the formula exists to accurately predict that, but they will try.

Overall, I felt this was a pitching-rich draft. I didn't have any of the draft arms listed as "generational" prospects. The most recent I listed so was Stephen Strasburg (2009), so no one wearing that badge isn't a major fault. Most importantly, there were a lot of pitchers I feel will eventually become assets in the major leagues, and perhaps more importantly for our purposes, contributors in the fantasy arena. Notably, I think this was especially true of the college pitchers, and that suggests they could arrive even more quickly. Okay, enough of the preliminaries, let's get to the good stuff and learn a little more about some arms you definitely want to watch! There were some surprises.

Here are a few high ceiling arms I think you should add to your watch list:

• Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers – 1st overall) – Mize being the consensus top arm (and overall pick) in this year's draft was pretty hard to argue with. He has a four pitch – five or six if you count variations of the basic pitches – repertoire, and he consistently throws them ALL for strikes. He walked just 12 this year (against 151 strikeouts) while pitching at Auburn in the SEC. That's significant because the SEC is a very advanced conference, so he was often facing hitters roughly equivalent to High-A minor leaguers. All four/five of his offerings have plus tendencies, but his splitter sets him apart. That's his primary off-speed weapon, sitting 86 to 89 mph, and he uses it at any time, in any count, generally spotting it very effectively. It's a nasty one and complements an explosive fastball that touches 97 mph. The only concern for the Tigers, and potential fantasy owners, is a spotty health history, but it's very hard to pass on his talent and development level. The Tigers move young arms quickly so we could see him fairly soon.

• Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals – 18th overall) – Here was the first surprise in the draft, at least for me. His projected draft slot varied somewhat, and he had been slipping a bit lower in the eyes of some analysts. He has a lower arm slot than many prefer, as it can negatively impact the sharpness of his pitches, but I wasn't quite so concerned. Conversely, while all analysts will look at mound demeanor, that is a very important facet of my projections. This guy has very good stuff, and he couples it with intense competitiveness. That's a winning formula, and he has done it in the SEC as Florida's Friday starter for three years, including leading them to a College World Series championship. He needs a better change-up, and there are other tweaks that will make him even more effective, but I saw him as the second pitcher and somewhere in the top 10. The Royals had multiple early picks, so some speculate they might have more money flexibility, making it easier to sign him. Think of him as a starting pitcher, with a closer personality – an interesting profile.

• Carter Stewart (Atlanta Braves – 8th overall) – He was the first high school pitcher off the board and he deserved to be. Regular readers know about my love of the curveball. Last year, I drooled over MacKenzie Gore (and I still do), but Stewart's yacker is potentially even better. He generates a spin rate in excess of 3,000 rpm. That's crazy. For a high school kid, that's unheard of. That curve spin rate comps to the Angels' Garrett Richards. Add in a mid-90s fastball that touches 97 mph. Wait, are we talking high school? He also already has a pitcher's body, but what he doesn't have is a change-up. He hasn't needed one to date, but I think it will come. You can also bump him up a couple of notches as he drops into a dream scenario with a Braves organization that grabs and then successfully fine tunes young pitchers. Yes, there is young arm risk, but looking at the talent on Atlanta's roster, he could be dynasty gold.

• Matthew Liberatore (Tampa Bay Rays – 16th overall) – Here is the fourth pitcher I list in the cream of this year's crop. Liberatore is a southpaw high school hurler who is 6'5" and 200 lbs. so he's already put together with the likelihood he will grow into it as he matures. That could mean an uptick in his low 90s fastball, and overall upturns across his already high quality repertoire. Like Singer, he fell further than I expected before being plucked by Tampa Bay, another team with multiple early picks, affording them more financial flexibility. Further, like Stewart going to Atlanta, Liberatore joins a Rays' organization with an exemplary record of developing high ceiling young arms. This guy is a "thinking man's pitcher" – already showing an advanced ability to stay ahead of hitters with a refined understanding of pitch sequencing. That is a huge plus in my book and pretty rare in a high school kid. He has very good stuff, and it will likely get even better, and he's a lefty. With his head, and this organization, I love his future.

• Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners – 14th overall) – I'll admit I wasn't as familiar with Gilbert as I was with some of the other draft prospects, but I had him on my list to look at more closely. When Seattle nabbed him a bit earlier than I had anticipated, that prompted me to do a little more research. I liked what I found. He pitched for Stetson, not exactly a citadel of collegiate athletics, but they do list Corey Kluber and Jacob deGrom as alumni, so maybe it's something in the water. He has a lively fastball and a promising change-up – always a useful weapon – plus a nice feel for a curveball. He'll need to continue refining his secondary stuff, but there is definitely promise there.

• Jackson Kowar (Kansas City Royals 33rd overall) – A teammate of fellow draftee Brady Singer at Florida (they were actually roommates), Kowar isn't quite as well known, but he is a very good prospect in his own right. I think these two have displayed a certain amount of synergy, and in an interesting twist, that may continue as both are now the property of the Royals. This guy throws darts, and as he fills out, it wouldn't be surprising to see his fastball slip into the triple digits, and maintain his impressive movement. The Royals minor league system is a wasteland when it comes to quality arms. They selected five college arms in the first couple of rounds of this draft, highlighted by Singer and Kowar. They certainly recognize an immediate need, so look for rapid advancement.

• Durbin Feltman (Boston Red Sox – 100th overall) – Here is the promised college reliever, one of two I had my eyes on (the other was J.T. Ginn who went to the Dodgers with the 30th pick). Feltman has been closing at TCU for three years, featuring an explosive high 90s fastball and a truly wipeout slider that generates a ton of swinging strikes. He doesn't really offer a third pitch, and being considered smallish (6'0" and 190 lbs.), he's unlikely to be seen as an option to start. That said, his stuff could play very well in Boston's bullpen, and it should accelerate his opportunity to pitch with the big club. It's probably unlikely, but he could get a look as early as later this season.

  There were a lot of other pitchers worth monitoring – guys like Ethan Hankins (35th overall to the Indians) who is described as having a "generational arm" and southpaw Shane McClanahan (31st overall to the Rays) another huge arm going to an excellent developmental organization. Cole Winn (15th overall to the Rangers) is also considered to be a high ceiling high school arm, and high school right-hander Mason Denaburg (27th overall to the Nationals) who has a plus curveball with a mid-upper 90s fastball. And, a favorite sleeper of mine, Jackson Goddard (99th overall to the Diamondbacks) who flashes some nasty stuff but will need mechanical refinement to harness some consistency. I'm always on the lookout for the raw tools that can sometimes be further developed when the pitcher turns pro.
  

• Speaking of Stetson's favorite son, Corey Kluber, did you know he has tossed six innings or more, allowing three runs or less in every start this season? If you play in a quality starts league, that's a perfect 13 for 13. They call him "Klubot," and he has earned it. I love consistency, and he defines that on the mound.

• I watched Madison Bumgarner in his first start of the season Tuesday night, and while there was perhaps a little rust – he missed his spots more often than he normally does – he actually looked pretty sharp. Most importantly, he looked completely healthy. MadBum's fantasy owners just got a huge boost.

• His command is still a bit erratic, but Oakland's Sean Manaea is clearly working through his recent struggles. Manaea has very good stuff, but the southpaw can still get out of sync at times. I expect improvement moving forward.

• While he's still a top shelf pitcher when available, Clayton Kershaw is expected to be out another month, this time with a lower back strain. This is deteriorating into a lost season, as injuries have become increasingly problematic. I think I'm about ready to move him out of the ace fantasy pitcher tier for next year.

• It's possible Alex Cobb is beginning to pitch like the Orioles were hoping he could when they signed him heading into this season. His last couple of outings, especially his most recent start against the Mets have been promising. He really struggled with command early on, but I think he's getting into rhythm.

• After all the anticipation, the Cardinals will have wait a little longer to employ the services of Alex Reyes. After one start, he went back on the disabled list and required surgery to repair a torn tendon. The anticipated recovery time should see him fully ready for spring training, but he will have missed two years.