This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Are you the guy (or gal) who explodes into a huge grin, and maybe even cheers with a fist pump when a batter corkscrews into the batter's box while flailing at a wicked curveball that started waist high and ended up in the dirt? Of course you are! Is the wallpaper in your cave covered with a series of K's facing forward and backward? Go ahead, admit it! Did you name your "K-9" Slider just because it was the first thing that came to mind when you heard that pet label K/9, and 12.3 just didn't seem like an appropriate moniker for your pooch? Yep, you can't fool us! Nothing is better than a good strikeout, and you can't get enough. You have to have more! Let's take a look.
Strikeouts are a scoring category, but there are other good things too:
Strikeouts, which admittedly can require more pitches to collect than a ball put in play, have a lot of built in advantages, since pitchers typically do what they feel they need to do in order to reduce the number of runs allowed. When you're in a jam, a strikeout can come in very handy. But beyond that, those strikeouts will be pretty useful in avoiding jams altogether. If you pitch six innings (18 outs), and record 10 strikeouts, that means batted balls only had a chance of finding grass eight times. I don't know about you, but I hate watching an inning where base runners came from every direction as ground balls snuck through a deficient infield, and fly balls dropped between two outfielders before one bad pitch put three or four runs on the board. Give me the strikeouts.
So, when people ask what you look for in a pitcher, tell them strikeout rate is right at the top of the list. It probably won't be possible to effectively build staff exclusively with high strikeout pitchers, but you should look for arms that have the potential to improve in that category. Let's face it, with the exception of a dropped third strike - okay, I'll take my chances with those - not many bad things can happen to a pitcher when the umpire rings up a hitter. I want to lead my league in strikeouts. There are some factors to the contrary, but I think you can see how strikeouts can also be a very positive influence on ERA and WHIP (assuming the strikeouts aren't accompanied by too many walks). In some ways a high strikeout starting pitcher can be a four-category fantasy producer. Make being among the leaders in the strikeout category a mission throughout the season and I think you'll find that your chances for success will benefit.
Here are things to watch for when evaluating the potential for strikeouts:
- Look for the guy who can effectively work up in the strike zone. That makes it important for the pitcher to be comfortable working up and to have either a lot of movement or a lot of velocity, or both. If you don't have the movement and velocity to live up there, even a small mistake in location will grow wings.
- Now that you are looking for high velocity, I am going to temper that by saying I also want a couple of pitches with low velocity, but are delivered with the same motion and arm speed. A straight blazing fastball alone won't generate a high strikeout rate against major league hitters.
- Let's take this one step further - even a guy with an average strikeout rate can induce a swing and a miss at a critical point in a game when the outcome hangs in the balance. That's the basis for "pitching to contact" - pitch to contact when you can, and get the strikeout when you must. Always watch for pitchers who have high success rates when the count is in their favor.
- Finally, walks have to be addressed. By definition, a strikeout pitcher pitches away from contact, and that usually means nibbling on the corners, and pounding away at the very top of or very bottom of the strike zone. Walks will happen. Obviously too many are counterproductive, but I can be a bit forgiving here.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- The Cardinals have now lost Adam Wainwright for the season, and obviously replacing his production in a fantasy rotation will be nearly impossible. This should solidify the spot of Carlos Martinez, and might open the door for lefty Marco Gonzalez, at least until Jaime Garcia returns. Both Martinez and Gonzalez have considerable upside so they deserve your attention.
- Similarly, the Dodgers lost Brandon McCarthy for the season. They have plugged in Scott Baker for now - and he had success several years ago, the last time he was healthy - but this probably (hopefully) accelerates the anticipated debut of Zach Lee. Further, and maybe, just maybe, it might move Julio Urias closer to the major leagues, albeit probably not in the first half.
- Let's continue with our rotation of recent disabled list additions by adding the Reds' Homer Bailey to the list. He started the season on the DL, made two lackluster starts, and is now down with elbow issues that could cost him the season. It appears Mike Lorenzen will get the first shot at filling the slot, but he, like their top pitching prospects like Raisel Iglesias and Robert Stephenson would probably benefit from more developmental time in the minors.
- This is probably a good time to bring up the name of Cole Hamels. The Phillies want to deal him. He would like to be dealt. The price tag is surely high, and has probably gone higher over the past few days. Some contender is going to pay the price, and I look for him to change uniforms before the calendar changes to June. On another team, his value takes a significant jump.
- Over in the American League, Hishashi Iwakuma hit the disabled list in Seattle. Right now they are utilizing Roenis Elias, but he's just a placeholder, or at least that's what they would like him to be. Hopefully Iwakuma will be back soon, because there isn't much help on the horizon. They do have Danny Hultzen, once a very highly regarded prospect, but he is rehabbing from shoulder surgery that cost him all of last season. He is progressing but probably not close.
- Toronto may be looking for a boost, albeit not from injuries. Aaron Sanchez has struggled and might be better suited to the bullpen, at least for now. The question is, who would inherit his rotation spot? The best arm in the organization today, Jeff Hoffman, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and probably isn't an option this year. They might have a look at Marco Estrada who could be scary in a homer haven like the Rogers Centre, or maybe Liam Hendricks, but he is probably better suited to his current long relief role.
- Unlike the teams mentioned above who are searching high and low for ways to plug holes in their collective dams, Tampa Bay is actually welcoming pitchers back to the mound. Drew Smyly is already back, Alex Colome is expected back later this week, and Alex Cobb could be back in mid-May. Colome isn't a major fantasy factor, but Cobb, and to a lesser extent, Smyly, can be contributors.
The four pitchers listed above who this week alone are headed for a long term or season-ending trip to the disabled list account for about $70 on draft day in a standard mixed auction league. If you add in key others who folded earlier, guys like Yu Darvish, Marcus Stroman, Zack Wheeler, Justin Verlander, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the cash register rings loudly indeed. You have to be flexible and fluid; ready to adjust.
The Endgame Odyssey:
Injuries (and ineffectiveness) have also been raising their ugly heads at the back of a few major league bullpens. The Blue Jays announced that Miguel Castro will pitch in lower leverage situations for now, and they will "try" Brett Cecil again. The young Castro has the stuff, but lacks the experience. I would guess he will be back, assuming the Jays don't really change course and move Aaron Sanchez back to the pen. With Joe Nathan done for the season, Joakim Soria is no longer an interim closer - he should be a lock for saves as long as his health holds up. Adam Ottavino didn't last long in Colorado before making a trip to the disabled list. Ottavino may be out longer than 15 days but there probably isn't a need to rush the waiver wire for John Axford. The Dodgers lost their fill-in closer Joel Peralta, and several arms like Chris Hatcher, Yimi Garcia, and maybe J.P. Howell could see the odd chance until they finally get Kenley Jansen back - hopefully in a couple of weeks or less. Mark Melancon is supposedly healthy, but his velocity remains well below normal. Tony Watson is the favorite for saves should an opportunity arise, but what about fireballer Arquimedes Caminero? He too has the stuff, but not the experience. Arizona has to be concerned about Addison Reed. He has kept the ball in the park this season, but a 2.17 WHIP isn't very healthy. He has adjusted his motion to reduce stress on his shoulder so hopefully things will improve as he moves forward, but this is a case to monitor closely.
