Mound Musings: Building a Championship Team – Part 2

Let me preface this edition of the Mound Musings column with all due apologies to players in redraft leagues. Many of you know, I play almost exclusively in keeper and/or dynasty formats, with auction drafts. My approach is therefore pretty skewed to building winners, which is quite different from drafting a team for today only. That said, I would like to share some of the things I have learned in over 30 years of fantasy baseball competition that might help you build a championship team.

Last week we reviewed things like determining competitive status this year and roster management necessary for building a championship team for the future. This week, the focus turns to uncovering actual pitchers who deserve to be targets in your team-building process. Everyone wants to be in the hunt as quickly as possible, so identifying the best pitchers to go after, and perhaps more importantly, recognizing pitchers who might look good on the surface but probably don't have the skills to help you long term, paves the most efficient path to winning.

Use your assessment skills to assign pitchers to projected tiers.

When scouting pitchers, I assign them to tiers. Those tiers can be plural because I will sometimes assign a current tier, and if I see significant room for improvement, I might assign a higher future tier. For example, a young pitcher might have the make-up today to be Tier 3, but there may be factors that I feel could lead to a ranking of Tier 2. In redraft leagues, that future ranking might not be very important, but when working on building a keeper or dynasty team, it can be extremely valuable.

The tiers I use are roughly based on the 20-80 scouting system, where a grade of 80 for some aspect of the pitcher's game would rank him among the very best in baseball, and a grade of 20 would probably eliminate him from ever reaching the major leagues. Both extremes are pretty rare. So, if a pitcher is ranked Tier 1, you might equate that to owning a guy who can lead your staff. This is a true "ace" like Chris Sale or Max Scherzer. Obviously, Tier 1 pitchers aren't going to be available on the waiver wire. They went in the early rounds of your draft, and they were probably very pricey. However, there may be pitchers of this caliber coming up, and that's what we're looking for.

Pitchers in Tier 2 are (or should be) solid starting pitchers who can help your fantasy team. They take a regular turn, typically perform at a useful level with quality starts, a decent WHIP and ERA, and a solid strikeout rate. You might consider them the "bread and butter" pitchers who are prominent on successful fantasy staffs. Interestingly, pitchers who can perform at this level (while being underestimated by your competitors) are typically key targets for drafts, trades and waiver wire moves as you build your future championship pitching staff. Conversely, a pitcher with a Tier 2 price tag, but who doesn't stack up to those expectations in your analysis, needs to be avoided. A good example of the former classification would be Gerrit Cole, who has often displayed considerable upside in the past and would probably be considered a graduate to Tier 1 at this point, while a pitcher who is somewhat consistently overrated, perhaps someone like Dylan Bundy, might be a pitcher to avoid or use as trade bait.

Tier 3 hurlers make up the biggest group of MLB starting pitchers. They are probably in a major league rotation, and they have the ability to provide, at least occasionally, quality innings, but there is generally a flaw in their game. They are likely inconsistent, they might have major problems maintaining their release point leading to higher WHIPs, high pitch counts and shorter outings, or maybe they just don't miss enough bats to help much in the strikeout category – a serious flaw in today's fantasy game – which can also make them very hittable in any given start. The question you have to ask with this tier is: Does this guy have the raw skill set to move up to Tier 2 someday? Or, better yet, are his positives so hidden right now that he could potentially even jump to Tier 1? If the answer is yes, this pitcher goes on your target list. Theoretically, the price tag should offer huge value, and that is the objective to always keep in mind.

Then we come to Tier 4. Tier 4 starters might have some modest skills that can make them at least mildly interesting, albeit not someone I would want in my rotation if I were shooting for a title this year. Avoiding Tier 4 pitchers is critical when fielding a contending team, because these are the guys who can do more harm than good. A Tier 4 pitcher can sabotage your stats and erase the positive stats from your better starting pitchers. However, if there's any reason for optimism (and with these guys you need to be very discriminating), they can be unparalleled bargains. Young pitchers with formerly notable skills just returning from long-term injuries often fall into this category if their struggles appear to be related to their getting back into game shape. They are Tier 4 in name only, unlike the genuine Tier 4 pitchers who are probably better suited to Triple-A or perhaps long relief duty if in the majors. Arms you might currently be monitoring include names like Carlos Rodon, Alex Cobb, Julio Urias or perhaps even Alex Meyer.

Here are the primary criteria for assessing possible starting pitcher targets.

• Check the tool box: There are several factors to consider when deciding whether a pitcher is likely to enjoy success in the starting rotation, but it all needs to begin here. If a mechanic has only a hammer and a screwdriver, he's likely to be vulnerable to balky nuts and bolts. It's much the same with pitchers. When evaluating, first look for the ability to throw a minimum of three pitches. At least to some extent, more is even better. Hitters are at an advantage when they only need to concern themselves with one or two pitches. Keep in mind, the pitcher needs to display enough confidence in his repertoire to throw any of his three or more pitches in any count. Further, he will need pitches that are useful against hitters from both sides of the plate. Usually, that means a fairly well developed change-up, with a quality breaking ball and of course a good fastball. If a pitcher has the depth of repertoire, all the better, but watch to see if that third or fourth pitch shows potential. Developing skills can equate to increased value.

• Mistake insurance: It's not necessary to have a blazing fastball, but it helps. There have been many pitchers who enjoyed success with modest velocity on their fastballs, but velocity can overcome those occasional mistakes. Hitters make a living punishing pitchers who make mistakes. Every pitcher will make mistakes – the bad ones more frequently than the good ones – but a fastball in the mid-upper 90s allows the hitter less time to react and take advantage of the mistake. When part of a well-developed repertoire, a fastball with hop is certainly a very useful weapon. Most MLB batters can hit a fastball, regardless of the velocity, but as part of the whole package, a good one is a big advantage. Note, a fastball that is too straight (lacks movement) can be a concern.

• Hit that glove: Here's a tip that's sometimes overlooked when assessing a pitcher's likelihood of success. First, be sure you understand the difference between "command" and "control" – terms that are sometimes used interchangeably. Control means the pitcher generally throws pitches in the strike zone. Command means they throw pitches to specific spots within the strike zone. When scouting a pitcher, watch his catcher. A pitcher with excellent command will hit the catcher's target consistently. The best ones obviously stay away from the middle of the plate, but they also display the ability to work the inside and outside edge of the strike zone. For me, a pitcher gets a considerable amount of extra credit if he's equally adept at working up and down in the strike zone. Changing a hitter's eye level makes his job considerably more difficult. Watch the catcher, and if he's diving to receive pitch after pitch, the hurler may lack the command to avoid those mistakes batters are looking for – at least today. Lack of command is a frequent challenge for pitchers who have missed considerable time due to injury, so look for hints that their command will improve as the rust comes off.

• The K is King: Did you know that for the first time in history, during the month of April, hitters struck out more times than they collected hits? Yes, that's pretty amazing, but it appears to be the future of the game. Strikeouts have always been the glam of the pitching game, but with the new focus on swinging for the fences, with exit velocity and angle being all the rage, increased strikeouts are the natural result on the other side. But, looking at that from a purely fantasy point of view, pitchers without the ability to accumulate strikeouts will have reduced value. Most leagues include strikeouts as a scoring category, so if the pitcher you are tracking appears incapable of generating close to a strikeout per inning, you may need to bump him down a notch on your target list. Very few bad things happen to a pitcher when he rings up a strikeout, but strikeouts can require more pitches, increasing pitch counts and shortening outings, so strikes and efficiency are coupled. Keep track of the pitcher's swinging strike rate. Swings and misses help keep pitch counts under control.

• Playing the angles: This category is a bit more difficult to define. An "angle" is an edge that proves itself useful over time. You'll likely develop your own, but I'd like to mention a couple of my favorites. Regular readers will recognize the "changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes" angle that is based on the possible advancement (or rejuvenation) of a pitcher with skills who has been generally underperforming. Sometimes it's clicking with a new coach or teammate, or it might be a more positive clubhouse atmosphere if a pitcher goes from a less competitive team to a contender. Our current case study is Matt Harvey, who wore out his welcome with the Mets, and is now a project for the Reds. That wouldn't have been my first choice of new organizations, but we'll see. Another favorite is the injury rehab timeline, specifically for the very common Tommy John procedure. I have found that full recovery takes 18 to 24 months. While the pitcher often returns in about a year, it might be an additional year before recovery is complete. That often means many would-be suitors will be disappointed and lose interest when the pitcher's initial peripherals are weak. The bottom line is, you have an opportunity to swoop in for a bargain buy. Again, these are just examples, so keep an open mind to angles you find profitable.
  

• With Clayton Kershaw hitting the disabled list after suffering biceps tendonitis, there are rumblings asking if he's slipping from elite status. I wouldn't be too quick to make that call. The Dodgers have become notorious for using the shortened disabled list stays to manage their pitcher's workloads.

• The waiver wire in your league has probably been abuzz with owners seeking the services of the Yankees' Domingo German. He's not an elite prospect, but he does own an assortment of pitches deep enough to provide him with some chance to contribute fantasy help, especially pitching in from of that offense.

• Both the Giants and fantasy owners got some good news on Johnny Cueto, who hit the disabled list with a sore elbow. The fear, of course, was the possibility of Tommy John surgery, but after seeing the specialists, it was deemed a strain, not a tear. He's expected to miss six weeks.

• Boston's David Price was scratched from his most recent scheduled start with numbness in his pitching hand. He has struggled lately, so there's certainly reason for concern among fantasy owners. However, he was diagnosed with mild carpal tunnel syndrome, so hopefully it won't present significant problems.

• I had the opportunity to watch Nick Pivetta's start against the Giants the other night, and while that's not the scariest offense, he does continue to impress me with his improving command. He's an example of a pitcher who has moved up from Tier 4 to Tier 3 and might even take another step with ongoing progress.

• Last week I was finally able to acquire James Paxton in my home league. I have been zeroed in on him for some time, and I was concerned that his 16-strikeout effort might put his owner off of a trade, but it happened. And then, well let's just say I'd love to see more zeroes in his future outings. He has Tier 1 stuff.